A couple of years ago, when the people went crazy and robbed the house, an old man in business came out and said the truth: houses are consumer goods that are piled up in steel and cement. They cannot rise forever. There was a web-based scolding that he was a glass maker who knew nothing about real estate and was simply bluffing。
No one thought that it suddenly became a reality in august 2026. The policy has been intense, trade-offs have picked up and the city has become more divided, and the whole city is undergoing a bottom-up re-engineering of logic that nobody calls for. Many are still arguing whether housing prices have gone up or down, and those who really understand have found that something more important than prices has changed。
This turn is not a collective rebound in house prices across the country, or a total collapse, but a 20-year-old "buy-the-house" faith is breaking down. The same is true for the purchase of housing, where some buy security of life, while others buy 30 years of debt bondage. What happened? How did cao dewan's pre-judgment come about
I think we can't just look down at the city and look at a few dollars and drop a few points this month. Cao dewan, who is not a real estate expert, is of real manufacturing origin and has a very different perspective from that of the property analysts. He is judged by the nature of supply and demand, the flow of wealth and demographic patterns。
From a bystander's perspective, he was verbally abused by so many people because he had broken many of his wealth illusions. Over the past two decades, home purchases have been the only source of the most definite value added available to ordinary people. You're suddenly told that this road is not going to work, that anyone's first reaction is against it。
Together with an analysis of the course of the whole thing, cao dewan's prejudicion is in fact a three-said sentence, each of which accurately corresponds to the current market situation. In one sentence, you can see what this transition means when you look around。
First, the house is a consumer and not a permanent motive. Cao dewan tried his own estate in the early days, at a loss of $300 million, and then for decades he never touched property development. He said that steel and cement could not be of value in themselves, that they were out of residential demand and that problems arose sooner or later。
The logic behind this study shows that in the past housing prices had been rising, not because the house itself had become valuable, but because of rapid urbanization, massive population movements and monetary easing. Just as a car with both a gas door and a clutch, speed does not mean that the car itself works well。
In my judgement, these drivers are now weakening. The rate of urbanization has reached a high level, the number of young people has peaked, income growth has slowed, and the number of connectors is naturally low. The fact that the houses are being built more and more, and that those who really need them are unable to afford them, is the core contradiction。
In the second sentence, the firehouse is the drumming flower, the day it stops. Tsao dewan gave a very straightforward example: rich families are hoarding three or five houses, and young people who really need them have limited incomes and no access to them. Finally, the house had to fall in the hands of the rich, and no one took the game。
This is the second-hand house market in 2026, in terms of actual landing results. Ninety-two of the 100 cities in the 100-city housing price data are still falling, with high listings and many landlords having difficulty in making a deal. It's not a house that nobody wants. It's too expensive to pick up。
I think a lot of people have no idea what "empty room" is. A set of houses is empty there, property costs, maintenance costs and depreciation are all available, and are net annual expenses. In the past, when house prices had risen, no one had cared about that cost, and now the cost of holding them began to appear, and many suites became a burden on cash flows。
In the third sentence, the city would be completely divided and the era of the boom would never return. Cao dewan said long ago that not all houses are worth money. Inflows of people, well-developed industries and well-connected places, houses can be preserved and houses can continue to devalue where there is an outflow of people without industrial support。
The answer given by reality is clear. Data from the days before august show that second-hand houses in front-line cities have grown by more than 13 per cent in comparison with each other, and by 22 per cent in shanghai; but in many third-line cities, the second-hand rooms have been on board for six months without anyone asking whether the price drops or the deal will be difficult. Under the same sky, two completely different markets。
I think that's the real big turn. It used to go up with eyes closed, and then it went down in the wrong place and the wrong section, probably for 30 years. House prices are no longer rising or falling, but better and worse, and polarization is becoming more pronounced。
We need to talk about this august policy. Many people look at policy untying and say, "house prices are going up," but they don't really understand the real intentions of policy. Beijing reduced the non-kyoto home-buying social security requirement from two years to one year, and the provident fund was able to borrow up to 3. 4 million; and several hundred cities across the country reduced down payments, interest rates, and rehousing taxes。
This essentially exposes a central problem: the policy is not aimed at raising housing prices, but at placing the market in place, mitigating risks and triggering real housing needs. The down payment to 15 percent is an opportunity for people who really want to buy a house to get on a car, not to leverage a tenant。
Policy effects are indeed structural in terms of actual landing results. There has been a marked upturn in the supply of housing in the core cities, high-quality areas, and prices have stabilized; far-off suburbs, old and small, and paper palletes are difficult to sell or hard to sell. The policy is bottom-up, not price-up, and it must be clear。
I'm sure that the policy direction that follows will continue. Housing has been formally included in the bulk of consumption, in front of cars and electricity, and is the number one catcher of domestic demand. But stimulating consumption is not the same as creating bubbles, encouraging house purchases is not the same as encouraging fire, and borders are clearly drawn。
Let's say we're all concerned: can we buy a house now? In fact, the answer lies in the third sentence of cao dewan -- division. The house can't be bought any more. "the house is worth nothing."。
If you're just starting to live, you're working steadily, you're going to grow in one city for a long time, you have low down payment, low interest rates, high-quality housing options in the core, it's really a good window period. After all, the house is for living, you need it, and the right price can be considered。
But if you're thinking about investing in value added and trying to make money by buying a house, then i'm telling you. The era of the skyrocketing is over, with the wrong cities, the wrong places, not only not making money, but perhaps even fighting. When the house becomes less mobile, paper wealth becomes cash, a pile of steel and cement。
From the perspective of bystanders, it is not the lack of a house that is most dangerous, the emptying of six wallets, the carrying of 30 years of loans, and the purchase of a house that will neither sell nor rent. This asset is nominally yours, and it is actually a shackle on you。
It is apparent through superficial policy that what the state really wants to do is to return the house to its identity. To make it affordable for those who really need it, to slow down those who fire their houses and to allow markets to land softly. It's not a crash, it's not a boom, it's a logical switch。
I think for ordinary people the greatest inspiration is to stop thinking about houses as beliefs. The house used to carry too much: value added, class crossing, marriage threshold, source of security. After that it will slowly turn back to what it was like -- a place to live。
This is also, in essence, a turning point in the notion of wealth for society as a whole. Over the past two decades, all people have been squeezed into real estate, while the real economy has been lost. Now the myth of the wealth of the house, the slow flow of capital and talent to the manufacturing, technological and technological industries is good for the long-term development of the country。
The logic behind it reveals that cao dewan said those words, not against real estate, but that he, as an industrialist, saw the pitfalls of getting off the ground. A country cannot afford to be rich on housework for all, but it has to have people who make their own products, make technology and do business。
As a result of actual landings, the road, although slow, is steady. With the soft landing of the market and the gradual transformation of the economy, ordinary people will no longer have to be overpressed by high housing prices, spending money on their lives and on their own advancement, and the vitality of society as a whole。
Finally, talk about how ordinary people can cope with this turn. First of all, don't panic. You don't have to rush the pots and sell the whole house. The market is not a stock market. It does not roll over overnight. It is a slow variable。
There are multiple housing units in hand, especially vacant non-core segments of the 3rd and 4th-line cities, which can be progressively optimized during the policy window period. Leave a set of home-grown, high-quality land reserves, and those with no industry, no population-supported far-flungs, and paper-drives will be processed。
There's no need to worry about young people who haven't bought a house yet. The house won't be more expensive and the choice will be more and more. Focusing first on raising yourself and income, the industrial development and population in your city is much more important than short-term fluctuations in housing prices。
In my view, the price of the house has changed dramatically, not just in terms of prices, but in terms of human hearts. When everyone no longer sees the purchase of a house as the only goal of life, and does not spend half of their lives for a single house, society will be more likely. It is the true vitality of young people who dare to start a business, consume and pursue the life they want。
The answer given by reality is clear: one era is over and another is beginning. Some are remembering the golden years of the past and some are complaining about the current hardships, but the truly sober are already adapting to new rules and looking for new opportunities。
In august 2026, at this point in august, cao dewan's prognosis was no more than a brilliant conjecture, but an old man who had spent his whole life doing business, speaking of the simplest common sense -- nothing could rise forever, and the bubble of true value would come back sooner or later。
