Today, 15 august, the domestic gold market has seen a marked return, with the simultaneous decline in gold, au99999, and gold t+d, as well as the downwards of many brand gold stores. Gold prices have rebounded again in the near future, with discussions in the market on gold rising again, long-term configuration values remaining, while short-term prices have not only risen, but have become more costly and silos。
I. Domestic gold prices fall and retail prices remain high in gold stores
Domestic gold prices have been adjusted, with the 2610 contract for gold reporting 940. 8 yuan/g, a decrease of 1. 94 per cent; au9999 and gold t+d have also experienced varying degrees of decline. The price of gold recovered fell to close to $925/g, with some of the channel offers of approximately $920/g。
The price reduction at the brand gold store is synchronized with $1312/g in the zhou dafu gold newspaper, $1306/g in the zhou student, $1310/g in the six-fast jewellery and $1310/g in the old fengxiang. China has relatively low brand prices for gold and vegetables, and retail prices for platinum are mostly concentrated between $615 and $681/g。
In terms of actual purchase costs, the gap between branded jewellery and investment gold remains wide, with multiple bank offers ranging from $950 to $960/g for investment gold bars, $952/g for china's gold investment treaty and $947. 7/g for the vegetable investment treaty. Some of the jewellery brands are invested in gold bars exceeding $1,000/g, while jewellery gold generally exceeds $1,300/g。
The price of jewellery consists of the costs of branding, process, door operation, etc., which are usually recovered at the price of raw materials. Buying at around $1310 and retrieving at 920 multiples, the median price is close to $400, simply to invest in gold, and jewellery is not a less costly way。
Ii. The price of gold is long-standing and does not mean every location is fit to buy
International gold has recently re-emerged, with real gold in london increasing by more than 8 per cent since august, at one point close to $4450 per ounce. Prior to that, gold prices had fallen nearly 30 per cent from their high position at the beginning of the year, and many earlier periods had experienced a clear shock。
The market has seen gold in the long term, based on a number of sources, the global central bank is still increasing its reserves and the demand for diversification of international reserve assets has not disappeared. Factors such as united states debt, united states dollar credit and geo-risk also continue to give the gold its assigned value。
Long-term logic does not mean that prices are negligible, that gold itself has no interest and that holding it entails opportunity costs. The market can judge the price of the gold by looking not only at the fed's interest rate decline, but also at the real interest rate, which is broadly understood as a nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations。
Oil prices are lagging behind, inflation is expected to fall, and if the rate of return on united states debt falls at a slower pace, real interest rates will rise and gold may be under pressure in the short term。
The united states dollar does not always work in reverse with the gold, and the dollar and the gold may be rewarded with money when the market avoids heat. The “long-term weakening of the united states dollar” is directly understood as a “long-term only increase in gold” and can easily ignore large market fluctuations。
Iii. The central bank buys gold, and the prices are considered
Continued central bank purchases are often seen as an important basis for the long-term rise in gold, and world gold association-related data show that global official institutions have continued to increase gold allocation in recent years, with a more pronounced trend towards diversity of reserves. The central bank does not see gold bought on a continuous basis, but it also considers costs, liquidity and asset ratios。
The central bank of china has been holding gold for many months, and the pace of purchase at high prices has become more cautious, and the size of the distribution has changed. This practice is compatible with the recognition of the long-term value of an asset and does not amount to a willingness to buy in large quantities at any price。
The central bank of korea has also re-encumbered its gold-related asset allocation, and an increasing number of central banks have reassessed the role of gold in foreign exchange reserves, providing long-term demand for gold. Central bank demand is better suited to determine long-term direction than to predict price increases or declines in days or weeks。
Iv. Ordinary people buy gold, which is better suited to control positions than to chase up
Gold-based subject matter items have performed fairly well this year, with the rapid increase in gold prices at the beginning of the year and the centralization of related products by finance companies; the price adjustment has resulted in some products being purified and the pace of their issuance significantly cooled. After the august price rebound, the net value of the remaining products returned to the top of the cost line。
Such experiences remind investors that net values can fluctuate as long as there is a link between earnings and gold prices, even if the product is labelled as a medium- and low-risk. Gold has a risk-averse effect and does not mean that it will not lose money during its holding。
In terms of price trends, $4,300 above is still a high area, with a more visible capital game near $4450 to $4,500, and $4285 below and $4234 below are the usual market observations. Short-line operations, which require continuous judgement of interest rates, dollars, rates of return on united states debt and market sentiment, are not easy for ordinary investors。
Households are better positioned to allocate gold as part of the risk of dispersing assets than as a short-term doubling tool. A lump-sum buy-in of funds, with a 20 per cent or even larger fallback, can easily affect normal life and investment judgement, and can be phased and controlled more easily than price fluctuations。
A long-term vision of gold can be a justification for holding it, but not for keeping up. Gold is closer to an asset insurance: when needed, too many configurations increase costs and affect the investment experience, often not the purchase of gold, but the purchase price, the holding ratio and the ability to withstand the retreat。
