Xinhua news, beijing, january 3rd
Zinhua news agency journalist ouyang, zhong feng, chen stad
In 2026, the world economy was headed for a new sea. The cloud of geo-conflicts, the barriers posed by unilateralism and protectionism, the fragmentation of macroeconomic policies, and the impact of the new technological revolution together create a complex picture. Will the world economy finally pass through the fog of uncertainty in the face of major global changes and adjustments? What are the challenges and opportunities for global growth
Question: what are the prospects for world economic growth
Major international economic institutions and organizations, such as the international monetary fund (imf) and oecd, generally forecast a slowdown in the world economy in 2026, continuing uncertainty, increased protectionist measures and labour supply imbalances in some countries, and fiscal vulnerability in some countries, potential financial market risks and other threats to market stability。
The view was also expressed that the global economy was expected to remain stable in 2026. A recent report by the nomura global macro research team suggests that, supported by artificially intelligent investment booms and more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, the global economy will show signs of stability and even accelerated growth in 2026, but growth will remain uneven across regions。
As the largest economy in the world, the united states economy is not looking well. According to rebecca patterson, an economist at morgan chase and bridgewater investments, an increasing number of structural pillars in the united states economy are showing signs of instability and risk。
In asia, the enormous investment needs generated by the green transition and the digital revolution have begun to develop a new dynamic of growth. A recent publication in the singapore business times notes that asia has a prominent advantage as the most resilient engine of growth worldwide. The region, supported by sound domestic demand, reliable policy systems and accelerated technological change, will continue to outpace growth in other regions。
Tom arando, chief executive officer of the kenya manufacturers association, argued that in 2026, the trend towards regional integration in the global economic landscape would likely increase, south-south trade and investment flows would become more dynamic and the role of the global south in driving world economic growth would continue to expand。
Ii: how global trade and supply chain patterns evolve
In recent days, the term “tax” has been elected by popular vote at the malaysia year 2025 ceremony, reflecting the global impact of the indiscriminate application of tariffs by the united states. As the impact of high tariff policies in the united states emerges, new trade frictions may emerge globally and are expected to slow global investment and trade prospects in 2026。
The world trade organization has recently reduced the growth in global trade in goods in 2026 significantly to 0. 5 per cent, well below the 2. 4 per cent in 2025. Wto economists have stressed that trade restrictive measures and policy uncertainty spread to more economies and industries, posing major downside risks。
The rise of protectionism and increased geopolitical tensions have forced more firms to revisit their global supply chains and investment patterns. Some economies may accelerate the return of industries, and the trend towards localization and regionalization of supply chains is more pronounced。
According to luis paolino, a professor at the state university of são paulo, brazil, trade tensions have led some countries to promote the transfer of production to areas politically considered safer or closer to end markets, leading to a reduction and regionalization of supply chains. In the future, this policy orientation of placing security above efficiency will continue。
Three questions: is artificial intelligence a risk or an opportunity
According to data from the united states consulting firm cordner, global ai-related inputs are expected to exceed $2 trillion in 2026. Science, technology and innovation, represented by ai, are profoundly changing the global economic landscape and, while providing new dynamics for growth, also pose structural adjustment challenges. Balancing innovation dynamics with risk challenges will be a key issue for national policymakers in the coming year。
It was argued that in the short term, the ai boom could fuel investment bubbles, exacerbate income inequality globally and lead to widening disparities between rich and poor。
“the global economy is becoming `k'-styled, income and wealth disparities are widening, and artificial intelligence is likely to exacerbate this,” said nomura's global macro research manager and co-director of the global markets research department, soboven (foreign name rob sabalaman), “advisory intelligence may also lead to changes in employment structures.”
In the long term, experts believe that science, technology and innovation, represented by artificial intelligence, will be key forces in increasing labour productivity and generating new business practices. These innovations have significantly increased productivity in areas such as manufacturing, services and agriculture, contributed to the structural transformation and upgrading of industries and generated new industries and jobs。
According to the professor of economics at the frankfurt school of financial management and the co-chair of the centre of central germany, khost lecher, ai will be a commonly applied technology for decades to come, “covering almost all production processes”。
Question four: how macroeconomic policies affect markets
Monetary policy in major developed economies is expected to become more fragmented in 2026. The fed may or will continue to ease its monetary roots; the ecb is nearing the end of its interest-rate cycle and is expected to adopt more prudent monetary policies; and the bank of japan is likely to continue to raise interest rates in the face of rising pressures on inflation in the country。
Monetary policy adjustments in the united states tend to significantly affect global cross-border capital flows, asset pricing and exchange rate stability. Against the backdrop of increased geo-conflict and global inflationary pressures, the fed’s interest rate reduction and balance sheet adjustment will add new uncertainty to the global economy and financial markets, which may result in heat money flowing into emerging markets and sparking bubbles to bury the financial hazard. For emerging economies, this means a more complex external environment and greater challenges to policy trade-offs。
Fiscal policies in major economies have also led to market nerves. The current high levels of public debt in many developed economies and the sharp rise in long-term bond yields reflect investors ' concerns about fiscal risk. According to the british economist, some governments rely on central banks to maintain low interest rates to reduce the debt burden, and the risk of a crisis in the bond market is increasing。
Globally, while the united states dollar remains the main reserve currency and trading medium, the international community's concern about the dollar system has been growing, and many countries and regions have begun to reflect on overdependence on the dollar, particularly in the context of the political polarization of the united states, the widening fiscal deficit and rising debt levels, with some economies likely accelerating the process of “de-dollarization”。
Five: what is china's economic outlook? Look
In the new year, how the chinese economy weathered the pressures of changes in the external environment and achieved its stated growth goals was of great interest and expectation to the international community. Overseas people believe that the chinese economy, with its institutional advantages, super-large markets, well-developed industrial systems and dynamic innovation, will not only provide solid support for its high-quality development, but will also continue to contribute certainty and stability to the world economy as an important engine of global growth。
“the chinese economy will show remarkable resilience despite the challenges.” the world bank chief economist for china, mirissa, said that in 2026, china's macroeconomic policy and the structural reforms that had been pursued would continue to be effective. In the long run, china's economic growth potential remains considerable。
According to the european modern diplomacy website, 2026 marked the beginning of china's “155” plan. In the face of external risk challenges, china will focus its economic efforts on building a strong domestic market. It will increase investment in science and technology industries, such as artificial intelligence, and deepen reforms to boost domestic demand-led economic development。
At present, new qualitative productivity accelerates the reshaping of china's economic growth patterns and becomes an important focus for high-quality development. The daily times website in pakistan commented that china would promote high-quality development driven by innovation and advanced productivity and that modern services, artificial intelligence-related industries and green transformation would provide new growth dynamics。
Last december, the island-wide closure was officially launched at hainan free trade port. This is a landmark step in china's determined efforts to expand its high level of external openness and to promote an open world economy. The director of the international trade and commodities division of the united nations conference on trade and development (unctad), dragola, believes that china's deep involvement in global supply chains and value chains, which are closely linked to the world, will continue to serve as a key engine of global trade and economic growth。
In the recent past, the imf, the world bank, oecd, the asian development bank and others have moved up the expectations of china's economic growth. According to the imf managing director, georgieva, believing that china's economy could achieve stronger growth in the future, “china's contribution to global economic growth is expected to remain around 30 per cent in the coming years”。
According to spanish economist pedro barragán, china's economy is entering a mature phase and transitioning towards a people-centred, more balanced, innovative and green development. The role of china as an engine of the global economy would be strengthened against a backdrop of uncertainty and the urgent need for a new dynamism。
