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In late may 2026, visible changes were taking place in the national second-hand house market. Policies continue to be loose, interest rates on mortgages remain low, local restrictions on purchases continue to be liberalized, trade volumes in key cities are steadily rising, the price of listings continues to shrink and the mindset of buyers and sellers is slowly changing。
A number of industry institutions and senior property practitioners have predicted that, for the next one to two months, in june and july, the country’s second-hand housing market will be completely stereotyped, with no overall boom or continued deep decline, and that the overall picture will be clear and clear, with the probability that there will be only three irreversible endings。
Whether you just need to buy a house to get to the car, improve the replacement house, hold a lot of houses to wait for your hand, or wait for the moment, it is all related to these three outcomes. This paper combines the latest real data from the national institute of statistics and research, without making a scene, without exaggerating, without creating a panic, with the basic logic of breaking down the buildings in plain language, and objectively analysing the subsequent developments in the second-hand houses, all of which correspond to the current situation in the market, so that the idea of buying and selling a house can be clarified。
I. Total market segmentation: good stockkeeping, no room differentials
In a month or two, the era of the second-hand chamber, which lasted for many years, was completely overridden, and the extreme polarization of the ice fires would be fully consolidated, the result of the city's most definite and first landing。
According to data from the national institute of statistics, 70 urban house prices in march 2026, the national second-hand house ratio rose to 13 cities, a significant increase of 11 compared to february; the average second-hand house price ratio declined for three months, from 0. 74 per cent in january to 0. 34 per cent in march. At the same time, the institute monitored an increase of 13. 4 per cent in the co-conformity of the 20-city second-hand rooms in april and a further increase of 19. 5 per cent in the 24 days prior to may, with clear signs of market warming。
However, the warming was concentrated on high-quality properties, and the poor second-hand room remained unattended。
The pace of transactions continues to accelerate with respect to core urban spaces, metro routes, school districts, new housing units within 10 years of age, high-quality properties, well-organized and mobile housing sources. The first-line, high-quality second-hand homes have been demined for less than 12 months, and the second-line cities have less than 18 months, with very small price reductions and limited bargaining space for buyers, which, if reasonably priced, will soon be ready for sale, will be hard currency for the market and will be extremely resilient to falling values。
In beijing and shanghai, the exchange of second-hand rooms in march reached a new high of nearly two years, with 70 per cent of the total stock of places having to be sold in less than 3 million new rooms, and the stronger the attributes of the school district and the subway, the stronger it is。
It's only getting harder to look at another kind of house. In remote peri-urban areas, with no support, no elevators for more than 20 years, holiday homes for the wen travelers, family-type differentials, poor property, no-school zones, and very poor circulation of second-hand houses, the number of cards is high and few buyers。
It is still difficult to find the handler, even if the prices of such houses are reduced by hundreds of thousands of dollars. Many landlords continue to experience successive price reductions, remain unobserved and slowly become real real estate and cannot cash out of their homes。
In the same city and in the same region, the gap in the price of housing and the gap in the conclusion of transactions widens. The location, age, support, property are directly determined whether a house can be sold and how much it can be sold. All houses will not rise or fall together in the future, good houses will remain steady, the gap will continue to depreciate and the pattern of fragmentation will no longer reverse。
The right choice is to buy a house without being blind, and to choose only a source of high-quality core housing; to sell a house is to know the reality, and to keep a low-quality property at a high price and to cut it down in time。
Ii. The total price of the house has been built across the board in exchange for normality
The second final outcome: in the next month or two, the country's second-hand houses as a whole will enter the bottom-drive phase, with a full-scale surge and a full-blown fall that will become market normal at price。
After four consecutive years of market depth adjustments, the price of the house has been completely depleted. In 2026, the central political bureau meeting clearly set the tone for the city, and there was an ongoing policy of good interest: down to a minimum of 15 per cent, down to 2. 95 per cent-3. 2 per cent of the interest rate on first-class mortgages, up to the end of 2027, a reduction in the value-added tax (vat) rate, and the complete elimination of the purchase and sale restrictions in many cities。
The policy is all-encompassing, blocking the risk of continued decline in housing prices, gradually eliminating the risk of corporate debt, significantly reducing the probability of a new home being broken down, and eliminating a vicious cycle of market collapse as the buyer's panic disappears。
But at the same time, the market will never return to the booming times of the past. The state is committed to keeping the house open, and all good-interest policies are geared towards the need to live on its own and to improve the replacement of houses, severely restricting speculation in the firehouse, and without heavy flooding and stimulating the city。
The income of the current population is growing steadily, the demographic structure is changing, housing is saturated, multiple housing units are constantly being sold out by households, the market is adequate and there is no basis for soaring housing prices. The first-line high-quality urban housing supply increases only after inflation, at about 1 to 2 per cent per year, and the third-line urban housing prices are almost flat, with a small decline in some vulnerable areas and no surge。
The market as a whole will maintain a price-for-money model for the long term: landlords will take the initiative to lower their prices so that the buyer can make the deal faster; buyers will negotiate the price rationally, do not catch up, do not panic, and do so as needed. The buyers and sellers are playing softly, and the turnover has risen steadily, prices have fluctuated steadily and there has been no boom or drop。
In the next month or two, there will be no opportunities to copy the wealth, and there will be no need to fear a fall in housing prices. The right price would have to wait until the delay had been achieved; there was no room to invest in the house, and the era of short-term income from house purchases was over。
Iii. A complete rewriting of the logic of buying a house: the withdrawal of the investment attributes and the full return of the house to the very nature of the dwelling
The third long-term and irreversible conclusion is that the second-hand house is completely divorced from the financial investment properties, that the logic of public purchase is fully re-engineered, and that the house is used only for living and no longer for added value。
Over the past decade or so, the purchase of a house has been an investment, the use of closed eyes to buy a house has been appreciated, many houses have been household assets, and the demolition of a house has been a shortcut to the rapid increase in the wealth of ordinary people. However, in the coming month or two, the old-age logic of house purchase has completely failed and the city of the new residential building has officially arrived。
It is clear from the transactional structure that 90 per cent of second-hand home buyers are now married, settled in schools, improved housing and are largely out of the market by investing in housework. The policy does not support the setting-up of houses, the increase in the cost of holding multiple housing units, the continued lower rate of return on rent than the interest rate on housing, and the fact that the holding of multiple units is not only not profitable, but also covers property costs, mortgages, depreciation, vacant costs and long-term margin losses。
The future family housekeeping logic, from the better to the better. The average person does not amass a large number of properties blindly, optimizes assets, sells remote, old, poor, difficult-to-circulation houses and replaces a good, high-quality, comfortable and comfortable set of properties。
The purchase of housing is no longer limited to future increases in prices, and more attention is paid to the comfort of living, school areas, distance from work, property services and amenities. The house is returned to its source of residence, the value of which is determined entirely by the nature of the residence and is no longer tied to financial speculation。
At the same time, second-hand house transactions are increasingly regulated in a transparent manner, with listings, offers, taxes and fees, all processes being open and transparent, information gaps disappear, and opportunities for low-price leakage and high-value sales no longer exist. Ordinary people need only make rational decisions about their own housing needs and ability to repay them, without having to play with the wind, without having to panic。
Iv. Recommendations for practical action to the needs, landlords and viewers in the context of the three outcomes
Seeing the three endings of the second-hand room in the future, regardless of the type of people you belong to, you can avoid the building and make sound decisions。
(b) home ownership: there is no need to wait for the lowest point for long periods of time, the market is well established in june-july, interest rates are low, taxes and fees are favourable, bargaining space is sufficient, and quality housing is highly selective. If the budget is appropriate, the area is suitable and the housing needs are met, the vehicle may be entered normally. Instead of dealing with short-term increases and declines, housing is held for long periods of time, without concern for short-term price fluctuations, priority is given to the core of new, fully equipped housing, and away from poor housing in the remote suburbs。
Second-hand landlords: quality cores do not need to be subject to substantial price reductions, normal listings are ready to wait, and the transaction cycle is not too long; old, remote, and unsupported, do not keep up with high prices, and future liquidity will only get worse, with a reasonable reduction in prices coming up quickly and avoiding long-term devaluations. Do not pile up for sale, put up rational cards and match market prices。
Families with multiple apartments: optimize the housing structure as soon as possible, streamline the number of housing units, retain a set of high-quality, self-occupied housing units, and realize surplus, low-quality properties in a timely manner. Don't have the illusion that the price of the house will rise back up, and that, in the case of the split, the difference will only become less and less valuable, and it will be easier to change。
The viewing population: there is no need for excessive anxiety, the city is stable, there is no risk of a surge or of a collapse. The purchase plan is organized according to their own needs, with housing needs at their disposal, renting without need, and not being driven blind by market sentiment。
V. At the end
In the coming month or two, the domestic second-hand house market will not undergo dramatic changes, but will be able to reshape the bottom pattern. It is highly polarized, spreads over the ground, returns to residence, and the three layers of the end are progressive, completely changing the mindset of ordinary people to buy and sell houses。
The city has set off the brutal surge and has entered a stable and healthy housing age. Houses are no longer an instrument of speculation, but a necessity for a secure life. A rational view of the price of the house, the purchase of the house on demand, reasonable maintenance of the house, no following, no gambling, no anxiety is the best way for ordinary people to deal with the market。
The rise and fall of the market are normal, keeping in mind their own needs and understanding market patterns, regardless of their behaviour, without being passive。
Topical discussion
Is your city's used room up or down? Are you going to buy a house or sell a house? Welcome to the comment section to share your real views。
