March 17th rewind of non-ferrous metals: tin nickel collars with weak copper and weak aluminium, continued fragmentation, followed by fed resolution
On 17 march, non-ferrous metals continued to rise and fall in fragmentation patterns, with a rise in cylindrical and nickel collars, a strong copper concussion and a weak aluminum and zinc bearings; the internal and external weaknesses were evident, with most of the lme basic metals rising, and a dramatic rise of 2. 4 per cent in the night palsy discs. The macro-level united states dollar shock is weak, the march federal reserve conference is approaching, supply-side copper tin nickel is well balanced, aluminum zinc is under stress, and net financial flows to tin nickel are significant. Overall, short-term shocks dominated, structural opportunities centred on copper tin nickel and aluminum zinc dominated by vision, focusing on the guidelines for interest rate paths set out in the 19 federal reserve policy statement。
I. All-weather landscape: significant diversity and bright spots of tin nickel
Core internal inventory futures data (as in the previous period)
Varieties, fare ($/tonne) increases, drops, trades (billions of yuan)
Copper 99340 - 0. 27% 870. 5 99260 - 100530
Aluminium 24860 - 0. 48% 153. 2 million 380. 2 24750-25100
Tin 286800 + 2. 1% 48. 5 million 128. 54 280500-288,500
Nickel 137150 + 0. 55
Zinc 23794 - 0. 46% 917 000 218. 7 23650 - 24100
Lead +0. 7%
2. Outer disk lme core data
Varieties collection price ($/t) increase or decrease inventory (t) change in stock
Copper 12880 + 0. 61% 330375 + 18775
Aluminium 3380 + 0. 47% 440325-2500
Lenzi 48250 + 2. 55% 8015-10
Lonnie 17520 + 0. 37% 287088-330
Lennox 3280 - 0. 21% 98950 + 4150
3. Colored block a
The cpvi (000819) reports 10167. 74 points, 1. 80 per cent, with a turnover of $78,537 million and a change of hands rate of 2. 17 per cent. The shares show a pattern of absconding cassiterite, weakness of aluminium zinc, a decline of less than 1 per cent in tin and loyon molybdenum and a drop of more than 2 per cent in cloud aluminium and zinc。
Ii. Analysis of the core drivers: macro+supply and demand + funding three-end resonance
1. Macro level: weak dollar + near fed resolution
• the weakening of the united states dollar index shock, near 99. 5 per cent, which broke the 100-point threshold, eased the pressure on large commodity prices in dollar terms and supported copper tin nickel, etc。
• at the 18-19 march united states federal reserve conference on interest rates, the market bets remained at 99. 4 per cent, with the first interest rate reduction expected to be postponed until june or even september, and the language in the market focus statement on inflation and interest rate paths, with the prospect of boosting the doves if they were biased against hawks or suppressed metal prices。
• the geographical situation in the middle east has subsided, with the expected restoration of navigation in the strait of hormuz, the cooling of exposure and the return of the metal premium, but there is still a supply disturbance of aluminium。
2. Supply-demand end: structural fragmentation is evident
• copper: supply of q1 copper increased by only 0. 8 per cent over the same period, strikes in chile, the effects of mines in indonesia continued, and the country's copper concentrate tc index fell to $57. 28/dry ton, with high smelting costs; demand for new energy vehicles and grid-building was supported by large increases in, but still relatively low, stocks of lmes and tight demand balances。
• aluminium: while the cost end is supported, guinea's capacity-regulated and base-burning price increases are higher, high aluminium prices inhibit downstream materials, packaging demand and the recovery of domestic real estate is less than expected; the supply side is relatively stable, the lme stock is continuously debilitated and supply and demand are less balanced。
• tin: global production of the second-largest tin mine has ceased and the recovery of tin mine production in myanmar has been delayed, with only 385 tons of low-level global stocks supporting strong, stable demand in the electronics and welding sectors and significant net financial inflows。
• nickel: the projected downward revision of the nickel mine quota in indonesia is dominated by an increase in demand for new energy batteries, supported by significant costs; lme stock is low, write-off warehouse receipts account for 7. 11 per cent and demand is tight。
• zinc: low-than-anticipated recovery in domestic real estate demand, high sulphuric acid prices, resulting in increased supply pressure resulting from the release of capacity from smelters; a significant increase in lme stocks and the continuation of a pattern of easing supply and demand。
3. Financial flows: tin nickel favoured and aluminum zinc outflows
• tin: $12,854 million in turnover, net inflows of $428 million and an increase of 1,892 hands in holding capacity to raise the core of the plate。
• nickel: with a turnover of 8,536 million yuan, net inflows of 205 million yuan, second only to tin。
• aluminium, zinc: net outflow of funds of 180 million yuan and 120 million yuan yuan respectively, reduced holding capacity and cautious market sentiment。
Iii. Depth of split varieties: strong and weak, clear logic
Copper: the shock is strong and the increase in stocks does not alter the balance
• day-to-day movement: the morning rolls up to 100530 yuan/tonne and then backslides, with the tailings collecting $99340/tonne - 0. 27 per cent, showing a high fall and shock bias pattern。
• core logic: while the price of the copper mine is supported by tight supply, the weakening of the united states dollar provides breathing space, the lme stock is significantly increased by 18775 tons, with short-term suppression of the increase; new energy demand and macro-projected games are at a price of 99,000-100,000 yuan/tonne。
• critical position: support 99,000-99,200 yuan/tonne, pressure 100,000-100,500 yuan/tonne, exceeding 101,000 yuan/tonne to open the upper space。
Aluminium: weak pressure, weak demand constraints rebound
• day-to-day movements: 24,750-25100 yuan/tonne round-the-clock fluctuations, 24860 yuan/tonne tailings, -0. 48 per cent to sustain a vulnerable shock。
• core logic: limited cost-side support, high aluminum prices inhibiting downstream consumption, poor property recovery leading to weak demand; lme stock continuously debilitated but sufficient domestic supply, and a weak supply-demand balance was not able to support price increases。
• critical position: 24,700-24800 yuan/tonne sustained, down 24,500 yuan/tonne torn, pressure of 25100-25200 yuan/tonne, difficult to achieve。
Xinxiang: strong leadership, low inventory core support
• all-day movement: early-discussion, after noon, at $286,000-287,000/tonne, and tailings at $286,800/tonne, plus 2. 10 per cent, to raise basic metals。
• core logic: a global supply shortage of tin mines, with only 385 tons of stocks at historically low levels and a stable demand for electronic welds; a large inflow of funds, high levels of emotion and short-term sustainability。
• critical location: 285,000-286,000 yuan/tonne sustained, 288,000-290,000 yuan/tonne under pressure, constant supply-demand balance pattern in the medium term and more resilient prices。
Nickel: smuggled shock, supported by indonesian policy
• day-to-day movement: fluctuations around $136,000-138,500 yuan/tonne, with a tailpad of $137,150/tonne, plus 0. 55 per cent, continuing the polar shock pattern。
• core logic: a downward revision of indonesia's nickel ore quota is expected to intensify, demand for new energy batteries continues to grow and costs support are evident; lme stocks are low, write-off warehouse receipts are high, and demand and supply-side constraints remain unchanged。
• critical position: support 136,000-136,500 yuan/tonne, pressure 138,000-139,000 yuan/tonne, short-term upward trend constant。
Zinc: depressive shock and increased supply pressure
• a full-day movement of $23650-24100/tonne, round-the-clock fluctuations of $23794/tonne on tailings -- 0. 46 per cent, which perpetuates the pattern of vulnerability shocks。
• core logic: domestic smelters released capacity, increased supply pressure and less than expected recovery in real estate demand; lme stocks increased significantly by 4150 tons, demand and supply relaxed and prices rebounded sharply。
• critical position: sustains 23,600-23,700 yuan/tonne, drops down to 23,500 yuan/tonne, presses 24100-24200 yuan/tonne, mainly on sight。
Iv. Post-market perspectives and operational recommendations
1. Post-market outlook
• short-term (1-3 trading days): seismic fragmentation, pre-federal reserve resolution cautious market sentiment, supply and demand support for copper tin nickel, and continued weakness of aluminium zinc. If the resolution is followed by a dove, the metal is expected to go up in its entirety; if it is hawk, or if it triggers a echo。
• medium term (one month): the logic of the structural cattle market remains unchanged, and the tight supply and demand balance pattern of copper tin has continued, benefiting from new energy demand; aluminum zinc is focused on the signs of property recovery and supply contraction and is still on track。
• risk tips: the fed over-anticipated eagles, lower-than-anticipated domestic demand, an escalation in geo-situation, and a significant rebound in the united states dollar。
2. Operational recommendations
• short-term transactions:
Copper tin nickel: move back to low-sortage in support slots, 99,000 yuan/tonne below copper cut-off, 285,000 yuan/tonne below tin cut-off, 136,000 yuan/tonne below nickel cut-off, target view of daily pressure position。
Aluminium zinc: aluminum-based vision, not blind copying, waiting for a clear and steady signal。
• middle-line layout:
Copper: low layout, 1-2 months in stock, target $105,000/ton, loss of $98,000/ton。
Tin: mainly held, supply and demand are carefully balanced to support prices, with a target of $0. 3 million per ton and a loss of $280,000 per ton。
Aluminium zinc: watching for the time being, focusing on property policy and the signal of reduction in smelters。
• wind control features: strict containment of damage, control of warehouse space, no more than 30 per cent for single varieties, avoidance of high levels, attention to key indicators such as the federal reserve resolution, lme inventories, united states dollar indices, etc。
V. Focus tomorrow
1. Statement of the march us federal reserve conference (2 a. M. Beijing time) focusing on interest rate resolutions, dot-line maps, inflation expectations and powell's speech。
2. Changes in stocks of nickel and zinc in lme copper, ready-made smm data from shanghai colour network。
3. Domestic evening macroeconomic data, if any, and industry news (e. G., smelter reduction, mine disturbance)。
Note: the above roundup is based on market data prior to 2100 march 17, and the night drive may be affected by sudden news, investments are at risk and entry needs to be prudent and this does not constitute an investment proposal。
Headline creation camp
