Investors who are still in the capital market today may have witnessed their own history many years later。
Recent overseas markets have been characterized as a wave of unevenness, a wave of futures triggered by the united states standard 500 index, the entry of a number of asia-pacific stock market indices into the technical bear market, such as japan, and a fall in crude oil futures prices by more than 30 per cent. Global capital markets have collapsed successively in rapid turmoil, and global investors have set in motion risk avoidance models, with risky assets having experienced rare setbacks for decades。
As a result, the a-stock market has also been plunged into a sustained broad-band shock after the boom。
On 9 march, stock a failed to withstand the impact of the storm in the overseas market, with the above-mentioned evidence once again failing at the 3,000 point mark, a sharp drop of 3. 01 to 2943. 29 points. The deeper evidence and the larger drop in the entrepreneurship boards fell by 4. 09 per cent and 4. 55 per cent, respectively, to 11108. 55 points and 2093. 06 points。
Wind statistics describe the “extremely poor” of the a stock of the day, with up to 3232 of the 3784 shares in the two cities falling and only 520 rising, meaning that 85 per cent of the shares in both municipalities are falling。
FromFinancial flowsIt appears above that the two cities had only major inflows of capital from the aviation shipping boards at the time, which was related to the sharp fall in crude oil prices, which investors considered to have fallen cheaper than water, in the interest of air shipping companies, which had lower costs and thus higher returns。
Among the remaining plates, there are large-scale net capital outflows from electronics, software, coupons and semiconductors, of which the net capital outflows from electronics exceed 10 billion yuan, or 15,911 million yuan。
Financial flows
At the same time, however, market delivery remains intense. According to the closing data released by the shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges on the evening of 9 march, the market value was 438,604 million yuan on that day, while the market value was 649,369 million yuan on that day, bringing the total value of the deal to 10,87,973 million yuan, returning to 1 trillion yuan。
At this point in time, there is no greater concern among investors who are still present than to what extent the peripheral markets will affect equity a
The chief strategic analyst of skywind securities, liu sunming, said to journalists: “there is no change in the country's fluid environment, primarily to see when the outbreak will stabilize abroad, which is currently uncertain, including the decline in oil and global stocks. If we can see where the epidemic is coming from, then unit a willIt's a fallbackI don't know
According to an analysis by chase portfolio adviser chen xiao hui, today the large disks are showing a serious setback and a downward trend in shares. Peripheral movements continued to fall, especially as international crude oil prices continued to fall by almost 40 per cent of the size of the space and the two municipalities jumped and left. The collective collapse of science and technology-related concepts, especially chips, has caused people to fall to ice points, with short-term palletization options to stop, and medium-term profit chips to be sold as profits continue to swallow, creating a multi-killing pattern. In addition, last weekend the business of coupons was profitable and did not stimulate the plates, and several of the top shares went down, and the liftings of small shares in the disc failed to activate the plates, leaving empty ends on the tailboard。
“the fact that the two cities are still the strongest in terms of disease concepts, such as masks and influenza resistance, which are already absolutely high hot spots and a haven for money on the ground, and that 5gs and ultra-high voltage are also at the end of the fence is enough evidence of market anxiety. The collapse of international oil prices in saudi and russian games was the largest decline in almost 30 years. Although the cause of the price game is price, the cause of the disease in europe and the united states is now out of control. Other countries have largely determined that negative economic growth will inevitably lead to a substantial decline in crude oil demand and that the economy may rapidly enter a state of austerity.”
Chen xiaohui believes that the crisis is also an opportunity, and that the epidemic is likely to bring china back to the world, and that a significant rise in international status has contributed to a more robust capital market, with a low-valued region of up to 3,000 points, a short-term support of 2900 points and a medium-term support of 2850-2870 points. Following the overnight developments in the united states stock market, which determines the opening of stock a tomorrow, concerns about the decisive pull-up of coupons and technology, especially in the latter case, where many powerful human species have fallen by more than 30 per cent, and have the momentum to rise back。
Turning to the impact of the collapse of overseas markets on share a, the point of view of wang drum, chief strategic analyst for producing securities, revealed cautious optimism。
In his view, the decline in the current round of overseas markets reflected mainly three points。
First of allGlobal marketsIn particular, the risk of increased volatility in the united states stock. In the short term, this is due to the emotional impact of public health events on investors. The medium-term perspective reflects the current high united states share and investor concerns about fundamentals。
Secondly, the proliferation of public health events is increasingly occurring in places where rapid fermentation is taking place overseas, particularly in europe。
Thirdly, public health events have raised concerns among investors about global aggregate demand, both for crude oil and for gold, reflecting, to some extent, global concerns about economic “deflation”。
Wang drum believes that for unit a, these external factors could become a stylistic sentiment for equity investors. In terms of fundamental aspects, however, the spring effects and public health events are the main causes of the overall decline in imports and exports, which, together with the gradual resumption of domestic work, will gradually diminish the impact of the events and will lead to a marked improvement in the economy from the previous period. In february, cpi, ppi and financial data will be available, and the expected changes in the basics of the country are of concern。
From a medium-term perspective, wang drum claims that the global “assetlessness” superimposes the advantage of the chinese system and that the best asset remains in the chinese stock market。
In order to mitigate its impact on the global economy, the major economies of the world have continued their monetary easing policies, further exacerbating the global “asset drain” situation. In this context, and in the light of the way public health events are dealt with, china’s institutional advantages and the right measures it has taken will gradually be recognized by global investors and will gradually reflect our institutional advantages. At the same time, china’s monetary policy space is more advantageous than that of other countries, and the value and attractiveness of the renminbi’s assets has increased further with the fed’s interest rate reduction, which has helped to boost global capital flows back to china, particularly the chinese stock market。
An analysis of zheng zheng zheng zheng zheng zheng zheng (zheng zheng zheng) indicates that the reason for today's sharp decline in the market is threefold。
The first is the worsening of the epidemic abroad, with 133 new deaths in italy, the highest rate of death worldwide, the expansion of the closure of the italian government and the spread of the epidemic abroad。
Second, following a rare collapse in international crude oil prices, and the collapse of the opec-russian reduction negotiations, saudi plans to increase the volume of crude oil production significantly and lower crude oil sales prices, which have affected the price of crude oil by a drop of nearly 40 per cent over two days, have further triggered concerns about global deflation
Third, there was a significant decline in overseas markets, with asia-pacific stock markets each falling by more than 3 per cent, the mantra index by more than 5 per cent and united states and european stock forwards by more than 4 per cent。
The agency believes that the short-term needs to wait for external shocks to ease, following up on countercyclical policies before and after the release of important domestic economic data。
In the light of the evolution of short-term markets, the expectations of economic downturns in overseas markets are increasing, and their sharp decline will affect equity a risk preferences and will have to wait for external shocks to ease. Based on the performance of the united states and a shares in 2000 and after the economic downturn in 2007, the a share probably fell simultaneously, but much less than the united states share. On the domestic front, important economic data will continue to be released in the coming week, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy in the first quarter of the year will gradually be felt, and countercyclical policies are expected to intensify. After the fed’s emergency interest rate fell, the scope for monetary policy easing was further opened, with monetary, fiscal, industrial, etc. In march and april all expected, and aggregate policies being relatively positive, helping to improve economic expectations and repair market risk preferences。
In the short term, market uncertainty is greater, while in the medium to long term, the current 300-deep valuation is lower than the 500 standard and has higher value for money. In terms of configuration, investors can meet two main lines of low layout. The first is infrastructure, real estate and finance associated with counter-cyclical policy additions, focusing on building materials, real estate, engineering machinery, construction, coupons, etc.; the second is medium-term layout growth, evidenced by a large trend in the style of growth as evidenced by relative changes in the entrepreneurship boards and depths of 300, and by the relatively strong spillover effects of the liquidity environment in the context of previous rounds of growth, with the positive deployment of growth units with performance and performance support in the near future, with attention to subdivisions such as tmt, advanced manufacturing, and medical services。
It should be noted that there is also pessimism in the market。
Hong zheng, managing director and head of the research department, believed that the current market had collapsed only as a first shock to finance. The second wave of shocks to industry, driven by the risk of price collapses, is all the more worrying。
On 9 march, he announced that the chinese stock market was now moving away from the fundamentals and the implicit expectations of bond pricing, while the risks of entrepreneurship bubbles increased. Continue to see if the united states shares can hold the 850 antenna. Hong zhen claimed that the chinese market, which was close to over-buying and even partially foaming, could not become a “safe haven” for the historic global market of over-sale。
