Foreword
In march 2026, the average price of second-hand dwellings was $12,792, a figure that fell by 8. 55 per cent over the same period, with a house of 2 million and a bank account shrinking by more than 150,000。
However, the second-hand ring in the first-line cities rose by 0. 4 per cent, while the shanghai deal of 31,000 units was five years high, policies were working and markets were divided。
How long will this warmth last? How much is the $2 million house in your hand worth in five years
Fulfilling illusions, divided truths
The policy placed a price on the house, but it was not worth it. In march 2026, the national average was $12,792 per square metre, a figure that was 8. 55 per cent lower than the same period last year。
If there was a house of 2 million on hand, in one year alone, the books were missing more than 150,000, and the data was cold as iron。
On the other side, the price of second-hand houses in the first-line cities was 0. 4 per cent higher than it had been, shanghai was stronger, 31,000 units were sold in a single month, breaking through the ceiling for almost five years, and in the same spring, two completely different images。
Why is this fragmentation happening? There are people in the bottom and there are people fleeing。
As soon as spring was over, shanghai came up with a “seven inches” for non-local households to buy a home, and the social security contribution period was cut down from three years to one year, the threshold was lowered and the waiters began to move on。
Throughout march, 14 of the 70 cities in large and medium-sized cities experienced an increase in the price of new housing, which did burn。
But it only lit up some people's confidence, and the rest of the place was cold like another season。
The three and four-line cities have had their stock de-mining cycles for more than 30 months, with a security line of 18 months, and their house prices, even if dropped for more than two years, have not stopped the downward trend。
The price has fallen by more than 60 per cent, and a house worth 2 million in the year is not going to be sold back, and the income on the 23rd and 4th line is between 20 and 25, and the first-line city is even higher, reaching 40。
This means that an ordinary family can squeeze into a house without eating or drinking for decades。
Once the market begins to squeeze bubbles away from income floor prices, it returns, but there are nearly 800 million square metres of national housing stock。
Although at the end of march, for the first time in 52 years, there had been a decline in the area to be sold, that was only a breath, not a turning point, and the rescue policy was like throwing a stone over the lake, but the temperature on the lake floor had not changed。
The person who really determines the value of the house is never the policy, but the person who connects the wheel, and the person who transmits the wheel is getting smaller。
Four variables, one direction
The fall in the demographic dividend is the ultimate driver of the long-term adjustment of housing prices. By the end of 2025, more than 310 million people over 60 years of age in china will have reached 400 million by 2035, and the elderly will have their own homes and will not need to buy them。
On the other hand, young people are rapidly decreasing, with 175 million after 90 and only 145 million after 00, and the total number of people who have just had to buy a house is shrinking in visible terms。
The ministry of housing and construction had published a silent figure: there were 600 million homes in the country, and, according to the most conservative estimates, 5 persons per house, or enough to fit 3 billion people, while china currently had a population of 1. 4 billion。
The houses were long gone, and what was missing were those who had the will to go in, and more precisely those who had the will to buy houses in “unattended cities”。
The number of urban housing units in the country ranges between 350 million and 400 million, and the number of urban households is about 490 million, with an average of almost one unit per household。
On average, however, the cities of beijing, shanghai and shenzhen, where there are only 0. 8 units, cranes and jade doors, have exceeded 1. 5 units, and the supply and demand balance between the cities has long been broken。
The housing problem is essentially a human one, where people go, where the money goes, where the house price goes, where people go, where the money goes, where the money goes, where the money goes, and where the house price is only a downward spiral。
In addition to the population, there is an account that many people have not done seriously, that is, to hold costs。
A flat of 2 million, with a down payment of 30 per cent, requires a loan of 1. 4 million, calculated at 3. 1 per cent of the latest first set of mortgage rates in april 2026, and interest for five years, approximately 220,000。
This, together with property charges, maintenance funds, various taxes and charges and depreciation, resulted in a five-year total holding cost of over 250,000 easy。
What does that mean, at least 12 per cent increase in the house over five years, so that you don't lose money, just look at the book numbers as strong, spend the money, and realize that you're losing。
Most people have never counted this amount in the last two decades, because the house prices rose too fast at that time, and in 2000 they were $34,000 per square metre in beijing。
What is now, 670,000, is almost 20 times higher, and from 2012 to 2022, housing prices rose by almost 10 years, buying a house is a steady gain and hoarding is an added value。
But that logic has come to an end, and the currency is still loose, and m2 has risen from 10 trillion to over 30 trillion and more than 30 times, and part of that money is indeed still supporting the prices of houses in the core cities。
But it is no longer the same water ticket. It used to be high, it is shallow, three expectations have survived the past two decades, and at least two are now weak and divided, with only certainty。
One up, three down, four down, whose $2 million is shrinking
It's also 2 million, in different cities, with a very different outcome five years later。
At the heart of the front-line cities, the three rings in beijing, the shanghai ring and shenzhen south mountain, where population continues to flow, there is almost no increase in land, and the denuclearization cycle is only 8 to 10 months。
Housing prices here will not increase significantly over the next five years, but will not collapse, with moderate increases averaging around 2 to 3 per cent per year, with five years of cumulative value ranging from 2. 2 to 2. 3 million, and stable, though not winning inflation。
At the heart of the first-line peri-urban and the second-line zones, such as qingpur in shanghai, the hangzhou river and chengdu, two million houses down five years, at a rate of between 2. 16 and 2. 24 million。
In five years' time, the main urban areas of the ordinary second and third lines, such as the centres of fat chai, changsha and zhengzhou, are estimated to be in the range of 1. 9 to 2. 1 million。
The most disturbing is the category of three or four peri-urban areas, county towns, old and uncooperative suburbs, with a evaporation cycle of more than 30 months, nearly twice the alert line, with a five-year drop of between 10 and 20 per cent。
Two million people went in, and five years later only 1. 6 million, or even less, had fallen by more than 60 per cent in the riying province。
And it's not the scariest thing to do: it's almost zero liquidity, it's six months of business, and it's normal for a year to be unsuspected, and it's more than price: the house itself。
Old houses with more than 20 years of age, without elevators and poor property, sell 5 to 10 per cent less in five years than high-quality housing in the same district, while new houses with five to ten years of age not only remain valuable, but can sell 5 to 8 per cent more in five years。
Homes return to their homes. Value reverts to choice
Japan has given a classic reference that since 2008, its population has gone into negative growth, but housing prices in the tokyo nucleus have risen since 2013 and are still high today。
The decline in the total population does not mean that the housing prices of all cities have collapsed, and people have not disappeared, but are concentrated。
China is following the same path, with long triangles, beads, and sungsu, and net inflows, while the rest of the population is being lost silently。
Between 2026 and 2032, the journey took place in three stages, the first two years, the stabilization of the base, the halting of the core cities, the continuation of the three- and four-line inventory, the middle three years, the mild rehabilitation period。
At the heart of the first and second lines, prices began to rise mildly, and during the last two years, the sedentarization period saw a steady rise in core assets and continued depreciation of surplus assets。
Previously, the question was whether it would go up, and now it would have to be considered whether it would sell or not, liquidity, more important than the fall, an increase of less than 12 per cent, working in banks and properties。
Thus, the framework for decision-making on the purchase of a house requires a new dimension, moving the house back from investment to consumer goods, comfortable, accessible and well-equipped, and these residential experiences are themselves of real value。
The dimensions of opportunity costs are much more important than the costs of sinking, and the 500,000 have disappeared and have nothing to do with any of the next options。
Concluding remarks
The value in five years depends not on how much it is worth, but on when you think about it。
Those who buy in the core zone do not necessarily win, those who buy in the outer suburbs do not lose. But those who have chosen, and those who have had their luck, face two entirely different decades。
When the dividends of urbanization recede, when demographic trends descend, when houses revert from investment to consumer goods, their core indicators are no longer listing prices, but trading cycles and depreciation. In the future market, the scarcest assets are not luxury houses, but residence options that are readily available。
