In recent days, the circle of friends of journalists of the chinese newspaper china operating has been screened by a group of “owners” selling “the special room today” by second-hand house brokers。
“the highest price for sex is a single villa! With a private spa price of 3. 42 million, the special price today is $27 million, and the unit price is only $36. 6 million!” “screw the leak! The owner is selling 5 million luxuries, the east two circles is selling only 83,000, the district is selling more than 100,000, only to today!”
According to the data of the bureau of statistics, in june the price of second-hand houses in beijing fell by 1. 1 per cent, having been the largest in the country for two consecutive months。
In terms of sales volume, the most recent data provided by cesr statistics indicate that: the cumulative total number of second-hand house contracts in beijing in july was 7158, with a 20 per cent decline in the ring ratio, which was also the lowest value for the same period for 37 months since june 2014, when 6464 units fell, reaching 70 per cent per year。
The director-general of research at the centre for thinking and research of the institute of eviction has made a drastic leap forward in informing the newspaper china operating that household-type and transport are key to the more pronounced decline in the price of housing. In practice, the housing stock is too large because the total price is high, leaving fewer potential connectors. In relative terms, the housing stock below 90 m2 remains relatively high and prices have fallen slightly. In the case of school wards, since they have recently been subject to stricter controls, buyers have been relatively rational and have been looking forward to more。
The second half of the second-hand house price is not going to improve
According to the recent leeds house rental service, the city-wide high-end second-hand residential stock of 1961 was sold in january-june of this year, a decline of 28. 9 per cent over the previous six months, with the monthly turnover of high-end second-hand residential units expected to remain at around 200。
The sales data provided to journalists by ms. Hsu, a senior broker at the lizzie line, show that 1639 high-end second-hand apartments were sold in the first half of the year, down 30. 4 per cent from the same period last year, 240 in june and 40. 15 per cent from march. “high-end second-hand apartments are mainly located in the main urban area and demand is highly active.” according to ms. Xu, in terms of the distribution of high-activity buildings, trade was the most active around the country's trade, zhongkyung and east bank. Among them, the east lake bay in kyoto, the sunshine east in lidu, the sun palace, and the new city international, which did not have high turnover in previous years, broke 50 in the first half of the year。
The decline in the turnover is bound to have an impact on prices, which, in the current state of affairs, have stalled and have seen a small decline. However, in terms of the rankings of the major second-hand homes, the most price-related is the location of the project. Of these, the highest unit prices are found in manyoo, the financial streets, because of the small number of dwellings, the west region as a whole being higher than the east, and the prices remain strong. “as in huang d. C., known as the `city house', it is the highest-end project in the manyoon business circle, and the unit price is still over $150,000. There is also the high end of the financial street business circle, which represents the chinese sea, with around 200 square metres of household size, at a unit price of not less than 150,000 yuan.”
Ms. Xu indicated that, in the light of the impact of the 2010 buy-out policy, it was expected that the market prices for the second half of the year would remain stable。
“it is true that some owners are rushing to sell, so the price reduction is clear.” ms. Xu, for example, an owner of the north four-ring purple hills who wanted to come up with a villa with a total price of not less than $30 million, recently reduced the owner's price to $28 million, in order to do so as soon as possible。
In addition, a multimillion dollar one-time reduction in the size of the mansion, worth tens of millions of dollars, is common, even in the hae-hae compound, where a previous offer of 120 million dollars has been made. The director of the institute of chainers, yang, analysed the following: “in the case of second-hand homes, it is generally a high-end improvement, as `privatization' and the difficulty of lending makes it more difficult to change houses, and the second half of the year may be difficult to achieve significant increases in terms of prices or fall in space.”
Schoolrooms and the rational return of the old
After spring 2017, there was a surge in schools in beijing, with most of the well-known schools rising by more than 10 per cent even within a short period of time, with the widest circulation of just a few square metres of “mixed houses” in the western city's alley, at a unit price of nearly $300,000. At that time, there was a cynicism that a unit price of less than $120,000 per square metre could not be considered a school block。
Today, more than four months have passed since beijing began its most tightly regulated history of “3/17”, and the data show that the average price of second-hand rooms in beijing was $51,299 per square metre in july, a 16 per cent decline compared to $6,1326 per square metre at the highest point in march, which has largely fallen to the level before last year’s “9. 30” policy. The sharpest drop in prices was in the school district, which had been the hardest hit before。
On 23 march this year, the beijing city housing commission convened a group interview with the heads of the 10 beijing city intermediaries, including chainers, who made it clear that the agency and its personnel would not be allowed to engage in house demolitions, including the sale of skyscrapers and school districts。
In april, the beijing municipal education commission's opinion on access to compulsory education in 2017 set out the principle of “multi-coaching film”, which means that even if one of the school's “corresponding” wards was purchased, it could be sent to a nearby ordinary school. The aim is to enable parents to lower their expectations of buying a school block to get to a hot school and to avoid excessive speculation。
The journalists came to the huangzhou district in central guan village, which was built in the mid-1980s with a small school space in central guan village, so housing prices remained high for years, with the highest unit prices in some households at the beginning of the year exceeding 150,000 yuan, with prices falling steadily in recent months, and the average price was less than 120,000 yuan。
“this subdistrict is typical of a `fast-up', but because it is a small school district in central guan village, it is not currently affected by multi-branding, and it will certainly be able to go to central guan village a small one.” according to the manager of the store, since may, the store has been engaged in five sets of small shops, with the lowest offer currently being a set of 6. 5 million won, which is expected to cost 6 million。
“most of the owners of the sale were for an improvement, and the price of $6 million was a 50-square-metre old house in the huangzhou district.” in his view, some 30 per cent of the current owners were in a hurry to change their homes as soon as possible, and were concerned that the school district would be subject to further policy adjustments and would be difficult to do in the future。
“the price of second-hand houses is not transparent and there are many cases of high prices, which do not represent market prices.” according to zhang daewei, the chief analyst of china's real estate, “the price of the housing in the school district is currently falling, mostly by far, with fewer prices actually being negotiated, and the offer does not represent a negotiated price. However, due to the sharp drop of 60% in the turnover, the length of the transaction cycle has clearly increased, and the market chain in beijing is very high. Therefore, the lower prices will be more pronounced in the housing stock, which the replacement clients will have to process at lower prices in order to continue buying.”
It's gonna be steady
According to the data of the institute of market studies of my group, in the first half of 2017 there were 25. 9 per cent, 52. 8 per cent and 21. 3 per cent of second-hand residential transactions in beijing, 2 per cent and 0. 7 per cent respectively. Overall, the situation of just over half the two rooms remains unchanged. In terms of price, in the first half of the year the unit price for two rooms was 1. 1 per cent higher than that for three or more households and 4. 5 per cent higher for one room than for two。
Of these, up to 60 square metres, 60~90 square metres, 90~140 square metres, 140~200 square metres and more than 200 square metres each accounted for 36. 9 per cent, 37. 1 per cent, 20. 0 per cent, 4. 7 per cent and 1. 3 per cent. It can be seen that less than 60 square metres and 60-90 square metres of second-hand residential transactions accounted for an absolute majority in the first half of the year。
In the early years of real estate development in beijing, houses of up to 90 square metres were the main market, providing a sufficient supply of small and medium-sized housing, and the main source of second-hand housing. In addition, the average home-buying family, which currently has higher housing prices in beijing and has a relatively limited financial power over more, is the first to grow and the first to upgrade, with lower total prices for small and medium-sized households being the preferred option. “the development of earlier commercial dwellings, although small in size, is usually located closer to the city centre, with better facilities such as transport, education, medical care, etc., resulting in relatively high house prices and a small drop.”
“housing sources of up to 90 square metres remain high.” the sharp leap indicates, “however, traffic space is critical for just-required buildings, that is, potential value-added space is a consideration.”
He also endorsed the statement that just needed a building would keep prices strong. “the data show that the sub-replacement has a relatively strong price in this rotation control and has a small return rate. However, the overall decline in market prices may stimulate entry into the market and, together with the fact that pure demand is less affected by regulation, the second-hand demand is either a trade-off or growth, price or stability in the second half of the year.”
