This year marks the beginning of the “fifty-fifty-fifty”, and the upcoming two national conferences in 2026 will be a source of widespread concern. What's the hotspot for the national two this year? What important deployments will be made in the year of the beginning? In recent days, the economics reference journalist has interviewed a wide range of practitioners, and through the five “keywords” he has read the views and hot spots of this year's national congress, which are closely linked to the economic sphere。
One of the key words
Fifteen five
The year 2026 marks the beginning of the “fifty-five” and this year the draft “fifty-five” planning framework will be reviewed during the two national conferences. How to move the 15th five-five forward is the focus of attention。
The “fifty-five” period was a critical period for the fundamental modernization of socialism to be solid and comprehensive. The chief economist and director of the research institute, roh zhixin, stated that the degree of economic development during the “fifty-fifth five” period had a direct impact on the achievement of “GDP per capita at the level of middle-income developed countries” in 2035, which was also a period of profound change in the international political and economic landscape. At the heart of economic development was the demand side's adherence to domestic demand and the supply side's commitment to the deeper integration of sti and industrial innovation, while at the same time focusing on risk mitigation and internal certainty in responding to external uncertainties。
Ro zhixin stated that the promotion of the “fifty-fifty five” would lead to a good start and that china's potential for economic growth would be fully realized through a combination of reforms and counter-cyclical adjustments, starting with four dimensions: the promotion of a balance between supply and demand, the acceleration of the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the enhancement of the use of factors of production and the promotion of micro-motivation。
It is worth noting that the “fifty-five” plan proposes to place “building modern industrial systems and consolidating the foundations of the real economy” at the top of the strategic mandate. Wang zhiqin, vice-president of china's institute of information and communication, believes that the crucial window period of the “fifty-five” has reached, and that it is necessary to build on the country's national science to plan and work together. The pre-vision of the forward-looking system will be guided, driven by forward-looking technological breakthroughs, dominated by business, integration of innovative elements and forward-looking governance。
Keyword ii
Positive
At a meeting of the central political bureau of the chinese communist party on 27 february, it was stated that “a more active macro-policy is being implemented”. It was emphasized that “a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderate easing of monetary policy should be continued and the synergy between reform initiatives and macro-policies enhanced”. How this year's macro-policies reflect “positiveness” is expected to be an important topic for both national assemblies。
In terms of fiscal policy, zhao wei, the chief economist of shin manghong securities, believes that the fiscal deficit, total debt and total expenditure are expected to remain necessary in 2026. At the same time, great importance is attached to the synergy between fiscal policy and financial policy, optimizing the allocation of resources through “re-loans + fiscal discounts” and letters of guarantee increases, effectively reducing the financing costs of various players and stimulating private investment。
From the standpoint of monetary policy, yuan haixia, president of the chinese international research institute for integrity, stated that monetary policy would continue the moderate easing tone, focusing more on precision. “in january of this year, there was a full structural interest rate reduction, and in the course of the year there were opportunities for a reduction in interest rates, a (directed) reduction, and the use of structural instruments was further intensified.” she said that structural monetary policy instruments remained the focus and follow-up would continue to increase support for the focus areas of consumption, science and technology, green and old age。
Promoting consumption will also be an important focus of macro-policy development. According to the deutsche bank’s chief economist for the greater central china region, boosting consumption remains the top priority for macroeconomic policy this year, and stimulating the consumption potential of services will be the top priority. The consumption potential of our population in the areas of leisure, tourism, health, old age and so forth is expected to be fully released through a combination of policies to overcome supply constraints in various services, enrich and upgrade consumption scenes and improve the leave system to increase the leisure time of the population。
Keywords ter
For the first time last year, investing in people was included in the government's report on its work. The “fifty-five” planning proposal proposes “a strong link between people's livelihoods and consumption, investment in goods and investment in people” “to strengthen human resources development and comprehensive human development investment”. At the central economic work conference held at the end of last year, it was also important to “must insist on a close link between investment in goods and investment in people”。
Industry believes that the promotion of “visibility” for investment will be a key element of governance this year and will be one of the main points of discussion for the commission during the two sessions this year。
Investment in “visibility” is more “visibility” as evidenced by the fact that the ultimate in-kind workload of investment will be crucial to improving people's lives. The researcher at the national information centre of the national development and reform commission, wei kijia, believes that three factors require a high level of attention in moving forward on the ground. The first is the structure of government fiscal spending. While spending “total” is largely constant, the expenditure structure is optimized, with a focus and direction in the field of livelihood. The second is forward-looking planning. Many matters in the field of livelihood are closely linked to cyclical factors and require both a current and a long-term perspective. The third is to invest in inclusive, basic and backward livelihood。
The director of the china (hainan) institute for reform and development stated that comprehensive “investment in people” and comprehensive safeguards and improvements in people's lives required both investment and strategic decision-making. In his view, the initial equalization of basic health care between urban and rural areas, the universal introduction of compulsory secondary education, the improvement of the system of support for childbirth and the establishment of a maternity allowance were all priorities for investment。
Keywords 4
From “one-key generation” of personalized new spring birthday videos to human robots becoming “all-power actors” on spring and evening stage, artificial intelligence is again “screening” this spring, showing technological advances from “talking” to “doing” and opening up vast prospects for intelligent economic development。
The state council's opinion on the in-depth implementation of artificial intelligence plus, published last year, states that “by 2027, leading to a wide and deep integration of artificial intelligence with the six main areas of focus, the penetration of new generation smart terminals, intelligent bodies, etc. Applications, and rapid growth in the size of the core industries of the intelligent economy”。
“in terms of its own development, a new generation of artificial intelligence will bring about an increase in economic development.” the director of the future industrial research centre of the china institute for the development of the electronic information industry (cidi) phusonet said that large models and intelligent bodies were expected to lead to new business practices, and that it was expected that in the coming years, large model services, which were dominated by information services, would move further into human productive life and become a new type of service. In addition, “soft intelligence” such as digital people and smart systems are expected to bring a new experience of artificial intelligence services; “hard intelligence” such as ai automobiles and human robots are also moving from laboratory to practical applications, and human robotics are receiving attention in areas such as domestic service, industrial manufacturing, etc。
The deeper integration of artificial intelligence with a wide range of industries will allow technological variables to become industrial growth and translate landscape advantages into competitive advantages. The director of the institute of intelligence of the china institute of industrial internet research, guo wei zhu, believes that artificial intelligence should be used as a key engine for developing new quality productivity, deepening the integration of artificial intelligence plus applications, targeting manufacturing, agriculture, services and areas of focus such as livelihood services, urban governance, and expanding the scope of applications, leading to technological hierarchies, industrial upgrading and model innovation with scenes. The construction of a virtuous cycle of demand-driven supply and supply-generation ecosystems, the strengthening of integrated support such as demand-side matchmaking, project incubation and investment financing, the promotion of a deeper integration of artificial intelligence technologies with the real economy, and the upgrading of the overall intelligence of industry。
Keywords quinquies
Integrated reform of investment financing
A comprehensive reform of capital market investment finance was proposed by the central economic work conference. At the new beginning of the “fifty-five”, how to fully harness the hub function of capital markets through comprehensive investment financing reforms, good science, technology, innovation and new quality productivity development have become the focus of market attention。
The chief economist of kawafi securities, chen jian, believes that reform should be based on synergies between the two ends of investment financing to accelerate the improvement of modern capital market systems that are fully functional, efficient and transparent and open up the cycle of technological, industrial and financial excellence。
In fact, in recent years, in terms of financing, the cvm has focused on deepening the “two-branch” reforms, introducing reforms such as the creation of a science-based growth layer on the science-based board, introducing a third set of more inclusive listing criteria on the entrepreneurial board, and increasing the “scientific and technological content” of the capital market. The data also show that by the end of 2025, all types of medium- and long-term funds combined held a market value of approximately $23 trillion in share a。
“to focus on the financing end, continue to deepen registration reforms, increase market inclusiveness at multiple levels and enrich hard-tech enterprise financing instruments. Focusing on efficiency gains at the investment level, introducing long-term capital inflows such as old-age pensions and insurance, improving long-term investment mechanisms and strengthening publicly listed corporate governance and splitting mechanisms and investor protection.” the co-facilitator of the audit services market of the an yongtung china district indicated that。
