On 25 april 2025, the ministry of general affairs of japan released data showing:
Rice prices in the tokyo metropolitan region
(a) an increase of 91. 2 per cent in april, the highest increase since 1971
Average price comparison
(a) five kilograms of yen 4217 (approximately yen 214), which is almost double the equivalent of the same period in 2024 (yen 2200)
National crisis
In 15 prefectures, such as osaka and fukuoka, the price of rice in hokkaido exceeded yen 20,000 per 600,000 kg。
The government intervention failed: the reserves were so close to thirst
Emergency drop
The ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan dropped 300,000 tons of rice on 18 april, but only 15 per cent of monthly consumption, mostly in 2023, was boycotted by consumers。
Broken supply chain
: typhoon sea god destroyed 120,000 tons of storage in kyushu and guandong and logistics delays exacerbated the wave of shopping。
Structural crisis
Ageing + output reduction
Japanese rice farmers were 68 years old on average in 2024, rice cultivation fell by 23 per cent compared to 2010, and the subsistence rate fell by 90 per cent
Speculative accumulation
On the other hand, in the past few years, there has been a rise in the price of retail sales。
Human impact: chain reactions from table to society
Family burdens
(a) the average monthly expenditure of rice of the four families was more than yen15,000 (760), rising from 7 per cent to 18 per cent
The winter of the catering industry
: the sushi shop's “low-cost package” disappeared and the silver kiosk stopped selling and distributed sushi
Crime surged
In fukuoka and kobe, there were several cases of theft of supermarket rice shelves, involving a maximum of 500,000 yen。
Deep-seated cause: the double collapse of climate and policy
"a hundred years hottest" destruction
The high temperature of 40°c in the summer of 2024 exceeded 30 per cent of the rice crust in the north-east and north-east regions, resulting in a sharp drop of 27 per cent in total production over the same period。
Subsidy policy failure
(b) the government allowance of 600,000 yen (3050) per hectare for the reduction of production was approved as a “cup and cart” and 70 per cent of the farmers in qingmeng county abandoned cultivation
Wto limit
: japan has not been able to significantly increase its rice import tariffs (now 778 per cent) due to international trade rules, and the domestic capacity gap has not been bridged。
Global food price resonance: japan in microcosm
International rice prices
(a) impacted by el niño, in march 2025, the fob of shami, thailand, increased by 40 per cent each year and import costs in japan surged
Chain effect
In south korea, taiwan, china, rice prices have risen by over 30 per cent, and east asia is facing an era of “primary inflation”。
Concluding remarks
The “white crisis” not only exposed the fragility of japan's agricultural system, but also warned about the food insecurity in extreme weather conditions worldwide. Rice in a job becomes a luxury, perhaps just a turning point in reshaping food sovereignty and climate resilience。
