Ladies and gentlemen, there's been some big news in the industry。
On 14 may, the ministry of agriculture and rural development officially published the integrated management and implementation programme for pig production (revised in 2026). To put it simply — the country has come up with a clear direction for farmers who have been suffering for more than half a year — to “stomp on the brakes” on the falling price of pigs。
One: the price of a pig falls to "suspicious life" and the price is lost
Let's start with the background. What's the price of raw pigs falling lately? As at 13 may, the average price of pigs in the country was only $9. 58/kg, and in some areas it had even fallen to $9, a decade lower。
What does that mean? At current farm costs, there is a loss of $100 to $200 per pig sold. In the first quarter of 2026, 16 publicly traded pigs collectively suffered losses, with a combined loss of tens of millions of yuan for the head of the three giants。
After the spring of 2026, the price of pigs has fallen, and farming has gone from a micro-deficit to a deep-deficit, with a number of farmers having cash-flow pressures, some starting to compress in size and some even preparing to clear the field。
Ii. What has the programme adjusted
That is why the country has moved. I would like to highlight the core changes in the new programme:
First, once again, downputs keeper targets for pigs. The new programme sets the national level of normal stock retention for the full production of pigs at around 37. 5 million, a target that has been lowered since february 2024. Why is it down? Because of the significant increase in the productivity of pig production, the psy of the head pig (which provides the number of weaning piglets per pig per year) has generally exceeded 24, i. E., the same number of sows provides a much larger number of commercial pigs than in the past, and the real demand must be matched by lower holdings。
Second, tightening the ceiling on green areas and stricter regulation. The new programme is clear, with appropriate tightening of ceilings for green and yellow areas, and lower limits for yellow areas, with the establishment of a mechanism for the tiered movement of production capacity. The translation is that, in the past, the production capacity was slightly beyond normal range and may have been allowed to be in the “green light zone”, and now the area in the green area is narrower — the ceiling for normal fluctuations in production capacity was tightened from 105 per cent to 103 per cent from the past, and the ceiling for the yellow area was tightened from 110 per cent to 106 per cent. The excess space has been further compressed, and capacity reduction measures have to be initiated at various locations once it exceeds 103 per cent of normal holdings。
Third, the national pig farm remains intact. The new programme set the goal of stabilizing the national pig farm stock at more than 130,000, with a clear requirement that “the overall number of pig farms should be kept stable everywhere and that they should not be dismantled at will”. This is of particular importance for the pig farming district, which can no longer be closed in the name of environmental protection。
Fourth, strengthening the “window guide” for large pigs. The ministry of agriculture and rural development will direct large pig farming enterprises to undertake reduction commitments and strengthen their window guidance, while issuing early warning letters to areas with significant increases in production capacity。
Fifthly, there's a “tote” fuse. When the monthly load of pigs is below 92 per cent of the normal stock holdings, local authorities may grant a one-time, temporary assistance allowance for pig farms, as required, and additional credit may be granted to eligible farmers, with a discount allowance。
What does this have to do with ordinary farmers
The most immediate relationship is that the production of energy will be faster and the schedule for the recovery of pig prices may be earlier。
At present, there are around 3. 904 million female pigs in the country, although less than at the end of last year, there are still about 1. 5 million gaps in the process of de-mining according to the target of 375. 5 million. Once the new programme is put on the ground, more stringent capacity reduction measures will be initiated in various locations, with head-to-head pigs taking the lead in reducing production, and surplus capacity is expected to accelerate。
There is a basic pattern in the pig farming industry: the more thorough the production of the pig can be decomposed, the greater the scope for the subsequent rebound in the price of the pig. After the last depth of production depth, the price of pigs rebounded by over 80 per cent. With this upgrading of regulation, some of the high-cost and low-risk capacity will accelerate the exit from the market and it is expected that supply and demand patterns will gradually improve。
Moreover, if your farm is in a green zone and is currently dominated by market regulation, it will not be forced to intervene, but it may last for some time to be psychologically prepared. If you continue to have a high number of columns in your province, local policy measures will guide the scale of control。
Iv. We've started our operations everywhere
The new programme had just been released, but the accompanying measures had already moved forward。
The sichuan province has introduced a regulation on incentives for the stabilization of production capacity, which provides a one-time stabilization subsidy for farms of over 500 head per year, at a rate of $50 per head of capable mother and pig, to help them survive the “cold winter”。
Jiangxi province has established an integrated control mechanism for optimized production capacity of pigs, with approximately 1. 52 million anchors in 2026。
Regulatory measures are also being intensively developed in other provinces, and the next few months will see a “one-size-fits-all” pattern of pig production。
On the whole, the programme for the implementation of integrated regulation of fertilizer productive capacity (revised in 2026) has three main points of concern: a reduction in the normal stock retention target for pigs to 375. 5 million; tightening of the ceiling for green and yellow areas, with a further reduction in the capacity expansion space; and setting a reserve of 130,000 pig farms to stabilize the industrial base. This is both a response to the current low price of pigs and an early pattern of high-quality development of the pig industry in the future。
The message from this programme is clear for farmers: it is real, and there is hope that the price of pigs will warm up, but the process will not happen overnight. It is recommended that the market be viewed rationally, that production be organized rationally, that it not panic and that it not be blindly pressed。
Finally: how many people around you still insist on raising pigs
How are the pigs in your hometown? How many people are still in the village? Do you think this new energy management program can bring the price of pigs to a halt? Are you going to make it up this year
Welcome to the comment section about your real situation and your thoughts. Let's talk about it and get warm
A friend interested in the policy and market dynamics of the boar industry, who is not lost, the progress made in implementing the new programme, and the data on the evaporation of local capacities, will follow you first
