In 2026, the depth of the building was adjusted, and the supply of first-line urban dwellings was at an all-time high
We had dinner with some old classmates this weekend and we talked about the house。
A friend who had been in beijing for eight years, had a glass of wine, said the whole table was silent。
He said, "i've got $800,000 in the bank. I've got a down payment. But i'm afraid to buy it. I'm not afraid of falling house prices, i'm afraid of -- i bought it and found myself the last one."
How about that
It is even more reassuring that none of the six people present here can refute him。
Halfway through 2026, where's the bottom of the market? No one made it clear。
But i've been looking at a lot of data recently, and i've been running a couple of city-wide intermediaries, and i've found a truth that everyone's been missing
The city restructuring of the wheel building was completely different from that of 2008 and 2014. It used to be a "fall and go," this time it might be a "change."。
Three signals, very unusual. You taste, you taste。
Signal one: the landlord and the buyer are playing "who blinks first."。
Look at the second-hand room. It's scary。
Beijing is close to 150,000, shanghai is over 180,000, and guangzhou and shenzhen are all historically high. You think all these houses are going down
That's weird. Landlords don't panic。
I've known a guy who's been a middleman for 12 years. He told me that the landlord had dropped the price once a day during the previous two years, and it was a shock. And now? When the client finished looking at the room, the landlord went straight to the point: the price was bought or not, and i kept it。
The buyer is in no hurry. Used to be called "house robbing" and now it's called "house robbing". One house is hanging out, the buyer can count for a week and wait for the next week。
Both sides are waiting。
For what? Nobody knows。
It's not the rise or the fall, it's the "suspension" of the market. You don't know where it's going tomorrow. Nobody moves。
According to the national statistical office, the country's 70-city housing price index was generally stable in the first half of 2026, but inter-city fragmentation increased
Signal 2: the new room and the old one are two ways。
Now the new building, the developers are really fighting。
Previously, 75 per cent of the home occupancy rate had been good, and more than 90 per cent was now successful. As the doors were repaired, the standard for renovations had risen from 1,000 to 3,000. Some even give you a house full of smart houses。
Why is it so rolly
Because they can't really sell without a roll. In the first half of this year, the average rate of de-digration of the 100-city new disc was less than 40 per cent. In other words, the developers built 10 houses and sold up to four on the opening day, with the rest slowly。
But what's interesting is that the other side -- old and small -- is warmed up。
You're right. It's the kind of old man who's been rejected for three or four years。
The volume of trade has been rising this year. Who's buying? Young man. What kind of mind? Get in the car first。
A friend of mine bought a small, 40-square, $1. 9 million a year ago. He said, "it's a bit suffocated, but downstairs it's the market, the subway station, the hospital, and the monthly mortgage is $500 less than the rent. What am i drawing?"
You see, the city is quietly cracking into two worlds: the rich buy new houses and the poor pick-up cars. The worst part is the middle one — no less, no less, no less, no more for six months。
In 2026, the building market entered the buyer's market, the buyer looked at the house more rationally and the decision-making cycle increased markedly
Signal three: all the moves are made, but the market is not buying。
Down payment, down interest rates, off-limits, home-buying, draw-back, tax deduction, old for new..
You can think of all the tricks, all of them. Some cities even reduced the down payment to 15 per cent and interest rates to less than 3 per cent。
Five years ago, when such a policy came out, the house price flew。
But now what? Every time the policy comes out, the market gets excited for a week or two, and then continues to lie down. It's like taking a deflammation pill, it's working, it's burning back。
Why
Because the root of the problem is not policy。
My friend from hangzhou who's an it associate, who earns 25,985 masters a month, is the rightful owner. But he said to me, "the company's cut two rounds this year, not on me, but i can't afford 30 years of mortgage. If one day they're fired, who's gonna pay for the house?"
In a word, it's the nature of the wheelhouse — it's not that we don't have money, it's that we can't afford。
I can't afford it, i can't。
There is only one reason to be afraid: no confidence in future income。
Buying or renting? Young people's choices are changing in 2026
So, in the second half of 2026, what do we do
I'll be clear with you。
If you just need — getting married, getting kids to school, really need a nest — you can really think about it now. Low interest rates, the quality of developers' rolls, and housing prices in many cities have fallen back in 2017. But remember one thing: ** from today on, don't count on buying a house. The house is a place to live, not an investment. **
If you're an investor-- i'd advise you to be sober. The era of closed eyes buying a house, lying on the ground making money is completely over. Only a few cities, at the very core, will have a preservation function, and the houses of most cities will win the term deposit in the next decade。
If you're still hesitant -- then don't rush. It is not the seller market, it is the buyer market. The agency's pushing you to "sale up." that's his job. Your job is to stay calm, slowly pick and wait for someone who can afford to wait for a real chance。
The last sentence is for you and for myself:
The city's worst panic has passed, but the worst may not have come。
In 2026, it wasn't bought earlier than it was bought。
What do you think? The city you're in, how much has the price dropped? Are you going to buy a house this year or wait? I want to hear your real thoughts。
Let's just say it's true
