One month has passed since beijing, on 14 december last, to adjust its policy to optimize house purchases. What happened in beijing after the new deal? What changes have been made? A recent survey by beijing business journalist found that, at the data level, nearly four weeks after the adjustment of the optimized house purchase policy, 6051 new houses were sold in beijing, of which a maximum of 2,163 were sold in a single week, and all the weeks following the new deal were compared with the four weeks before the new deal, an increase of 50. 19 per cent. It should be noted, however, that the effects of the continued resurgence of transactions may also be compounded by the increased push and promotion efforts made by the end of the year as the last sprint for housing companies。
In the view of industry, beijing house has in recent years adopted the best possible policies to boost the city's warmth, but after january, the city will also enter the traditional low season, requiring further follow-up measures to sustain policy heat and continue to boost market confidence from the point of view of maintaining the sustainable effects of heat。
The market's getting warmer
On 14 december 2023, five departments, including the beijing municipal housing construction commission, jointly issued the circular on the adjustment of the municipal policy for the optimization of general housing standards and individual housing loans, which adjusted the individual housing loan down payment rate, the loan rate, the length of the loan and the criteria for the recognition of ordinary housing. This is also the most intensive municipal optimization policy in beijing in recent years。
On 14 january, the beijing restructuring of the optimized house purchase policy landed on a full moon and changes in the beijing building city received considerable attention. Beijing journalist journalists have learned from institutional sources that nearly four weeks after the adjustment of the optimized house purchase policy, a total of 6051 new houses were sold in beijing, of which a maximum of 2163 were sold in a single week, and the new deal week was closed in comparison with the four weeks before the new deal, an increase of 50. 19 per cent。
“the effect of the new deal is roughly the same as that of the previous round of `no mortgages', and the short-term boosting of the housing market is evident.” the marketing director of a project in beijing, li xin, told the beijing news reporter that the number of visitors to the salehouses had declined somewhat in the near future as demand had been released, which was in line with the team’s assessment of the market dynamics following the policy。
The beijing marketing director of a top 20 housing company, yehyan, told beijing newspaper reporters that the market's cooling down in recent days had also been affected by seasonal factors, and that, towards the end of the year, people were busy working hard, concluding at the end of the year, and that, together with the cold climate at the end of the year, the number of people who did not want to go out to see the house increased, the timeliness of the cut-off points remained around three weeks. “january is a less traditional sales season, and the market for new houses in beijing is expected to fall in january 2024 on a smaller scale than in december 2023, but the market as a whole will remain active as a result of the policy drive.”
Beijing business journalist also noted the pre- and post-bargaining of the new house from institutional data. In january 2024, the trade in new houses in beijing remained at around 100 units per day, and in the past week, 805 units had been sold in new houses in beijing, with marked contractions compared to the highest number of transactions in a single week。
According to zhang daewei, the chief analyst of china's real estate, beijing city has in recent years adopted the best possible policies to boost the city's warming, but when it enters the month of january, the city will also enter the traditional sub-season, requiring further follow-up initiatives, such as lower down payment policies, to sustain policy heat and continue to boost market confidence。
The end-of-year sprint effect
The new deal has further reduced entry pressure on home buyers at both the down payment and interest levels, bringing tangible benefits to a large number of home buyers. It should be noted, however, that the effects of the continued resurgence of transactions may also be compounded by the increased push and promotion efforts made by the end of the year as the last sprint for housing companies。
“since the end of the year, many developers have given considerable discounts to sprint their performance.” several marketing managers in beijing, including yehyan, spoke out, and the developer's luxuries facilitated the market for new houses in beijing at the end of the year。
A visit by journalists from the beijing business journal also revealed that a number of promotions such as housing discounts, special-price housing sources, old new benefits, and gold eggs have recently been introduced on the beijing house. In particular, the introduction of special-price housing sources, some of which were discounts of nearly $1 million, attracted both the attention of home buyers and the overall sales of the project。
Yehyan claims that the new housing project was for sale at the end of the year, either for return funds or to compete with surrounding projects, or for a small number of incoming customers. The new deal not only reduced the pressure on home buyers to enter, but also injected dynamism into the entire real estate market. In the context of good policy, the confidence of home buyers has gradually been restored and market transactions have increased. However, the waiter's mood remains strong, taking into account, inter alia, the price of the house, its location and the facilities attached to it, with a view to obtaining the most suitable housing within a limited budget. This has also contributed to increased competition in the real estate market, and developers need to continuously improve the quality and value of houses in order to attract more buyers。
In the same vein, li xin indicated that the current market was fast-paced, and that early start-up and fast-marketing projects would be profitable, and that once the pre-set sales time was exceeded, the bill would not come. About 90 per cent of the new housing project in beijing has gone through channels, and it is a unanimous judgement that the market for “receiving” is active, taking advantage of the golden period of the policy。
The new deal brings reconstruction and consolidation
Behind the “receiving” was a change in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, which was further into the buyer's market phase. Buyers under the buyer's market are cautious and more immune to policy. It is important to mention that in 2023, while the market mood fell into a low-intensity zone, under a series of demand-side policies, the house purchase threshold fell, monthly costs fell and the share of residential leverage increased. According to data from the zhuge data research centre, between january and november 2023, the population's leverage rate was 31. 1 per cent, up 0. 8 percentage points from 2022. The willingness of residents to buy mortgages has increased since 2022。
The senior analyst of the zhuge data research centre, guan yongxie, noted that since last september, when the first-line cities were completely “recognised” for mortgages, there has been no significant consolidation of untying policies. Markets have high expectations of untying the first-line urban policies. On 14 december 2023, beijing and shanghai's untying policies undoubtedly sent a strong signal to the market. The market performance and policy trends of front-line cities, which are central to the real estate market, have highlighted the dynamism of the whole building market, and the new deal has had a positive impact on the reshaping and consolidation of confidence in the whole real estate market。
Since the simultaneous adjustment of general housing standards and the optimization of differential housing credit policies in the two front-line cities of kyoto, there has been a positive reaction, but a sustained warming has yet to be consolidated. There is still room for policy regulation in 2024, and it is expected that the market will gradually improve, driven by a combination of increased confidence in home acquisition, improved market supply and demand, and sustained policy optimization。
According to zhang daewei, the real estate sector is currently faced with more than simple financial problems, with pressures to compete for land, sales, customers, loans and even homogenous products. According to current monitored data, interest rates have changed slightly in several cities. However, the current purchase of housing is a problem of income stability, which, combined with demographic problems, still affects the stability of the real estate market. “as a whole, future developments in the real estate market continue to be policy-oriented, and with the introduction of a variety of steady-rise market policies last december, the market is expected to re-emerge a certain range of markets in early 2024.”
