Economic reporter lisa beijing of the 21st century reported that, according to reports from jiangsu provincial agricultural rural office, on june 11, jiangsu province, the programme for the implementation of the regulatory plan for the production of pigs in jiangsu province (amended in 2024) was published, clarifying that the province-wide target for the regulation of production capacity remained unchanged, with a normal stock of 1. 2 million females and pigs, with appropriate easing of control areas and further optimization of control measures for the production of pigs。
Since the beginning of the year, the price of raw pigs has surged and has accelerated in the recent past. According to the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, the average price of pigs in the country increased by three weeks at the beginning of the third week of may and by 16. 70 yuan/kg in the fifth week of may, an increase of 6. 7 per cent over the previous week and 15. 3 per cent over the same period. In june, the price of pigs continued to grow, and institutional data show that the average price of pigs born in the country was $19. 04 per kilogram on 11 june, an increase of approximately 27 per cent over the 51 holidays。
At the same time, prices for pigs and pigs continued to rise in the previous may. According to ministry of agriculture and rural affairs data, the price of pigs began to rise in the third week of january 2024, after which, in less than five months, the national average price of pigs rose from 22. 75 to 40. 46 yuan, an increase of nearly 78 per cent. In the fifth week of may, prices for pigs rose in 29 monitored provinces throughout the country. North china has higher prices at 42. 95 yuan/kg; south-west china has lower prices at 33. 71 yuan/kg。
In the view of the interviewees, the decrease in the availability of female pigs is a common factor affecting the price of raw pigs and pigs. There is currently a decrease in the number of pigs born out of the field, a high feeling of second fertility among farmers and higher prices for pigs. In addition, the increase in the price of pigs is influenced by cyclical factors, and farmers expect better prices for pigs in later periods, as well as by the incentive to supplement them。
The price of pigs in the year is nearly 80%
In march 2024, the ministry of agriculture and rural development issued the implementation programme for the management of productive fertilizers (revised in 2024), which adjusted the national target for the normal retention of able-bodied pigs from 41 million to 39 million, and the lower limit for the normal fluctuations in the pool (green areas) from 95 per cent to 92 per cent of normal holdings。
In 2023, 7,262,000 pigs were produced in the country, an increase of 3. 8 per cent over the previous year and 5,794,000 tons of pork production, the highest level in recent years. The availability of the sow column is a key factor influencing the supply of piglets and raw pigs and an important focus on optimizing the regulation of the production capacity of the pig。
Wind monitors the data of the ministry of agriculture and rural development and finds that the number of female pigs in the country has declined monthly since 2023. At the end of april, there were 3,986 thousand female pigs in the country, a decrease of 0. 1 per cent in the ring and 6. 9 per cent in the same year. Thus, the expert analysis concluded that the reduction of national pig production capacity was largely in place。
Reductions in the availability of female pigs directly affect their supply. “it will take about six months to get out of the field, so the impact on pigs of the fall in the number of pigs can be realized.” shang chao, a researcher for futures and pigs, said to economic reporters for the 21st century。
Data from the ministry of agriculture and rural development show that the price of pigs has been rising steadily since the third week of january, and by the fifth week of may it had risen by almost 78 per cent to 40. 46 yuan/kg。
Scrumptious indicates that the pre-market fertilization of the she-poar fence is evident, leading to a decrease in the supply of pigs this year. At the same time, the price of pigs continued to shock after the spring festival, and it was widely accepted by farmers that the cycle of increases in the price of pigs had begun, that it was expected to be better for the post-market price of pigs and that it was an incentive for the farm to increase the capacity to supplement the price of pigs. She added, however, that pig prices were directly related to farmer profits but did not have a direct impact on the pig cycle。
Wang yao, the zhuiqiang information and piggy analyst, further indicated to economic reporters in the twenty-first century that, in addition to the number of female pigs that can be grown, both the motivational nature of the pig's supplement and the price of the pig's price are more relevant to the expectations of the farmers for the future, and that the increase in the price of the baby pig at the beginning of the year differed from the reasons for the recent increase in the price of the pig's pig。
In the first and second weeks of this year, the average national pig price was 22. 85 and 22. 75 per kg respectively, which was lower in the year. Wang yao indicated that the cost of buying pigs was lower at that time, that the farmers were optimistic about the second half of the year, that the supplement was more positive and that it contributed to higher prices。
Wang yao also stated that while the price of pigs was higher today, the price of pigs was higher, the profits of farming were higher, the farmers were able to look after the market, and the pigs were able to enter the field in winter and around the end of the year in order to catch up with the full year of pork consumption。
The price of pigs has been rising rapidly lately
In the area of pigs, the price of raw pigs went up in may of this year, and the average national price for raw pigs rose by three weeks, starting in the third week of may. According to the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, during the fifth week of may, the national average price of pigs was 16. 70 yuan/kg, an increase of 6. 7 per cent over the previous week, an increase of 15. 3 per cent over the same period and a rise in prices during the year。
In june, the price of pigs continued to rise. The data on the surge consultation show that on 11 june, the average price for pigs was $19. 04 per kg, an increase of approximately 27 per cent over the 5-1 leave。
The overall situation is in the light of the season of pork consumption, and according to the respondents, the decrease in the supply of raw pigs is the main factor driving the price increase for the current round。
The reduction in the number of femininable pigs in the column mentioned above is a major factor influencing the decrease in the number of pigs out of the column. “from the change in the number of able-growing pigs to the change in the number of produced pigs, it takes about 10 months to get feedback.” wang yao said。
Based on the results of the production of pigs and market visits published by the relevant listed companies, schanay found that the production of pigs this year was generally stable compared to last year, which means that the number of pigs born dropped this year or was decomposed to the extent of the quantity available. The decomposition of the pre-surgent shea pigs has proved to be effective, and the subsequent production of pigs can be reduced, laying a solid foundation for the price increase for the current round。
“when the pig price went up again, the profit of weight gain was quickly opened up, and market sentiment followed, and the farm began a new round of weighting and second fertility”. According to scrumptious, the bulk of the pigs currently scheduled to be out of the open house was raised from 120 to 130 kg to 130 to 150 kg, which resulted in some of the pigs who had already outweighted (i. E. 120 kg) being moved out of the field for a period of one to three months, reducing the current number of pigs out of the field to help push the pig price up。
At the same time, schangay learned that in some areas, the number of second-fertilization rodent pigs was around 20-30 per cent (for reference purposes only, the sample was small or significantly different from the overall situation), further widening the supply and demand gap, resulting in a rapid rise in pig prices。
According to wang yao, the increase in second fertility among farmers or the greatest factor affecting the price of pigs in the near future. Wang yao recalled that, due to the abundance of pigs in the south as a whole, there would be a certain skirmishing effect on the north, with a forecast of pig prices or high-level shocks in may at the end of april, and a small drop in the middle and later part of the year. However, the increase in pig prices in may also led to a rise in second fertility among small and medium-sized households, with second fertility beginning in mid-may in the north-east, and a high level of enthusiasm for second fertility in hebei and shandong。
Wang yao has noted that the current increase in secondary fertility, in addition to the emotional effects of the market, is due to an objective reason: last year, there was a high rate of fertility in the northern diaspora and small and medium-sized households, with a high number of vacant areas and conditions for secondary fertility. This, together with longer pig farming cycles, increases market risk and short-term second-generation fertility becomes an option for many farmers。
“this round of second-generation fertilizers from may to the present, with 90-125 kg of pigs mainly added.” wang yao said that this would divert parts of the slaughterhouse from the pigs, reduce the market supply of the pigs and, on the other hand, lead to an increase in the butcher pig price。
The price of pigs has risen, the cost of stacked feed has fallen, and profits from farming have improved rapidly in the recent past。
“it is true that the vast majority of profits have increased in recent months or so, and have increased significantly.” wang yao calculated that the profit of raising pigs at the end of april was approximately $80 per head and that, by 11 june, the profit had risen to $638. 90 per head, with the result that farm profits had accumulated an increase of $558. 39 per head, or 69. 58 per cent. Experience has shown that profits from pig farming are now relatively high。
The price of pigs is still rising, and the price of pigs is already high, but there is still a significant proportion of farmers who have chosen to supplement it in the hope of capturing the possibility of a season before spring。
In response, scrumptious believes that the rise in the price of pigs and pigs is a double-edged sword for farming purposes. For companies selling pigs, the increase in the price of pigs has raised their profitability; for out-of-pocket fatters, the increase in the price of pigs has significantly raised their cost of fertilizer, and the cost of purchasing pig fat to pig outbounds at current prices is in the vicinity of $16/kg, significantly higher than the cost of self-care of about $12. 5-14. 5/kg。
From the time between the production of the pig and the production of the pig, scrumptue believes that it is difficult for the pig purchased after july to be out of the field before the spring festival, so that the farmer will then be active or less active and the price of the pig will continue to rise or be difficult to sustain。
Looking at post-market pig prices, scrumptue believes that, in terms of current fundamentals, there is already a certain bubble in the price of raw pigs, but in terms of the high levels of support for basics throughout the year, the price of pigs remains relatively reasonable, and the price of post-market pigs evolves, depending on how the culture adjusts the rhythm of the bar。
“if the farmer were to lose weight in a wave in june and july, the post-market pig price would be expected to reach a new peak in the year, otherwise the basics would be hard to support a further sharp rise in the price of pig。
In wang yao's view, the previous second-generation diet was relatively weak in terms of impact on behavioral behaviour, but there is still some pressure on the capacity, which will be released in july at the latest, leaving room for pigmaking or high-level backsliding in july, and in august-september. In the fourth quarter, there was either a supply or a slight increase in the number of pigs on the ground。
The price of raw pigs has increased and the price of pork has increased accordingly. Wind data show that, starting in late may, the national average wholesale price of pork increased rapidly, rising to $24. 6 per kilogram on 11 june, up nearly 19 per cent from 20 may and above 21 per cent from the beginning of the year。
The price of pork was one of the factors affecting the consumer price of the population, and in april the price of pork rose by 1. 4 per cent, affecting the cpi by about 0. 02 percentage points。
The cpi data will be released shortly in may. Moohua zhou, a macro researcher in the financial markets department of grand bank, stated to economic reporters for the twenty-first century that the recent overall recovery in pork prices had helped to improve consumer price performance, but that, given the moderate increase in pork prices and the abundance of other supplies, such as cattle and sheep, fruit and vegetables, and industrial goods, the increase in pork prices had a limited impact on may prices。
Looking to the future, zhou maohua, as a whole, believes that the impact of pork prices on prices will shift to a moderate contribution, as a result of the delayed impact of the dechemicalization of pig production and the rebound in market demand。
