After the arrival of the “article 7” new deal, mr. Wang was finally determined to change his house. The sudden increase in the number of viewers in his home's old house, which raised his confidence in the switch, while fearing that the new house in his sight would be ahead of him, made a decisive deposit. Mr. Wang's experience is a microcosm of the city of the central cities of beijing, shanghai and shenzhen since spring 2026。
When the market discusses whether the “light spring” is really coming, the word “stable up” becomes the central entry point for observing the current real estate market. The signal behind this is much more complex than surface data。
From a policy-driven perspective, it's an accurate “directed irrigation”
Since 2026, it has been no longer a policy to stabilize the city of buildings, but rather to “precision drip irrigation” targeting different cities and populations. By the end of the first quarter, more than 100 municipalities (countys) across the country had some 160 policies, the core logic of which was “to control increments, de-stocks, good supplies as a result of the city's tactics”。
For example, shanghai's “article 7” reduced the length of non-household social insurance in the outer ring from three years to one year, raising the initial srf loan line to 2. 4 million; shenzhen's new deal allowed a residence permit to purchase a dwelling in the core district and raised the spf loan line to a maximum of $3. 51 million; and guangzhou introduced an innovative “sale new” subsidy of 1 per cent of the total new housing loan, with a single set of up to $30,000。
The precision of the policy is directly reflected in the data: in shanghai, in march, 31,000 second-hand rooms were sold, up from the same level in the last five years; in beijing, in march, the second-hand housing network signed 19886 units, an increase of 144. 6 per cent. The policy “portfolio” has effectively reversed the pessimism of local markets and provided the most direct impetus for the recovery of trade。
For all parties in the market, the temperature difference is more real than the mean temperature
The warming of the market is not inclusive, and the perception of the different participants is very different, creating a distinct “temperature difference”。
The dimensions of professional interpretation, optimistic and cautious consensus and disagreement
There is a clear division of market views on the sustainability and meaning of “stable price increases”。
Optimists believe that endogenous energy is building up. An analysis by song guang network indicates that the stock of second-hand houses in the core cities has declined, supply and demand have improved, and the return on rent has been close to the rate of interest on home-buying loans, creating up-to-date dynamism. According to csi, the prices of second-hand houses in the core cities have stopped falling, the confidence of buyers has increased and the industry boom cycle has resumed。
Precautionary considered that the rehabilitation base was not yet solid. Researcher zolinhua of the institute of social sciences noted that there were positive signs of improvement in the building market, but it was not sufficient to achieve overall stabilization and vulnerability to warming. The centre for housing policy research in guangdong province, li yuja, also suggested that the sustainability of the upturn in front-line urban prices remains to be seen。
Official and mainstream agencies are more cautious in their tone, emphasizing this as “point repair”. At the 28 april meeting of the central political bureau, “to try to stabilize the real estate market”, the four major media subsequently converged, pointing out that the market was “stablely growing”, but at the same time clearly focused on the core cities, while the entire country was still at the bottom-up stage。
The data also support this conclusion: in march, out of 70 cities, only 13 cities experienced an increase in the price of secondary dwellings。
Comprehensive judgement: this is not a complete reversal, but the beginning of deep divisions
The most critical signal released by the “stable price rise” of second-hand houses in the core cities is that china’s real estate market is entering a new phase of “diversion” as a normality, in departure from the old cycle of popping and falling。
The current “stable price rise” is therefore a positive and necessary stage in the market rehabilitation process. It gives the market a break and buys time and space to follow a longer-term shift in the health model that is dependent on the growth of income and on the dynamism of urban development. For home buyers, this may be the beginning of an era of more selective, focused asset core values。
