At the moment, the most confusing anomaly of the year was found in sr2609, where the national average of spot prices and futures almost flatted the water gap, but the real-off cash in shandong chinin fell directly to $4925, and the futures price gap increased by $463. The day-to-day silos rose and the night-to-night pallet remained in motion, posing great risks under a seemingly flat-priced landscape, with a large number of dispersed households watching the day-to-day pallets catch up blindly, completely neglecting the industrial pits of the serious north-south segmentation of the stock, which is now the most easily traded。
All the spot data that was processed early on may 27th were first combed, and the offer came from the official statistics of the business association and was sold under the local sugar merchant line, without subjective estimates. On 25 may, the national benchmark offer for white sugar was $5386. 67/t. The pattern of the domestic spot market was marked by stable prices in the typical production and northern distribution areas. The main sector, guangxi, has a price of $5260-5340 per ton, the yunnan region has a price of $5020-5090, the stocks of the two main sectors have been concentrated in the sugar mill, the sugar mills have shown a strong willingness to price and the offer has remained resilient; the food processing and beverages sector has just experienced a significant reduction in the consumption season in the north, the brokers have pre-positioned their stocks to cash, and the cash in chinin weishan is only $4925, which is well below the national benchmark price of $460. The national average price on paper is indicative, but the price of the real market source in the north is significantly lower, which directly means that there is moisture in the pricing of the reference base price。
Turning back to the full-scale movement of sr 2609 yesterday, the contract was cut in september, with a daily drive opening of 5350 and a minimum of 5339, and the tailings were raised all the way up to $5389 to a single point of 31. 58 per cent, an increase of 0. 58 per cent, when the increasing number of silos reached 10107, which was a standard multi-headed active increase in warehouse control, raised prices throughout the day and eventually placed them high in the sun. Turning to nighttime hours, the situation changed and eventually closed at $5388, with a small increase of 20 points, an increase of 0. 37 per cent and a trade volume of 1144,000 hands, representing a small increase of 1661 to 684,000 hands compared with the apparent contraction of the day disk. It is evident from the financial behaviour that many of them enter the field in the daytime with the good price of the production area, and they continue to draw from 5339 to 5350 low places, holding them under the roof; and that no one will be willing to break the balance when the night is free of the news, so many of them do not continue to invest in the money, and so much space is left to wait and see。
The focus was on dismantling the current delicate structure of the spread, with futures prices of $538 and the national cash base of $5386. 67, with a difference of only $1. 33 and almost complete water level. According to normal commodity pricing logic, forward september contracts require calculation of storage costs, financial occupancy interest, and reasonable upgrade of spot-to-field the difference, which should be between $100 and $200, has now been eliminated directly enough to show how much market space is expected to be fully equal to long-term sugar prices. The futures are not overestimated or underestimated, but the futures are more than $463 in cash with a single bid of $4925, which, once the northern low-priced source is in the market, runs the risk of overvaluation。
It is also crucial that many traders stare at the increase in the k-line and ignore the potential profit from regional price differentials. The day-to-day build-up looks like a lot of strength, essentially based on short-term emotions that are priced by the guangxi yunnan sugar factory. The weak demand in the north is a solid industry. The night drive stagnates and, more importantly, the signal of multiple head-to-head attack on energy failure, without new industrial gains and benefits, it is difficult to keep pushing prices across critical points, and short-wire pursuits can easily be washed back and forth between impact zones。
In combination with the base differentials, demand and supply on hand, and the availability of funds, sr 2609 is today in a situation of balanced waiting, probably with a narrow shock, with a low probability of either a unilateral rise or a major fall, and a short-term bias towards a small rollback. Three sets of dramas were organized in conjunction with the roll-on funding tempo。
The most probabilities are flat or small high-opened post-shock retreats, with openings running around the 5388 line, hampered by a contraction of night discs, price stepbacks in between 5370 and 5380 to confirm multi-defensive support, maintaining fluctuations of between 5360 and 5390 all day, and eventually yielding a cross star or small entity cavity。
Small probabilities of multiple scripts require external leverage, such as a massive rise in international raw sugar, a price-fixing policy in domestic sugar factories, a steady start-up at 5,400 integer levels, multiple recovery of initiative, and upward pressure of 5420-5430。
There is also a sort of small probability of emptiness, with large-scale drops of spot prices in the marketing area on disks, many of them set aside and the price effectively fell by 5360, fast back to yesterday's low point 5339。
Detailed key trading points in the day, all of which were anchored in yesterday's junction and multi-air offensive positions. The first position, locked at the 5,400 integer level, failed to break last night's highest test of 5399, a position with large amounts of short-wire throws and a watershed in which multiple heads are judged to be true and false; the core support area, 5360-5370, which corresponds to the average daily value of 5368, which is the cost defence for the multiple silos of the current round; and the current epicentre of the current shock, which is concentrated at 5380-5390, which is also the centre of the multi-air view。
The best way to implement the hands-on recommendations, combined with multi-year current trading experience, is to wait and see. In an environment of near-alternative water, the ratio of profits and losses is poor, and it is not recommended to gamble unilaterally blindly in the middle of 5380-5395. The only way to trade is to make a break-through, with a price-free stop of 5,400 and a quick follow-up; instead, the effective fall of 5360, with multiple heads down, leaves the field, and small positions are tested. It is also important to remind warehouse traders that the spot of $4925 is an important signal of weak demand, and that friends holding multiple futures must be windy and watch for futures to fall and fall。
In summary, today sr 2609 operates between 5360-5400 and gives priority to observing and breaking through key interfaces。
Finally, from the perspective of industry research, two questions were put out for you to talk to your sugar friends: will the price of low-priced live goods continue to spread in the northern market area and will the price be reduced in the forced labour area? Is the current near-zero-base margin close to the sale area or is it better to follow the production area? Friends who are currents and futures are welcome to share their findings in the comment area。
