Towards 2026, the “fifty-fifty-five” will begin。
It just took placeEconomics working sessionThe reference to “integrated domestic economic efforts and the international economic and trade struggle” was added, emphasizing “integrated development and security”。
Among the eight priorities for next year, “domestic demand leadership” has been given top priority, requiring “to work to stabilize the size of the new-born population” and then to introduce “alert rates” and “strengthen to stabilize the real estate market”。
What signals have been sent by big foreign players competing with science and technology, the demand for economic transformation and upgrading, and important conferences
First, to make it clear that “strengthen to stabilize the real estate market”, then to mention “surrenders” and to release a positive signal from the “stable building market”。
The absence of a reference to real estate at this important previous meeting was a cause for concern. This return to real estate remains under the mandate of “safe management of risk in the focus areas”。
This year, “investing in stabilizing the real estate market” goes further than last year, with the word “investing” highlighting policy resolve。
Although there is no mention of anecdotal housing interest rate, there is a clear direction for short-term policy:
One is to control increments, to remove stocks, to supply. This means that the supply of new housing in most cities will be reduced。
Second is the collection, which encourages the acquisition of stock of commodity houses, with a focus on secure housing。
The “national team collection” would provide unprecedented stimulus to real estate if it were to land on a large scale, and the market was expected to reach its bottom。
The long-term goal of real estate is a “new model” in which “good house” construction, urban renewal, lease and purchase are on the rise。
Second, it was proposed that “advocacy for positive marriage and fertility should be promoted and that efforts should be made to stabilize the size of the newly born population”。
Over the past three years, the country's population was 9. 56 million, 9. 02 million and 9. 54 million, respectively, at a level of more than 9 million。
The size of the birth population cannot be reduced, and a strong policy is needed to build a productive society from marriage to childbirth to full parenting coverage。
Over the past year, a series of major initiatives have been launched, pre-school education has taken the first step free of charge, long-known child-care benefits have landed, and marriage has been “nationalized + eliminated” ..
With a series of major incentives, the number of marriages has rebounded this year, reaching 5. 152,000 in the first three quarters, an increase of 405,000 in the same period。
Of course, from a short-term rebound to a long-term reversal, there is still a long way to go and “investment in people” needs to be added。
Thirdly, monetary easing, with the addition of “low interest rates” and “reasonable price recovery” are also included in the target。
It was noted that the continued implementation of a moderate easing of monetary policy, the promotion of stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices were important considerations of monetary policy, and the flexible and efficient use of a variety of policy instruments, such as the interest-rate reduction and reduction rates, were needed to maintain liquidity。
The fed has just announced a reduction in interest rates, which have been reduced three times during the year and have been reduced six times since september 2024。
While interest-rate reductions will decline in the coming years, easing will be the dominant melody in the trump era。
The fed's interest rate reduction is tantamount to opening up a space for global interest rate reductions, and we are no exception。
Of course, the more important issue than monetary easing is price, which is the key to breaking the cycle of deflation。
Cpis and ppis can strongly reshape social expectations if they both return to a reasonable range and the GDP deflation index returns positive。
Fourth, stimulating consumption is once again placed at the top of the annual agenda and elevated to a new level of “maintenance of domestic demand”。
As officially stated, “the impact of changes in the external environment has deepened, and domestic supply and demand contradictions are accentuated”。
In the past, it was often said that “bundling domestic demand”, this time explicitly being “dominant domestic demand”, shows that consumption is becoming the first driver of economic growth。
In an era driven by foreign trade, coastal cities were wiped out。
In a consumption-driven age, economic power, income levels, employment space and population size will be key elements of urban competition。
Of course, consumption is a function of income. The need to stimulate consumption was not only a matter of policy but, more crucially, of income, and “the development and implementation of income-generation schemes for urban and rural residents” was mentioned。
Five of them, beijing, shanghai, the great bay region and hainan were named and given different roles。
The meeting noted the establishment of the international centre for science, technology and innovation in beijing (kyo jinyi), shanghai (long triangle) and hong kong bay。
As the only three major world-class urban groups in the country, the kyouta, the long triangle and the bay region are both economically important towns and science centres。
In the past, cities competed for large capital investments, in the future for innovation, with new and future industries becoming key, and the advantages of the three urban clusters becoming more prominent。
Hainan also appeared in the mandate of “continue to open up to the outside world”, where it was proposed to “strengthen the construction of a free-trade port in hainan”。
In mid-month this month, the hainan free trade port is about to be closed and, as the only free-trade port with a chinese character, has a heavy role to play in detecting the road。
It is worth mentioning that the meeting also included as its annual mandate “maintenance of coordinated development, promotion of urban-rural integration and regional linkages” the strengthening of the coordination of priority urban clusters and the deepening of cross-regional cooperation。
This means that next year, and even over the next five years, “corporatization development” will become the mainstream of urban competition, and “precipitate wealth after wealth” will be the trend。
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