I'm jiangshan, who brings you up to date every day, with more content, and every piece of it is dry; if you think this information is useful for your life, you can look at it, collect it or forward it
In 2026, the last chance to make a fortune: conbo cycle tells you why this is different
It is difficult for ordinary people to cross wealth classes for the rest of their lives, working hard to save their savings, and the core reason is never to be hard enough to understand the cycle of times. The most classic phrase in the theory of cyclicality: little rich by hard work, big rich by combo. The combo cycle is the condradiyev long cycle, with the world completing a full economic cycle every 50 to 60 years, with 60 or 70 years of human life, and a full round of constipation being at its limit, with only one bottom-trip window in the bottom of a depression, and a new cycle recovering the dividend。
And in 2026, at the critical point of the fifth round of information technology, the end of the conbour and the start of the sixth round of ai+ new energy cycle, the bottom of this cycle and the end of the old cycle are the last large-scale window of wealth to be reshaped in our generation of ordinary people. Many people remain immersed in the old dividends of past property, the internet, anxiety about income decline, shrinking assets, and failing to see the new wealth logic of cyclical transitions. Compared to the historical five-wheel convex bottom pattern, it is clear that the 2026 opportunities and past cycles are very different and understand the rhythm of the cycle in order to hold on to assets and capture the next decade of the next。
I. Common understanding of the conbo cycle: a round of 60 years and four seasons, when wealth rises and falls are destined for cycles
The convection cycle is by its very nature a highly volatile global economy driven by an integrator basic technology, with every epochal new technology going from being born, to being spread, to being depleted, to paying off its debt, to waiting for the next technological revolution, to complete the four phases of recovery, prosperity, recession and depression, as is the four-quarter cycle of the year. We break down each of the four stages in plain language, making it difficult for ordinary people to make money:
1. Recovery period (spring, 10-15): the emergence of new technologies, wealth mapping windows period
At the end of the previous recession, old debt bubbles were completely cleared, central banks maintained monetary easing, and new generic technologies moved from small-scale laboratory applications to commercialization. The whole socio-economic recovery has been slow, business has slowly improved, new technology tracks in the stock market have led the way out of the bottom, and large commodities have gradually recovered。
This is not the age of all-powerful money-making, but it is the gold phase of early low-level accumulation of high-quality assets, which will be multiplied by the next boom。
2. Prosperity period (summer, 15-20): during the golden age of all people making money, class is the easiest to cross
New technologies have spread across a wide variety of sectors, with significant increases in productivity throughout society, rapid economic growth, moderate inflation, continued credit expansion, simultaneous run-off of buildings, stock markets and large commodities, and income from start-up, house-buying and equity investments, and the lightest 20 years of accumulation of wealth by ordinary people。
In the past 2000-2019, we have experienced first-hand the second half of the fifth round of conpo boom, where the value-added of buying houses, internet entrepreneurship, and the profit of the mayor's line depend entirely on the dividends of prosperity。
3. Recession period (autumn, 10-15): technology dividend depleted, stagnating and making money increasingly difficult
The growth space for the dominant industries has peaked, the overall excess of capacity, the continued decline in real-estate investment returns, the move away from the willingness of capital to invest in real-estate research and development and towards financial and real-estate speculation-induced asset bubbles, and the slowdown in economic growth, with high prices, i. E. A stagnating environment。
The market value of the buildings and the growth stock is gradually declining, with only gold, high-equity defensive assets, cash holding properties, losses in entrepreneurship for ordinary people, stagnation in wage growth, and a gradual tightening of the day. Following the 2008 financial crisis, we entered a recessionary cycle。
4- depression (winter, 5-10 years): debt deflation, wealth shuffles, bottom opportunities
At the end of the depression, however, all high-quality assets were destroyed to historical low valuations, old wealth was transferred, and new cycle seeds were conceived, which was the only perfect node for every round of conbory commons to turn their backs。
Throughout the human industrial revolution, the world has completed five rounds of convulsion, each of which, at the end of a depression, will produce a new group of wealth that seizes the bottom of opportunity, while in 2026, it is at the crossroads of the fifth round of depression, the sixth round of new cycles。
Ii. Full course of five-wheeled contour: each bottom point, the same wealth pattern is repeated
Over 200 years, five-wheeled combo rises and falls, the scripts are very similar, and those who set up the new cycle track at the end of the depression, without exception, have received the next decades of dividends, one by one, so that they can understand the current situation:
First round of combo: 1782-1845, steam machine textile age
Core technologies: steam machines, mechanized textiles; at the bottom of the depression, from 1825 to 1840, british deflation lasted for two decades, with the decline of the traditional craft industry, leading the way to the first wave of wealth in the industrial age, with the deployment of railways and mechanical assets。
Second round of combo: 1845-1892, the iron and steel age of railways
Railways, steel, and europe and the united states of america, with the stock market crash in 1873 entering the great depression and prices going down year after year; investors who buy railway shares and mine assets at a low price at the bottom, waiting for recovery to begin and assets to add up dozens of times, laying the foundation for the initial accumulation of european and american capital。
Third round of conbos: 1892-1948, inner combustion age
The world’s great depression in 1929, the lowest point in the current cycle, the collapse of the united states stock and the collapse of large factories; those with low-priced distribution of electricity, chemical lead firms, who had been living in huge amounts of wealth since world war ii, were born in the bottom window。
Round iv conpo: 1948-1982, car oil consumption age
Following the post-war reconstruction that triggered the spread of automobiles and household electricity, the oil crisis in the 1970s triggered a global stagnating depression; the early 1980s’ busting point, the capital of semiconductor and consumer electronics, perfected the subsequent wave of information technology, with japan and asia’s four small dragons relying on industrial succession。
Round v conbo: the internet information technology age 1982-2026
The pc internet, mobile internet, smartphones are destabilizing global lifestyles, with the subprime crisis in 2008 entering a recession cycle, and the epidemic officially opening a depression phase in 2020. By 2026, the depression cycle had been in place for six years, with only one to three years remaining until the end of the depression, and this is the final stage of the current depression and the end of the bottom-trip window。
The same pattern is fully supported by the first four cycles: the last 1-2 years of depression, the highest-value-for-assets time in the new cycle, with asset valuations lasting for more than a decade once the upturn period begins. In 2026, however, it was called the last opportunity to make a fortune because the sixth round of conbo and any previous cycle of bottom logic were completely different。
Core focus: the 2026 cycle is different from all the conbos in history
Many people have read the cyclical theory and think that it's just a depression, a boom, and it's always the same, but now that the old and new combos have four unique features, the pattern of opportunity is completely rewritten and the key points that ordinary people have to recognize:
1. For the first time, the core drivers of the new cycle have moved from single-country ownership to a multipolar equilibrium bureau
The first five years of the technological revolution and the economic order were entirely controlled by the single powers of europe and the united states: the first two rounds were dominated by the united kingdom, the next three by the united states, the rules of wealth distribution were set exclusively by the dominant countries, the emerging countries were passively engaged in low-end industries and the general human opportunity space was limited。
With the sixth round of new cycles centred on artificial intelligence, new energy sources and biotechnologies, our country is deeply involved in industry-wide chain research and development: computer infrastructure, national semiconductor substitution, energy storage technologies, new energy vehicle chains, biomedicine development and development are all on the first global ladder and no longer mere technology followers. The new cycle of wealth dividends is no longer concentrated in europe and the united states, and up and down the country’s industrial chain will produce vast amounts of high-quality indigenous assets, and ordinary people will be able to fully share the scientific and technological dividends in the a stock market without having to travel abroad, a situation that has not occurred in all previous cycles。
2. A doubling of technology over time and a significant reduction in wealth delivery cycles
It will take more than 15 years for the new technologies of the previous cycle to be fully available and the pace of value added to the wealth to be smoothed; the current ai megamodels, energy reserves, and computing infrastructure are falling far faster than any of the previous technologies, and artificial intelligence is rapidly permeating all sectors of office, manufacturing, transport and health care, with penetration rates rising dramatically each year。
This means that our assets, which need not wait for more than a decade to realize the gains, can be clearly valued and repaired in three to five years, with more efficient liquidity, more room for error, and especially friendly to ordinary investors with limited savings。
3. The end of the old property cycle dividend and the full shift of wealth carriers towards equity and hard technology assets
Over 70 per cent of the wealth of the country's inhabitants has been dependent on real estate for the past three decades, thanks to the fifth round of boom-plus domestic urbanization, which is the most secure way to add value; however, with the end of the fifth cycle, traditional property is the asset of the end of the old cycle, and the future will no longer be generalized, with only structural fragmentation。
During the sixth round of the conpo boom, the core carrier of wealth was replaced by hard-tech equity, high-end manufacturing, bulk commodities, and four types of asset to avoid the risk of precious metals. Only a small number of high-quality properties in the central city remained in the market with preservation properties. The era of building-buying and laying-in ended permanently, wealth tracks changed completely and old thinking only continued to shrink。
4- macro-regulation systems are better, no extreme crashes, and the bottom concussion is normal
In every round of history, at the end of the conbasium, there has been an extreme collapse of banks, a collapse of stock markets, and a lack of bottom-line sales of assets, with very high returns but high risks; today, macro-regulation, liquidity-dipsing, increasingly sophisticated capital markets, flexible monetary policy regulation by central banks, long-term capital flows at any point in the world, and no one-size-fits-all bear market。
It is also a unique advantage of the current cycle to focus on the basis of repeated shocks and to give ordinary people sufficient time for batching, free from extreme panic pressure。
Iv. Plan for general human landable wealth by 2026: four categoriesAsset allocationHold the principal and grab the new cycle dividend
In the context of the boom-and-bust pattern at the end of the conbasium and in the early stages of the upswing, abandoning the past thinking of house-opening, short-term speculation, allocating household assets at 4:2:1 ratio to fit the current situation and grasping the final opportunity:
Part i: 40 per cent of funds divided into sixth round of conpo core rights assets (additional value added)
Priority will be given to the three main industries of the new cycle, with only leading industries with orders and sustained performance, eliminating the issue of small votes, using a set-off buy-in model, gradually building up in six months, and avoiding one-time heavy silos at the bottom of the shock:
1, ai computing, semiconductor storage, semiconductor equipment: the bottom infrastructure of the new cycle, ai just requires hardware for universal access, a wide range of alternative space for national production, when the lower plate is retroverted in depth and the valuation is historically low
2. New energy reserves, ultra-high voltage grids: the construction core of the new electricity system, with a 15-50 plan of trillion-kilograms, with growth and soundness attributes
3. Military-industrial space, biomedicine: the shock market avoids risk + grows in two-way properties, needs to be stabilized in a complex geo-situ environment and has a strong resilience to evacuation。
Part ii: 30 per cent of robust cash-type assets (maintaining the liquidity threshold)
The most taboo funds in a depressed cycle are locked to death, and 30% are set aside for low-vulnerability management, such as imf, national debt, large bills, and so forth, which has two effects: first, to respond to emergency spending on daily life, and second, to be able to absorb the costs of a short-term, large-scale rebalancing market, with sufficient cash being the bottom line in the shock。
Part iii: 20 per cent gold, industrial colour bulk commodities (to counter global macro volatility)
At the end of the depression, the combination of geo-conflict, exchange rate fluctuations and monetary easing combined to protect gold from extreme risk; industrial metals such as copper and lithium, accompanied by a recovery in the demand for new life cycle infrastructure and new energy expansion, will be followed by a steady upward trend, with these assets being used to counteract the risk of stock market shocks and smoothing the overall yield fluctuations of accounts。
Part iv: 10 per cent of high-quality real estate (only protected, with no expectation of value added)
The first- and second-line urban core has a small proportion of high-quality housing units, and the third- and fourth-line non-required properties are proposed to be gradually optimized; now the property is no longer a value-added asset, but is simply used to counter inflation and meet housing needs, and no longer has to be held back for urban growth。
Four laws of survival in a depression cycle
1. To stay completely away from all types of consumer loans, operating loans, leveraging funds, and down-cycle debt is the biggest killer of wealth and invests without any leverage
Without pursuing short-term hotspots, the rotation of the hotspots during the cycle transition is extremely rapid, and short-line speculation is very easy to catch up and lose
3. Participation in the equity market with only three to five years of idle capital, with no short-term investment in the stock market
4. Continuous learning of new cycles of industrial knowledge, proactive adaptation of ai, new energy-related skills, and personal income tracks to keep up with the benefits of the times。
V. Comprehensive summary: 2026 is the bottom node, and 60 years are missed
The complete conbo span of 60 years, with only one bottom-down opportunity in a lifetime, in 2026, at the close of the fifth cycle of information technology, the sixth round of technology, the last window in our generation of ordinary people to reshape wealth on a wide scale。
The cycle varies from one round to another: multipolarity brings home-grown industrial dividends, technological overtones accelerate the time of realization of gains, the shift of wealth carriers from real estate to hard technology, regulatory mechanisms to avoid extreme collapses, and opportunities are better suited to the general public in the country. There is no need to fear short-term economic shocks at the end of a depression that will always be prosperous, where patience and discipline will prevail, and when the new cycle of recovery is fully in place, the pre-existing accumulation of high-quality assets will yield the upper dividends of more than a decade。
Cycles will never be biased towards anyone, who can see the tides, move in order to travel through economic fluctuations and steadily accumulate long-term wealth of his own。
Interactive discussion on the topic
Do you recognize that this is at the bottom of the combo cycle
Are you leaning more towards the technology growth track or the safest things
3. Will you gradually shift to equity markets in the future when you have built wealth from real estate
