It has been a while since the second hand, which has, indeed, shown some signals that have to be said。
First of all, the number of second-hand deals in june and, as of june 27, 17,858 sets in the second-hand room in shanghai, yes, and 20,000 sets of rhythms. Based on average workdays and saturdays, the second-hand room will be around 20,500 units in june。
According to the ratio of 89 per cent between second-hand dwellings and second-hand dwellings in the last year, the last-hand dwellings were sold in 18,000 units. This is both a decline in the year-to-year and in the ring, and a median of almost five years。
Many times you find it difficult not to get the data, but how to understand them, how much is the 18,000 set, and what does it mean for the next market
01
From the most important point of view, what will be the next price
For a long time, we say the second-hand market is about the price, but it's not possible to get a direct export of the bargain. The so-called unoppressive price fluctuations that we see on the market are either a single source of housing or a double-processed drop, which is far too much。
So how does the real price work out, how the real heat is behind the 18,000 set of june markets, one answer to both questions。
The price in question is believed to be as volatile as any other commercial factor, and one dimension changes。
The most recent listings should have been in places i have not seen for almost a year. The largest second-hand stock of houses in the market today comes from chains, with 170,000 stock sets estimated at over 70% of the city’s stock。
The site is part of an off-grid display and an in-line broker who shows that there are around 110,000 housing units, which, by definition, represent second-hand price fluctuations across the city。
And this is the pattern of fluctuations in the listing price of the 110,000 housing units, which has reached a new low in almost a year。
See you in the data room
Even yang-chun is part of the bottom line of the stock, and has it been discovered that the current listing price has gone downwards by 5. 9 per cent compared to last june's. A combination of high levels of stock maintained behind them is backed up by the urgent needs of landlords for liquidity and replacement。
On the other side, we look at the bargaining space, where real bargaining space not only shows the landlord's mentality, but you also have some idea of the price volatility behind the deal。
Market-based bargaining space data are still too fragmented and largely derived from single-set cases. Chainers counted the 110,000 sets of landlords ' price adjustments, with 26,000 landlords opting for a price reduction in may, which averaged 3. 86 per cent, both in quantity and at a high level。
See you in the data room
You can see the mindset, but it is not the final bargaining space, where the real bargaining space has to go from a monthly offer to reverse his listing -- a difference in the exchange of scissors, with thousands of units in 170,000 units per month available to enter the deal, with around 25 per cent of the municipalities with a quarter of the market share。
And this part of the data is divided into the last listing -- the offer, the initial offer -- the deal, which can be seen as a downward swing, breaking through to 13 per cent in may。
Source: shanghai chainers
The equivalent of saying that if it initially listed 5 million, it could end up at 4. 35 million. I think you can also feel the second half of the price trend, without me saying, through the unrefuted trend of listing prices and the position of bargaining space, which has not been set because of seasonal factors, and even if the bargaining space has rebounded, you will clearly feel the temperature of the next half。
02
And then the market is probably going to get out of two。
First, some of the hard arguments of the market began to land hard at this point, and the first segmentation may have occurred in the outer regions。
We've heard many times about the speed of new home recognition and de-diplification that divides inside and outside the outer ring, but also second-hand. The same should be true of landlords who are selling out of the outer ring or intermediaries who work out of the outer ring. Two ring houses of the same age, size, type of community quality, which, in the absence of an additional school block, would probably have fallen more than the source of the outer ring。
For example, the most widely distributed 3 million top-down and lower-cost housing units in the trade-off structure, the price of a husband's house in the new city of songjiang fell by 7 to 10 per cent in comparison with the previous year, while the price of a husband's house in the country's gumei and longbar fell by 5 to 6 per cent in comparison. We've calculated the price of the outside ring for the same drop in june, not a small drop in the outer ring。
Look at the price of the last line, dr. Rabbit
The second category of non-improvement products is the second where differentiation occurs. Second-hand markets outside the site are beginning to divide in product form, and you will find that while large households are more resistant to falling, small households may be sacrificed first。
In the case of song river, for example, chainers have measured the average prices of different households in the song river region for the last five years. In terms of time horizons and the real trade-off averages provided by chainers, the fastest and slowest declines were in the first room。
Data from shanghai chainer
This data is valuable, in part as real market feedback to improve household values. I have asked the middle teachers why, first and foremost, the market needs to be improved. On the other hand, low-frequency transactions can be more stable in the face of market fluctuations in terms of market-based movements, as each set of units has a heavy reference object — a bargain。
Instead, the low-frequency movement of large households protects housing prices to some extent, and the reverse decline in the size of small households is beginning to appear. So you may not feel it in the last row, but these divisions are coming up in the next row。
03
But then there is a potential in the market to see when to see。
Full-dimensional data do not now look like no clients, but are still waiting for more customers. In fact, even now, as a result of expert speculation, there is a gambler mentality. The answer i can give is that market customers are still here, and that they're hanging。
It's been said over the past two years, but you may not be able to imagine how much attention has been paid to the house in those two years。
I've looked at the "persons of interest" of the shanghai chain house outside, that is, the data on the chain house page, which is different from the data that is now shown, and the click is on the client's own initiative, which in 2024 was 8-9 people/set level, not more than 10 people/sets, even last september。
Shanghai chainer
But now you see, the months are a single set of 10 people/set of attention, and the statistical cycle is marked by the number of people/soldiers. In other words, while the market is not hot, people are not only there but also more than last year。
Data on the number of persons of concern in the housing sector for the six months have also been high, reaching a peak in march, corresponding to high and low prices. At that point, a picture was coming into shape, with both buyers and sellers playing their game to the point where they watched and hunted, and when they lowered expectations and sold out。
I looked at what type of household everyone was looking at, and it was clear that there was a relatively higher level of concern for large households, with an average single-size population of 90-110 flats, the highest in all areas。
Maintenance of the number of persons concerned with the source of the house/suspension of the source suite
This is where market analysis is interesting, and if the middle part is missing, you can make your own assumptions through larger framework data, which will also help you see where the second-hand market could turn。
04
Some of the bottoms of the second-hand market are now clear。
Behind the volume is a market price that can be sold when there is a need to enter, when there is an exchange of prices, and when market prices are reshuffled。
It is good to see that there are still wait-and-see customers, meaning that the market is not a deficit in demand, but is bound by it. And then the next turning point in the market might be the sting-and-see thing。
At this point in time, if there are any suggestions for you, i think it might be a good choice to take a slow step, whether it be for the landlord or for the client, to make a demand decision。
If you still fail to see your needs, it may be that your needs are not urgent enough. It's time to wait, to buy, to sell and to wait. These days, when you see these middlemen on the streets, you can't help but look inside and see how busy they are。
Second-hand markets are coming to an end in june, and the second half of the year has its own answers。
