July 13th, 2026. Focused financial and economic information
1. The central bank's second quarter will set the pace for a modest easing of goods
2. Expansion of capital market instruments land
The total value of re-financing and equity swaps increased from $80 billion to $1. 5 trillion for a three-year extension. Encouraging repurchases by listed companies and increasing industrial capital will help to reduce market volatility in extreme situations。
Ipo request opened on july 13th
The storage of chip taps on board creates a short-term financial diversion pressure; the medium- and long-term reflect autonomous, controlled and sustainable domestic semiconductor propulsion. The storage blocks are at the top of the cycle, and industry price increases are constantly validated。
4. Data review: economic data segmentation in june
The cpi ratio was 1. 0 per cent (weaker than expected) and the ppi ratio remained high at 4. 1 per cent; it highlighted the slow recovery of downstream consumption demand and the preference for upstream raw material prices. Value dividends, upstream resources benefit from ppi resilience; alternative consumption is under constant pressure。
Ii. A. Structure, industrial trains
1. Continuous additions to the calculus & integrated circuit policy
The country's regular meetings have clearly fostered the ai computing, integrated circuit support industry, with up to 30 per cent subsidies for the procurement of equipment from local think centres, and the creation of a multibillion-scale computing fund. The split of the tracks is a reminder that domestic demand-country computing equipment is resistant to external fluctuations; pure export-oriented light modules, consumer electronics technology units are more vulnerable to the expected impact of the united states recession (responding to the logic of previous crises)。
2. Continued fermentation of storage chain price increases
Samsung, long-song, continues to increase the dram/nand quote, ai servers need to pull storage stocks to decompose, industry enters the recovery cycle, and six months of reporting performance is expected to improve。
3. The expected continuation of the real estate policy
There is a continued optimization of the stock-to-stock, down payment ratio policy; the market awaits an incremental and stable property policy at the national level, with the current block being dominated by a game policy。
Iii. Overseas finance (highest priority, matching your focus on the risks of the united states financial crisis)
1. Fomc minutes release falcon signals
2. The federal reserve issues semi-annual monetary policy reports
The inflation risk judgement was revised upwards to recognize that in the past year, pce inflation had rebounded significantly; market transactions “maintain higher interest rates for longer”。
3. U. S. Consumption shows weakness the elephant
In may, consumer credit fell for the first time since 2024, and credit card revolving credit contracted markedly; residents began to reduce their borrowing consumption, which was an early warning indicator of economic demand。
4. Geo-risk warming: the situation in the middle east disturbs expectations for crude oil supply
The friction continued in the americas, with a decline in shipping traffic in the strait of hormuz; oil prices were supported by risk premiums that raised the risk of global inflation at the tail end。
Japan’s heavy news: guided gpif pensions with indigenous assets
The largest pension fund in the world plans to reduce the overseas asset ratio, which is expected to boost the yen, reduce the holdings of overseas united states debt, and disrupt global dollar liquidity in the medium to long term。
Iv. Business commodities, exchange rates, u. S. Debt
1. United states debt
10 annual united states debt return of 4. 56 per cent; hawks expect to suppress growth valuations, placing indirect pressure on a stock north to finance。
Exchange rates
The median value of the renminbi against the united states dollar is 6. 7989; the dollar index stands at 101 above. In the fermentation phase of the peripheral risk, the united states dollar tends to be more gradual and to the north is prone to outflows。
Crude oil
Wti crude oil us$ 71. 41 / barrel; geo-situation increases volatility. The continued rise in oil prices will raise global inflation again and constrain the federal reserve's space for easing。
4. Gold
The price of gold fell by $4,100 / ounce. The current main market trade line: geo-conflict energy price hikes and inflation rebounds, the federal reserve maintains high interest rates, real interest rates go up to suppress gold, and traditional risk avoidance logic lapses。
V. This week's heavy data forecast (to determine short-term market fluctuations)
1. Wednesday (15 july): us june cpi inflation data
The market expected cpi to match 2. 9 per cent; if the data were higher than expected, the hawk would expect further reinforcement and global risk asset pressure; and if there was a significant fall, the growing unit would welcome a short-term repair window。
Domestic: two quarters of GDP, june imports and exports will be published this week to observe internal demand and export resilience。
3. United states share: large banks concentrate on the disclosure of second-quarter financial statements, observing united states credits, non-performing loans and tracking banking system risks。
