Since april, the situation in the united states and iraq has been raging, and the fed’s interest rate reduction is expected to change again. The price of gold is convulsing at $4700-4800 per ounce and is in a dilemma。
Can the gold go up? When is the phase adjustment? This issue has become the focus of market attention。
The world gold association, asia pacific (except india), research director and deputy director of industry expansion in the china region, jashu sun, believes that the risk avoidance properties of gold have not weakened。
“it is true that the start of the 2026 season, with all kinds of news swaying the fed's interest rate reduction expectations, caused investors to adjust their positions in the gold market quickly and triggered a significant increase in price volatility. However, our research shows that volatility is characterized by a return to average values, and that when historically such volatility has risen significantly, it tends to return relatively quickly to normal levels, and the rate of gold volatility has remained low for most of the time。
He further noted that the correlation between gold and other risk assets, such as equities, remained at a steady low level, in contrast to the significant rise in equity debt correlations caused by inflation concerns in recent years. The global gold market has shown sufficient liquidity even if gold was once sold for emergency liquidity because of its relatively good performance in the preceding period。
World gold association data show that global gold markets (including off-site transactions, exchanges and etfs) averaged $52. 47 billion a day in march this year, well above the level of $361. 2 billion in 2025。
Information diagram. News agency of china
What's the next price
According to jasumi, gold prices are not a unilateral trend, and movements in different macro-level environments tend to become significantly polarized. In terms of gold performance since this year, geo-risks, interest rate policy path expectations of major central banks, dollar trends, and structural underpinnings remain variables of continuing concern。
It is noteworthy that, since this year, repeated inflation expectations have led to uncertainty among investors about the prospect of a reduction in interest rates for major central banks, which has become an important factor influencing gold prices。
The most recent data released by the world gold association on official global gold reserves up to the end of march 2026 suggest that the global central bank as a whole continues the trend of gold allocation. Of these, the central bank of china has been holding gold for 17 consecutive months, with gold reserves at the end of march amounting to 74. 38 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces (approximately 4. 98 tons) over the end of february, the sixth highest in the world。
In response to concerns raised by the recent reduction in gold by some central banks, jassau indicated that it was mainly tactical adjustment or liquidity management, with precedents for several rounds of market pressure in 2020 and 2023。
He noted that the central bank’s grand logic of buying gold has not changed – the constant tendency to spread out to off-dollar assets, the rise in geopolitical uncertainty, and the long-term demand for reserve security and diversification are still driving the central bank’s use of gold as one of the core reserve assets – and these are important drivers of central banks’ purchases over the past few years。
“if the united states dollar's credit crack is further widened, geo-risks remain high and gold is favoured by more central banks as a `geo-politically neutral' asset, there will be further scope for central bank demand in 2026.” according to jasutsu, “it is also necessary to see that continued large increases in gold prices may slow down central bank purchases due to cost problems and may also end with short-term, tactical gains”
