In the midst of chaos, the world enters2026I don't know。
(a) the spillover of geo-conflicts and never-ending efforts to promote peace; the spiral of unilateral hegemony and growing calls for genuine multilateralism and international justiceWorld economyThere is uncertainty about developmentArtificial intelligenceNew technologies are expected to create new growth points..
In the new year, the course of the world's seven major preoccupations, the ways in which the parties respond, or the profound influence of the international political and economic landscape, will be felt。
Suspended one: geometry of the chain effect of the us raid on venezuela
A few months after the military siege of the caribbean sea, united states forces raided venezuela on 3 january, forced the president of the control commission, mr. And mrs. Maduro, and took them to the united states, claiming that the united states would “manage” venezuela, in flagrant violation of the sovereignty of other states and in grave violation of international law, with many ripple effects。
On 3 january 2026, smoke rose at the airport of carlota in the venezuelan capital, caracas。
The situation in venezuela is highly uncertain: will the united states again launch a military strike against the commission? Will the committee “cooperate” with what the united states calls “management”? Will the current regime of maduro continue to fight aggressive interference? Will the opposition be in power with the support of the united states
The raid on venezuela was a central expression of the so-called “tonroism” of the united states in latin america, also known as the “leading western hemisphere” initiative of the trump government. The new version of the united states national security strategy sets out “hemispheric priorities”, and the trump government has continued to divide latin american countries with the dual-handed strategy of “carrots and sticks” and to create “cold effects” with military strikes。
The brutal hegemony of the united states is bound to inspire greater solidarity and sovereignty among latin american nations, but at the same time will stimulate the right-wing and pro-american forces in latin america. In 2025, several latin american left-wing parties lost in the elections. In 2026, elections will be held in brazil, colombia and peru. Further right-wing shifts in latin america's political spectrum will have an important impact on the geopolitical landscape。
Suspended ii: a durable ceasefire in the gaza strip
The first phase of the ceasefire in gaza came into effect on 10 october 2025, and a new round of the israeli-palestinian conflict lasting more than two years was suspended, but real peace is far from coming。
This was a palestinian child filmed in a temporary shelter in western gaza city on 22 december 2025。
At present, there are still sporadic clashes between israel and the palestinian hamas. The second phase of the ceasefire agreement will address the long-standing structural contradictions between the two sides, including key issues such as the disarmament of hamas, the withdrawal of israeli forces from gaza and the reconstruction of gaza, and the negotiating game will become more complex。
In 2026, there were two major political variables in israel: the progress of the trial of prime minister netanyahu's corruption, and the israeli parliamentary elections in october, which decided on the next prime minister. Will netanyahu's government cater to the right wing of the country? It is interesting to note how the political landscape in israel has changed。
At the same time, it is disturbing that the united states, which seeks to lead the establishment of the so-called peace council and the international stabilization force, which involve post-war governance in gaza, are vague on many key issues and have not clearly reaffirmed its strong commitment to the two-state solution。
The situation in palestine and israel, which involves clashes and contradictions between israel, lebanon and israel and the yemeni al-houthi forces, will have a profound impact on the situation in the middle east and the global geopolitical situation。
Suspended iii: will the crisis in ukraine be at a turning point
In 2025, the crisis in ukraine, which has lasted for nearly four years, was characterized by a “bong circle” of talk and talk。
On the battlefield, in 2025, the russian side took back the kursk region from the ukrainian army and announced that it had taken control of more than 300 ukrainian towns, including the town of the red army in the heavy town of donetsk region (known by ukraine as pokrovsk). Russia and ukraine have attacked each other's vital facilities, such as energy, and the drone war between the two sides has led to a spillover of tension。
At the negotiating table, the russian-u. S. And european sides were raging around the united states proposal for a “peace formula”. After many rounds of meetings and negotiations, the two core issues that have plagued the peace talks — territory and security — remain unresolved. After a meeting with president zelensky on 28 december 2025, trump said that, “if everything goes well, russia may be able to reach a peace agreement in only a few weeks”, “but the results may not be satisfactory”。
On 18 august 2025, the president of the united states, trump, president zelensky of ukraine and several european leaders met in the white house of the united states。
In 2026, the situation in the russian-uu region will be affected by a combination of battlefield situations and diplomatic games, with the involvement of a wide range of forces in the united states and europe. Fundamentally, the achievement of a ceasefire between russia and ukraine depends on respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, respect for the purposes and principles of the charter of the united nations, respect for the legitimate security concerns of all states and support for all efforts to promote a peaceful resolution of the crisis。
Suspended iv: what are the risks associated with the midterm elections in the united states
From fiscal spending to immigration control, from customs policy to health insurance benefits, from los angeles chaos to washington, d. C., from the abolition of federal institutions to the redrawing of congressional constituencies ..
On 8 june 2025, protesters clashed with members of the national guard in front of federal law enforcement agencies in downtown los angeles, california, united states。
In 2025, when trump returned to the white house, the republicans and democrats clashed more intensely. Between the fighting, both parties targeted the november 2026 mid-term elections to the united states congress。
Today, democrats appear to be re-emerging in many local elections in new york. At the same time, a series of recent data and polls indicate that the trump government is under pressure in the area of economic livelihood. If the republican party loses its majority status in any chamber of the senate, it will affect the follow-up of trump。
The mid-term elections will certainly further exacerbate american party rivalries, chaos and tearing apart. The government’s internal and external policies for the republicans’ victory, including the ukrainian crisis, the palestinian-israeli issue, transatlantic relations, the “western hemisphere” policy and the asia-pacific region, will also have an unknown impact on the world。
Suspended five: how political right-wing in japan develops
Japan's prime minister, mt. Koyaki, who came to power in october 2025, sought to accelerate the right-wing agenda and launched a series of arms-strength policies, making blatantly false statements. The dangerous move towards the revival of militarism and the challenge of justice in gao city was widely questioned and criticized by the wise men of japan, prompting international vigilance。
On 21 november 2025, outside the residence of the prime minister in tokyo, japan, the people took part in the protest with a sign and demanded that prime minister takahumi withdraw his false statements。
In 2026, there was uncertainty about the future of governance in high cities. The ruling coalition with the japan vising society failed to take a majority in the senate, and the advancement of important bills was held hostage to opposition parties. On the issue of economic livelihood, which is of great concern to the japanese population, the “responsible and active fiscal” policy of high-city governments has been questioned by a number of japanese media and western scholars about its effectiveness。
In the difficult circumstances of governance, whether the city will be firmly rooted in governance, seeking conservative support through extremist acts such as worshiping the yasukuni shrine, and accelerating the political right-wing in japan deserve close attention. There is a need for the international community to send a clear signal to work together against the dangerous designs of the right-wing forces of japan. It is about maintaining peace and stability in the region and about preserving the post-war international order。
Suspended vi: whether artificial intelligence development and governance go hand in hand
The rapidly evolving ai technology has begun to empower people. How will ai technology change the world and affect our lives in 2026
On 25 september 2025, the united nations held a high-level meeting to launch the global dialogue on artificial smart governance。
The scientific community is of the view that the trend of ai driving scientific research across borders will continue to deepen in 2026, with the prospect of wider application and diffusion of the complex, multi-step ai smart body and further penetration of the ai model into all aspects of socio-economic life。
Artificial intelligence technologies and applications are rapidly iterative, giving new impetus to economic development: combining with traditional industries, unleashing new productivity; and creating new products, business practices and new economic growth points。
At the same time, the rapid development of ai technology has brought with it a range of issues such as deep forgery, data misuse and the risk of investment bubbles, and the north-south “smart divide”, which pose new global governance challenges. The british magazine nature said that “2026 should be the year the world unites for ai security”。
Whether the world economy can cross the fog
The world economic outlook report, published by the international monetary fund (imf) in october 2025, projected a global economic growth rate of 3. 1 per cent in 2026, lower than the projected 3. 2 per cent in 2025 and 3. 3 per cent in 2024。
According to the imf, the indiscriminate application of tariff shocks by the united states is further undermining global economic growth prospects, and uncertainties in trade policy, rising protectionism, persistent geopolitical tensions and increased fiscal vulnerability in some countries pose downside risks to the world economy。
On 12 december 2025, a trader worked in the trading hall of the united states stock exchange in new york. The three main shares of the new york stock market were in decline that day。
In 2026, how will the united states supreme court rule on the legality of the trump government tariff policy? How can soft monetary or fiscal policies hit global markets when the debt problems of the governments of the united states and japan are severe? Despite multiple uncertainties, the world economy has shown resilience: south-south trade and investment flows have become more dynamic and asia is emerging as a new engine of growth
As the world's second largest economy, china has continued to offer new opportunities and new dynamics to the world through high-quality development and mutually beneficial win-win cooperation. The year 2026 marks the beginning of the fifteenth century, and china will continue to contribute its positive energy to the improvement of global economic governance and will continue to contribute valuable certainty and stability to the world economy。
