I. A repeat of the current day (18 june)
The qingshan paper industry (600103) collected 3. 48 yuan on 18 june, a decrease of 0. 11 from the previous trading date of 3. 59 yuan, a decrease of 3. 06 per cent per day; and the opening of the business on that day of 3. 56 yuan, a maximum of 3. 58 yuan, a minimum of 3. 47 yuan, a full-time deal of 355 million yuan, a turnover of 1,018 million hands and a change of hands rate of 4. 57 per cent. The whole day-to-day vulnerability shock, a small roll-out, sustained downward pressure, no back-flow recovery of funds on the tailings, and full-time collection of the physical vagina。
At the financial level, there were 12,843 million net outflows of capital on that day, and 4,176 million net outflows of funds on 3, 5, 5 and 10 days respectively, 55. 99 million yuan and 138 million yuan on that day, leaving short-term funds behind and releasing them. During the same period, the cardboard index dropped by 2. 69 per cent, the entire plate line was weak, each share fell in resonance with the plate, there was no stand-alone resistance, and the industry cycle was dominated by space and space。
Ii. Core drivers of the same day
(i) poor industry cycles and weak demand for and supply of pulp
In june, the traditional demand in the paper industry was reduced, cultural paper and downstream purchases were maintained only in demand, there was a high stock of finished end-products, and the paper plant was proactive in reducing the procurement of wood pulp, creating a negative feedback cycle of “lower profit margins and weaker slurry prices”. Pulp stocks in domestic ports are maintained at a high level of more than 2. 3 million tons, price increases of 10 dollars for foreign pallet folates, no cost support for feedstocks, expected repair of the plate for profit, and collective circumvention of paper cycle markers are a downhill logic。
(ii) short-term technological fragmentation, quantification and short-term capital flight
The unit has been falling steadily since its high point of $5. 14 during the first period of the year, with the 5-day and 10-day averages forming empty positions, with a sharp drop of 2. 97 per cent on 17 june and a continuation of adjustments on 18 june. The stock price has collapsed at an average short-term market cost of $3. 51 key support positions, triggering a quantitative cut-off and a centralized sale of short-line profit discs; and the mcd indicator dif has formed a dead fork below the dif, with a constant discharge of the empty motion, a confirmation of a technical backsliding signal, which has exacerbated the plate throw。
(iii) weak performance base and inadequate valuation support
In 2026, the net profit from the return of the company to its mother was $15,1629,000, reflecting a decline of 50. 59 per cent over the same period. The paper-making industry was shrunk by slurry price fluctuations; the current ttm market margin is 199. 13 times higher and the traditional paper business valuation is significantly higher and the premium is supported only by the light module concept. In the off-season cycle, profits are expected to decline further, the logic of high valuations is relaxed, and funds are chosen to deliver on the conceptual benefits。
(iv) decomposition of concepts and cooling of subject matter
The previous stock price rise was based on the ai algorithm of the promulgated light module of the holding sub-syndicate company, entering the post-june split of the calculator plate, the acceleration of the rotation of small vote lines, the flow of market funds to the main line of the high-scenes track, the loss of the capital complex with the dual properties of the paper folding and lighting module, the continued compression of the premium on the subject and the overlapping of the industry, creating double downward pressure。
Iii. Medium- and long-term underpinnings and risks
Core support logic
1. Barriers to the integration of resources in wood and paper: the company owns millions of acres of wood and bamboo wood, with a 60 per cent feed rate for raw materials, 200,000 tons of mackerel having been converted to production in the fourth quarter of 2026, at a cost of less than 15-20 per cent of wood and with a cost-scillation capability in the lower stages of the cycle; the domestic market for stretch paper and paper is the first and the packaging requirements have rigid defensive properties。
2. Financial security advances are adequate: provincial state holdings, with an asset-liability ratio of only 28. 3 per cent, well below industry averages, no debt-servicing pressures, stable operating cash flows, allowing for fluctuations in the main business cycle, and sustained investment in light modules and pharmaceutical operations。
3. Second growth curve potential: a steady increase in the earnings and profits of sub-companys, a steady release of 400 g products, a gradual drop of 800 g products, and growth space for the long-term computing needs of ai, with the prospect of reshaping the valuation logic if the second half of the year of light module operations fall short of expectations。
Continued suppression of risk
Down-cycle risk: pulp supply and demand patterns were irreversibly reversed three quarters ago, paper prices and low-level concussion, and maori pressure continued in the paper industry, with further downswing in the reported performance expectations。
2. Conceptual valuation retreat risk: increased competition in the light module industry, reduced profits from price wars in the industry, and continued contraction of the premium on the subject if the subsidiary did not perform as expected。
3. Financial leverage risks: the short-term backbone continues to slow down, and the downward trend in shocks cannot be quickly reversed without the institutional incremental funding。
Iv. The prognosis of future trends in the cycle
Short-term (1-2 weeks): seismic background, limited rebound space
There is a clear trend towards short-term empty space, with a first support of $3. 45 (low point on 12 june) and a strong support for the 3. 40 integer level; the upper pressure of $3. 51 short-term cost line and 3. 60 pre-earthquake platform. In the light of the poor platinum season and the continued outflow of funds, the rebound is dominated by technical repairs, which, if the absence of a plate policy and a major order for light modules are good, are unlikely to exceed 3 per cent in size, maintaining an estimated rate of 3. 40-3. 60 yuan for vulnerability shocks and not excluding the down-scrutinizing of $3. 40。
Medium (1-3 months, 3 quarters): bottom grinding, turning point to demand and performance
The july-august poor paper season continued, with stock prices dominated by low-level grinding and digestion; the core nodes observed two major signals: the loss of the port pulp stock and the reversal of the price of the outer disk; and the significant increase in performance reported in the round-tone module. If the two signals resonate, the stock price is expected to rise steadily and the target of $3. 70-3. 85 is repaired; if supply and demand continue to weaken and light modules perform poorly, the low-level shock is maintained and the upper space is insufficient。
Long-term (second to end of year): low and steady forward, flexible reliance on energy release
In 2026, the industry as a whole was projected to be “weak in the first half of the year and stable in the second half of the year”, with full release of mackerel modification capacity in the fourth quarter, with a higher cost advantage for raw materials; a reduction in the production site of overseas mills, a warmer demand for packaging paper at the end of the year and the expected restoration of the profitability of the paper industry. High-end product release of super-lighted modules, valuation space for restoration, mid- to long-term bottom lifting, but without basic face change driven, it is difficult to move out of the unilateral surge, with the overall inter-band operation。
Operational strategy tips
Short-term investors: short-term investors are on a falling path and are not ready to take a bottom run before it is stable, rebounding to 3. 50-3. 55 yuan to avoid further adjustment risks, waiting for a steady amount of mdcd gold fork to be considered for low-suction。
Medium-line investors: supporting batch layouts with a ceiling of $3. 40, setting up a cut-off of $3. 35, catalysing the performance of supply and demand points and light modules in the three quarters of the game, and $3. 70-3. 85 between target zones。
Risk tips: continued decline in pulp prices, continuing low demand for downstream packaging, less profitable light module operations than expected, and continued outflow of market-based funds。
Risk tips: this report is based only on an objective analysis of public exposure, industry data and does not constitute any investment proposal, and the stock market is at greater risk of volatility and investors need to make rational decisions in relation to their own risk tolerance。
