(a) on wednesday, 28 april 2021, chinese pig-net prices were monitored by the chinese pig price system as follows: the average price of raw pigs (various: three foreign dollars) was 23. 06 yuan/kg (11. 53 yuan/kg), which was 0. 01 yuan/kg lower than yesterday (0. 01 yuan/kg); the price of pigs fell by 12. 05 per cent, or 29. 52 per cent, over the same period
Although the price of pigs has fallen by 0. 01 kg today, the north-east region, which is the price point for raw pigs, has shown a slight upward trend and has begun to warm up. The seven main reasons for the increase in the price of pigs are now analysed with you for five holidays。
01
During the hot season, returnees promote pork consumption
According to industry analyses, there is currently a relatively high volume of pig, livestock and slaughter, and the next pork market price will depend on the fifty-one holiday and the high consumption season. Most would choose to travel or return home, which would facilitate the reference to the possibility of promoting pork consumption on the market and would provide some boost. There is a strong feeling among pig farmers that the price of pork is likely to “reverse” and that the market will show an upward trend. However, in the long term, the supply of pork will continue to increase and market prices will remain within a relatively stable range。
02
Epidemics subsided, travel increased, pig prices rebounded
At present, the country is doing very well in terms of epidemic control, and many workers and expatriate workers have plans to travel this year. The rest of the year, usually after the spring season and until around the fifth quarter, is also the lowest in the traditional consumption season, and with the general upturn in temperature in the north and south, the recovery of outdoor activities, tourism and catering will inevitably drive the demand for pork consumption, which would have rebounded without exceptional circumstances, although it is hoped that the pig farmers will be able to operate rationally during this period and not be blind。
03
Fat pigs are out of the bar. Weight is down
The winter diarrhea caused the loss of the pig's storage column in january-february, the corresponding second quarter of which fell short of expectations; and the pre- and post-spring swine fever, which led to the passive advance, the corresponding second quarter of which fell short of expectations. The combination of the two resulted in a break in may-june. Second, the weight of fat pigs may decrease after may as they grow out. Finally, farming costs have increased. The cost of raising african pigs after the plague has increased by at least 36 per cent, including feed, biosafety, environmental protection, etc., and the increase in the cost items is rigid and ultimately transmitted to the price of raw pigs, which in theory is necessarily higher than the cost of self-care of $19/kg。
04
The willingness to slaughter pigs will increase markedly with the holidays
In the short term, the slaughter company began collecting pigs, guided by the holiday effect. However, after a continuous decline in the previous period, there was a willingness to raise prices during the breeding phase, which led to the slaughtering companies continuing to raise prices. From may to june, the price of pigs is likely to rise further, and the profit margin for slaughter is expected to increase after short-term fertilizer. As the market climate increases, the price of raw pigs is expected to rise。
05
The pig breeder can now sell fewer pigs
During the period when the price of pigs fell successively in march-april, pig farmers had begun to sell large quantities of raw pigs, which would inevitably lead to a tight rate of pig production during five holidays. So it is expected that in mid-may there will be a wave of rises in pig prices and that pig farmers will take advantage of the opportunity。
06
There's still a gap in the domestic pig market in the second quarter
Although the capacity for pig production is now better recovered, according to the monitoring, the march sample count shows that there was an increase in the pool of piglets, but that of piglets was smaller. In march, there was a 1 per cent decrease in the central pig storage column, although the decrease was modest, but after the second quarter, consumption trends began to improve and market demand began to pick up。
However, there has been an increase in the number of larger pigs and a drop in pork in april, one of the main reasons being the concentration of the larger pigs. That is why we have said repeatedly before that the price of pigs fell, but the price of pork in the market did not drop significantly, and the market did not react until april when the big pigs came out。
However, at the present time, the big pig is nearing the end of the column, and given the relative shortage of the medium pig, there may be a gap in the next pattern of warming market demand, with short-term shortfalls in supply, which many believe will be the bottom line of the rebound in the price of pork in the second quarter。
07
The farmers are shrinking and the pigs are becoming more and more attractive
Since march, the price of raw pigs has continued to catch cold, and there have been jokes that this is a common industry for all pig farmers, waterloo. As a result, many pig farms have been reduced in size, which has made the current situation more intense and, along with the long-term arrival of the 5. 1, the increase is to be expected。
