When you go to the supermarket to buy food, your careful friends should find a change:
The same sacks of flour, a bottle of soy sauce, cheap croquets have become smaller, big brands have become more stable, and some of the food oil has been softly sold。
From july of this year onward, in the light of the data published by the national statistical office, the food and agriculture organization of the united nations (fao) on various types of cash and corporate finance, the whole industry is in the process of reshaping a solid pattern of household demand for food oil and soy sauce。
This round of adjustments would not result in a full-size boom, but would also mark the end of the era of price-brokering in low prices in previous years. At the consumer, production and retail end, there is a return to reason。
I've collated authoritative public data, dropped off web-based rumours of hoarding and burgeoning, broken down real trends in the second half of the year with big white words, and prepared some concrete suggestions for ordinary people to buy and sell on a daily basis。
I. Major food poverty: minimum price locks and drops in space, regular rice flat prices and rising prices for quality food
Many are most concerned about whether rice flour will increase prices significantly. The conclusion is:
This is the case with the national bottom acquisition policy, where ordinary permanent rice retail prices fluctuate only with a very limited degree of volatility, completely free of mass hoarding。
According to the official purchase price of food in 2026:
Minimum purchase price for wheat, third class, $1. 19 per pound
(b) 1. 28 yuan per pound for early rice
(b) 1. 29 yuan per pound of rice
Rice 1. 31/c。
As soon as the market price of the original grains fell to this red line, the national policy grain warehouse would be in storage, blocking the price of the grains from the source。
In may, the national food and agriculture agency will make it clear that this year's total wheat season purchases are estimated at 100 million tons, and that 110 million tons of warehouse space have been prepared ahead of schedule. The pace of summer grain stock entry began in june, and new wheat centralization is expected to be marketed in the short term with a small price repression of raw materials。
The national statistical office spot surveillance in early may revealed that:
(b) the national barley feed price of the third class of wheat was $2546. 8 per ton, a small 0. 5 per cent decrease in the ring ratio
The factory price for rice has stabilized at $4013 per ton, and the price has not fluctuated。
In the retail market, the usual bag containing 5kg flour was kept at 25-28 yuan in the second half of the year. Even during the fall and winter preparation period of the flour mill in august-october, retail prices increased by two or three cents per pound at the most, leaving little sense。
The real difference is in quality food:
High-end barley and bread-breaded wheat, some of the producing areas have been affected this spring by moderate temperatures and reduced harvests, with raw materials being purchased at around 15 per cent higher than normal wheat。
In the second half of the year, fine rice, such as high-strength flour and the fragrance of five permanent rice, will steadily increase prices; the bulk rice flour, which is the primary price-free mass, will remain essentially intact。
The feedback from the food shop owners in the surrounding communities was intuitive: the bulk of the north-east rice increased by only 0. 2 yuan per pound for six months, while the box of refined rice accumulated an increase of 10 per cent. This is the next most marked trend of fragmentation of the rice-noodle market。
Ii. Oedible oils: the cost of raw materials is rising slowly, with the accelerated exit of small-scale oil mills
Edible oil is the most susceptible category of price changes in the second half of the year。
The central reason is simple: 80 per cent of domestic soybean raw materials depend on imports of soybeans, and the international origin climate and the cost of maritime transport directly influence domestic oil prices。
At the beginning of june, the firm's cash data showed:
(a) domestic soybean feed price of $458 per ton, with an overall increase of 5. 82 per cent during the year
Palm oil was available at $9558/t, a significant increase of 10. 72 per cent over the same period。
Palm oil is an important ingredient for reconciling oil, and the price increases for raw materials are transmitted to final retail prices sooner or later。
The united states department of agriculture reported a modest 1 per cent increase in domestic vegetable oil production of 3,197 million tons in 2026/27. Bean oil continues to account for 60 per cent of production, with a limited increase in the production of domestic peanuts and vegetable seeds, which does not fully replace the oil import shortfall。
The first two years have seen a sharp increase in the pressure of survival in the second half of the year, relying on small oil mills with low-cost, low-quality raw materials and large barrel bulk dumping。
On the one hand, the cost of purchasing raw materials has continued to rise, while on the other hand, food sampling has become new, poor currency and oil checks have continued to stop。
The end market performance: the soybean soybean soy oil, which was 32 and 33 a barrel in the previous two years, is now up and down to 37. Many small supermarkets go down directly to small crowds, and the shelves are slowly filled with brands such as dragonfish and lufa。
But there is no need to panic. Large brands usually buy soybean raw materials six months in advance at a locked price, and the chinese company calculates that the first oil and grease enterprise raw materials cover 60% of the capacity in the second half of the year. The 5l barrel of soybean oil is projected to increase at $2-4, without a sudden surge。
Iii. Large shuffles in the spice industry: low-end impregnation, mainstream of healthy low-salt products
The spices are the most radical course of change in the industry。
From the first quarter of 2026, the financial statements of the companies listed could pre-judge the second half of the year: the past era of low-priced domestic rolls and frenzy market-busting was completely over, head brands were stable, low- and medium-quality plants were rapidly phased out, and products were concentrated in low salt and zero additions。
We've been working on the data of 19 listed boutique companies:
There was only a double increase in profits for six businesses throughout 2025
In the first quarter of 2026, it went directly to 14 businesses, and net profits went up simultaneously。
Of this, 9029 million were collected by sea, compared to +8. 57 per cent
Net profits from foods of aerobics surged 234. 7 per cent
The net gain on the medium torch increased by 45. 11 per cent。
This set of data suggests that the industry has moved away from vicious price wars and that enterprises do not have to lose their profits to sell。
In terms of cost:
The soybeans and white sugar are the only source of soybeans and sugar. The country-standarded white sugar spot is $5381. 3/t。
Instead, small workshops, with high prices for raw materials, coupled with the gradual fall of the new flavour labels, the defunct “zero additions” and randomly labeled formulation products are not allowed on board, and a large backlog of 3 or 4-line small flavour plants has been closed down。
The changes on the supermarket shelf are visible: low-priced small bottles of soy sauce have slowly disappeared from the past, and the share of low salt and sodium soy sauce continues to rise. Data show that the number of new low-salt spices rose by nearly 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2026。
Consumer-end trends are also forcing product upgrading. Household cooking is now more focused on the table of ingredients, with the continued decline in the market path for low-cost flavoured products containing a large amount of additives, and the initiative of branders to reduce low-end production capacity and tilt it towards high-māori health products, which is also a key factor in the steady and slight increase in the price of odorized items in the second half of the year。
Iv. Recommendations to ordinary residents and small businesses
Taking into account the above data and industry changes, two groups of people have made solid recommendations, not simply hoarding, but not advocating:
1. Ordinary residents
The daily rice oil is bought and purchased for a period of 1-2 months。
Precise food oil and high-end sauce oil can be used to boost a small stock of these products over the course of the month, with a high probability of increasing prices in the second half of the year; bulk groceries and super low-priced, anonymous sauce are bought as little as possible, raw materials are unstable and the product controls are insecure, and subsequent impurities tend to run out of markets and become problematic。
It would be more cost-effective to give priority to large packaging items, 5 kg of rice flour and more than 4 l barrels of oil。
2. Community supermarkets, food and vegetable stores business
Reduction in the proportion of imports of small crowds of flavours and bulk oils, with priority given to regular brand agents in the adjacent areas. A stable head brand supply price and a well-developed return-for-trade policy can circumvent the downside risk associated with the collapse of small plants。
The price of raw materials in the market period for new wheat is at a low level, with a modest supply of flour in july-august, avoiding the fall-winter price increase cycle; the focus on low-salt, regular household demand for singles, low-stocked, cold-door complexes, and the current concentration of consumption demand on public demand。
In the second half of 2026, the rice pasta industry will be in a new pattern of “stable prices, price increases for good and bad off”。
The whole industry ends with low-priced internal rolls, with an overall improvement in product quality, with small price adjustments concentrated mainly in the product category and minimal fluctuations in daily items that just need to be affordable。
Rational consumption is the cheapest way。
Price #meat oil # picturing #consumption trend #lifewatch #2026
It is based on public financial reporting by the national statistics office, the national food and agriculture board and listed companies, and aims at market trend analysis and human science. The spot prices and industry projections referred to in the paper are subject to possible fluctuations in market demand and supply, and retail prices are subject to local and official publication. This document does not provide a basis for any investment or hoarding, and the author is not liable for losses arising from individual decision-making。
After this wave analysis, i wonder if you've been going to the supermarket lately
How much for a barrel of 5-l oil? Would you take a look at a label with salt or zero additions? If you're the owner of a mini-mart or a restaurant, you'll choose to go up or change the brand
