From mid-january of this year to the present, the price of raw pigs in the country has continued to decline and is now more than three months old。
Two years ago, in june, the highest profitability of the previous round of pig farming, when a pig could earn $1,000, what were the benefits of the current breeder? Did you suffer from the cycle of pigs that cost more and less
U kingsen runs a small farm of 40 pigs in the ning river district of tianjin city, and each year about 700 pigs are out of the field, and when the journalists saw him, he was looking at the fat and growing weight. He said that the price of raw pigs had declined from $7. 5 per pound at the beginning of the year and that the price of raw pigs had now fallen by $5, the lowest point in nearly eight years。
According to wu, the price of pigs had dropped by more than 30 per cent cumulatively in less than four months, the speed and magnitude of the price decline in the current round had been unexpected, and had not been experienced in more than a decade by him. The decline in prices had directly led to a decline in profits, with a pig earning $200 and $300 last year, and the best in 2016 earning more than $800 per pig. Today, however, pig farming has dropped the cost line, with a combined cost of $6. 2 per pound for feed, disease prevention and management, and labour, which is now a loss of $300 for a pig. Moreover, as the price of pigs continued to fall, so did the number of brokers who came to collect pigs, which he called three or four times at noon that day。
Chen yongyu: i'll give you $4. 80 for your pig. Yeah。
According to monitoring by the ministry of agriculture and rural development of the country's 500 trade markets, the national price of raw pigs fell from $7. 69 per pound in the second week of january 2018 to 16 consecutive weeks and 5. 3 per pound in the first week of may, a cumulative fall of 31. 1 per cent, a fall of 31. 1 per cent in the same year, and the price of pig grains fell by the cost line, with all-round losses beginning to occur。
Overcapacity
Interviews with farmers indicate that the price of pigs has fallen too quickly and that even now the reduction in production will not run out of cycle. So why did this round of pigs get down? Why is the price of raw pigs so fast? In the course of the investigation, journalists found that many farmers had expanded their farm size in 2017, of which hebei tangshan is one。
When the journalist met ishi guangchang, he was in the process of directing the workers at the expanded farm, and although he had invested over 30 million new plants last year, the infrastructure had not been perfected and the slow pace of construction had been linked to ishi guang's hesitation。
Pork farmers in tangshan, hebei province。
Ishi guangcheng calculated a bill and, at current prices, he would pay nearly $5,000 to an extended pig. So it's easy not to expand, but it's not easy to build new plants, so there's one set of basics。
And his failure was due to the high price of pork in 2016, when the net profit per pig was about a thousand dollars, and in 2017, when he was holding up his efforts to expand the original 700 or so pigs to 2,300, before the expansion of the factory had been completed, the price of pork had fallen all the way down, and the expansion had to go ahead, and it was rare to see him there。
In contrast to ishio guang's stop-up of the fence, zhao juntao has been able to reduce losses by taking advantage of its own production scale, and now has more than 2,000 pigs in his farm and up to 60,000 pigs in his field。
Zhao juntao: last year, we were able to make about 1,200 hits a week, and this year we're only six and seven hundred。
Zhao juntao was caught in the crossfire by falling prices and was now forced to act in self-help, planning to eliminate about one third of the pigs。
Zhao juntao, technical director of the rich tangshan, inc.: dismantling some low-yielding pigs, increasing some productivity and reducing costs so that we can survive this situation。
The overall price of pigs is falling cyclically
How can pigs' cycles, which often hurt farmers, pre-empt the risks of their cycles and be prepared? Here's what the industry thinks
Experts pointed out that, as higher prices in the previous period had stimulated the production of pigs in 2016 and 2017, particularly since the production capacity of large-scale farming enterprises had expanded more rapidly, seven of china's listed farming enterprises had posted more than 30 per cent in 2017 and had been at a higher level since the current year。
According to the national statistics office, the number of pigs produced in the quarter was 199830,000, an increase of 1. 9 per cent over the previous year, and 1. 54 million tons of pork, an increase of 2. 1 per cent over the previous year。
The aoc pig analyst summer morning: increased productivity in farming will lead to a steady increase in the overall supply of raw pigs in 2018 and even in 2019, with imports still at a high level, accounting for about 3 per cent of the total supply。
Expert analysis suggests that, as the market supply situation will continue in the short term, the overall price of pigs this year is expected to be on the cyclical path, but it is unlikely that it will continue to fall significantly。
Researcher at the drecton institute of information and agriculture: the overall consumption profile is relatively weak, the number of fresh products sold in slaughtering enterprises has been reduced by more than 10 per cent, the rate of digestion of raw pigs has been slow, and there is little room for improvement in the supply-side situation。
Tanko, director of the department of markets and economic information, ministry of agriculture and rural development: the overall price of pigs this year is expected to decline cyclically, with a low oscillation, but with little chance of continuing to fall。
The experts indicated that, in addition to promoting large scale farming, the break-up of the “pig cycle” requires the development of information services such as large data, the acceleration of the development of early warning systems for the price of pigs and the provision of as much information as possible to the relevant sectors and farmers about the market。
It's not easy to keep a pig. Don't mess with the wind
In the studios of the observatoire de la monopoly, the observatoire de la monopoly expressed the view that it is particularly difficult to keep pigs, especially healthy pigs, organic pigs, branded pigs, which are high-tech, and i have often told them that pig farming is high-tech and risky。
There was a steel company in china, and when the steel was lost, there was a lot of ground, and you were prepared to raise pigs. I said that you couldn't even make steel, and you wanted to raise pigs. It was even more difficult to keep them, remember ilding said i had to do it. It was not easy for him to raise them after years。
And now there are a lot of young people who don't know what a pig is and think that a farmer can do, and i certainly can do it, but it's not that simple, because it's a high technology, so i think we're talking about chinese people, and i think it's solid enough to do it in a business that you're good at. If you're looking for a wind, it's you, not pork。
