In july 2026, the city showed a highly polarized pattern: a small structural warming of new houses, a continuing decline in the size of second-hand homes, a marked improvement in market resilience in the first-line core cities, greater pressure to adjust the stock of most cities on the second, third and fourth-line, and an increase in the stratification of the market with respect to land, trade, financial flows and top-level policies。
I. Significant discrepancies in core housing price data
1. New housing: average price increases in core cities only
The average price of new houses in the city increased by 0. 26 per cent, the first-line new-rooms by 0. 63 per cent, the second-line by 0. 14 per cent and the third-line by 0. 07 per cent. The shanghai new house ring has increased by 0. 96 per cent, with beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen going up in small steps to raise the overall level. The increase is statistical in nature and is not widespread throughout the city. The central cause of this increase is the large number of high-end improvements to the concentration of high-priced drives into the market in shanghai; the increase in the local ratio of more than 3 million home-based improvements to the stock exchange has continued, with the ministry of housing and construction's “good house” construction guide guiding the supply of high-quality housing, improving the centralized release of replacement demand and creating a resonance between supply and demand。
Second-hand rooms: 90 per cent lower urban prices and lower levels lower the bigger
The average second-hand price ratio in 100 cities fell by 0. 44 per cent, an increase over june, with only 8 cities experiencing an increase in second-hand house prices and 92 cities falling; first-, second- and third-line second-hand falls by 0. 25, 0. 45 and 0. 48 per cent, respectively. Shanghai is the only first-line city where the prices of second-hand houses have risen (the ring ratio + 0. 09 per cent) and the country generally has a price-for-money shift: shanghai and beijing have increased by 19 per cent and 9. 8 per cent, respectively, each with a warmer, but under pressure; shenzhen's second-hand room has been shrinking and the market has shifted from one-sided buyer to demand and supply. The current share of second-hand houses traded across the country is new and prices are more reflective of market realities。
Land market: quality plots in hardcore cities
In july, a number of heavy competitions took place in the core areas of shanghai, beijing and guangzhou, resulting in high regional price premiums that were negotiated and updated; in 2026, shanghai had a 35 per cent premium on four plots. By completely abandoning the global land acquisition model, only deep-seated core urban areas are being cultivated, and higher land prices further boost the confidence of home buyers in the core properties, creating land prices, market confidence and improving demand。
Iii. A fundamental shift in market investment logic
The number of commercial apartments in shenzhen increased by 60. 6 per cent in january-july, and the rate of growth exceeded the rate of housing. The hard-selling core of apartments is driven by stable rent returns, which in some cases exceed 3 per cent. The market investment mentality has shifted from “dependent on the value added of housing prices” to “long-term stable rent collection”, and in the context of the expected weakening of residential prices, funds have been diverted to low-sum, rent-free types of assets, representing the logic of investment at the bottom of the market。
Iv. Top-level policy setting: stabilizing property to the security level
A meeting of the central political bureau on 30 july adjusted the real estate narrative by deleting the word “efforts” in the words “in an effort to stabilize the real estate market”, while incorporating property blocks into the framework of “building security barriers”, advancing in concert with localized debt, financial risk prevention and control, with a policy focus on resolving property risks. The policy goal is a modest rise and fall in the housing market, which entails both lower urban risks and the recognition of a reasonable rehabilitation of the core cities; the “fifty-five” plan for expanded consumption, which places housing consumption at the top of the bulk, will be followed by a land landing policy, an incremental support initiative, and a living stock of housing and land resources。
Overall market conclusions
The current market situation is not uniform, with multiple layers of market fragmentation accelerating: the core of the first-line cities has a strong supply and demand base and the heat of the land is strong; most second-hand houses in the second, third and fourth row continue to go to stock and prices downwards; just need to wait and improve replacement to become new homeowners; and investment funds have shifted to rent-return assets. Policies can only hold the market bottom line and do not level the huge stratification between cities, plates and products. Understanding market segmentation is the key to judging the market's dynamics。
