India's upcoming rainy season, 2026, is expected to see a significant expansion in cotton cultivation, underpinned by a rebound in domestic prices, improved global demand and the expectation that the el niño phenomenon could lead to insufficient monsoon rainfall. The industry is projected to increase by up to one fifth。
Atul s ganatra, former president of the indian cotton association, has made it clear that cotton seeding could increase by 20 per cent next year. The indian seed industry federation also noted that cotton cultivation was expected to grow in the northern region. Against the background of el niño predictions, cotton, as a drought-resistant crop, will be a sound choice for farmers, with a projected area of at least 11 million hectares. Cotyarn traderAnand poppat of inks added that if monsoon precipitation was normal, the area would increase by at least 10 per cent。
Climate factors are key to driving this change. The el niño phenomenon usually results in below-normal rainfall, which encourages farmers to prefer cotton to water-intensive crops such as rice. In the 2025 rainy season, cotton was reduced from 1,1297,000 hectares to 11,033 hectares as a result of crop substitution by growers for crops such as beans and maize. According to the second estimate, indian cotton production in 2025-26 was 2. 991 million bags, lower than in the previous year。
Geopolitics offers strategic opportunities for industry. The sharp rise in crude oil prices reduces the cost advantage of fibres, natural cotton or the “gold age”. However, industry stressed the need for india to break through the biotechnology policy impasse and promote technological interventions to improve industrial competitiveness and quality. At present, planting in northern areas, such as punjab, will take the lead in a few weeks。
