Starting on 20 january, successive surges in the price of bitcoin were hit hard. The latest data show that the price of the bitcoin has fluctuated over and below $30,000 in the past week, falling to a minimum of $288. 45。
Prior to that, in november 2020, bitcoin had experienced a three-month consecutive surge, surpassing its historic high of $419,400 on 8 january 2021, a ninefold increase from its lowest point of $4944 in march 2020。
This round of bitcoin, which is considered to be a “cow market”, continues into its upstream mining industry, which enters a “unattractive” situation. In the network of miners, the mineral products have long been labeled for sale, and the delivery date is set for august this year. In mine retail outlets, the price of the mine is one or two times higher than that of the official network, and the supply remains scarce. The shortage of graphic cards is further exacerbated by the re-emergence of old machines in the secondary market。
Mining can not only dig up high-value bitcoin, but also enjoy a profitable space where the value of the machines themselves can double. As a result of this shorter cycle and current interests, many of the diasporas and professional bodies entered the mining industry in this turn, while the senior miners who had experienced the “mine crash” caused by the crash of bitcoin at the end of 17 called themselves “coins of beetles” and advised that they should not buy them now。
The price of the new mine is double and still short of demand
The term “mining” refers to a series of calculations using a bitcoin mine (the real thing is a computer) that allows successful operators to obtain a system-rewarded bitcoin。
The cost of mining is mainly due to the cost of machines and electricity, with the output yielding bitcoin. When the value of bitcoin increases, it means that the smaller the cost of mining, the higher the rate of return. As a result, price fluctuations in bitcoin will directly affect the mining industry。
Since november 2020, the price of bitcoin has skyrocketed from around $10,000 to $20,000 on 16 december, $30,000 on 2 january and $40,000 on 8 january, with a maximum price of $41887. 8, nearly 10 times higher than the peak and $4944 at its lowest point in 14 march。
As the round surged in bitcoin, the mining machine market became hot and hot. The mining company bitcontinental network, the associated bitcoin machines, have been shown to be out of stock and the shipment date is august 2021。
Source: bitcontinental official network
The bitcontinental side has indicated to the interface news that the machine is now generally sold faster, and that it is now in good shape, largely productive, so that it can be sold out. Another mine manufacturer, kanan tech, stated that its company had received a large number of advance sales orders in the third quarter of 2020 and had continued the momentum of advance sales in the fourth quarter, with the delivery of advance sales orders scheduled for the second quarter of the year。
In the retail channels of the mine, the mine is sold twice as much as one to two times as the official network. In the case of the bitcontinental ant miner s19 95t, the offer provided by multiple mine retailers to interface journalists indicated that the network sold machines with a value of $20340 at a retail market price of around $45,000, more than double the price。
In march 2020, ceo mints at wonderland recalled that the future price of ant s19 was only around $13,000, and the current price was about 15,800, but with the november bitcoin boom, prices could even be sold to 53,000 yuan in january 2021, a four to fivefold difference。
Even at this price, a second-hand mine retailer claims that he has less than a hundred pieces of stock at his disposal, that there are a very large number of people to consult and make deals, and that the prices change daily。
The main operation of the wondrous mining site consists mainly of the hosting of the mine and the holding and computing of the mine. The company ceo mint said to the interface journalists that it regretted most this year that fewer machines were being stored, that she had decided to add machines by november, but that it had been delayed by the run-down of electricity prices, and that the price of bitcoin had not been expected to fly very soon, and that it was now almost impossible。
The old machine is alive, the card is short
Not only did this round run in bitcoin, but the new machine model was very tight because of increased revenues, some of the old machine-type and graphic-card mining equipment that could not cover costs in the past were also “restored” and entered the second-hand trading market。
In the case of ants9, introduced by the mining company bitland in 2016, industry sources told the interface that at the time of the launch, the ants9 had been called the “royal king” and each one had been fired up to 20,000. Since then, with the increased computing power of bitcoin and the increasing difficulty of mining, the benefits of s9 have hardly been able to cover the costs, especially since the old machine price fell sharply after its third halving in 2020。
In march 2020, when bitcoin prices were down, many miners threw s9 with power, at a price of only $130-140. But now in the second-hand trading market, the price of ant s9 has soared to $500, more than tripled。
And with the rise in the price of bitcoin, even s9 can now have good returns. On-line data from the encrypted digital currency pond f2pool fish pool show that, as at 22 january 2021, the daily value of the ant s9 mine was $17. 72 per hour, and the daily electricity cost was $10. 09 and the net daily gain was $7. 62 per degree. Even at the current rate of $500, the return cycle for the purchase of an ant s9 mine was approximately 65 days, without taking into account the effects of other factors。
The ceo's mint at wonder mine tells the interface that not only the machine itself, but also the spare parts of s9, such as fan, power, control boards, etc., have gone up, even the machine repair workers are not available on the market and have been taken away from the mine, and the group has not been able to find stable jobs for months. Now s9 can dig around $7-10 a day, and it's already very good for this type of machine. If bitcoin continues to rise, it will be difficult for s9 to exit the historic stage。
Source: wonder mine
In addition, industry sources have revealed that the current graphic cards are “hard to buy”, that the rtx 30 series and the rx 6000 series of high-end cards are almost impossible to find and that the medium- and low-end graphic cards are difficult to find. The securities times, citing the owner of the wah jianxi shop, stated that, in addition to the supplier's lack of capacity, bulk purchases by miners were also important reasons for the lack of graphic cards。
The demand for graphic cards in the mining industry stems mainly from two factors: the fact that, in december 2020, 4g mines in taifung were phased out and miners were required to upgrade them to 8g and at least 6-8 cards were required for one mine; the fact that, with the price of bitcoin rising, while more apic chips were used in mining equipment, it was still possible to dig for bitcoins; and the fact that, since bitcoin prices were the windfall of all encrypted currencies, the surge in bitcoin also played a catalytic role in other encrypted currencies, such as taifung prices, and the natural increase in demand for cards that were used mainly to dig for asc coins。
The shortage of graphic cards can be seen in the price increases of manufacturers. Since january, it has been announced publicly that the company's graphic cards, including the rx6000 and rtx 30 series, will increase prices across the line by nearly 20 per cent。
In addition, while sotet did not make a public statement, its rtx 30-series graphic card offer had been increased at least twice, with the largest increase of rtx 3090 rising by 23 per cent before the section. Evga, for its part, issued a circular on the official network stating that for a number of reasons it had decided to adjust the price of the rtx 30 series of graphic cards, effective 11 january, with an increase of approximately $70。
New miners and institutional entry
Ceo mint analysis at wonder mine, since november, not only has its mine grown in volume, but there has also been a marked change in order clients — more institutions with large funds have begun to enter。
Mint claims that the previous investments by individual clients in their own mines were essentially 50-200 machines, while now these large-funded companies are basically set up in thousands, with the largest number reaching 5,000。
She explained that many listed companies would wish to invest in bitcoin because of the need for asset allocation, but that under current legal and regulatory restrictions, it was impossible to buy money directly, and the purchase of mining machines was another way back。
In addition to large institutions, more new miners are entering. The miner who runs a mine in the fountain told the interface journalists that most of the new arrivals to his mine have been new miners since that time。
In the three months of the boom in bitcoin, the mining ring owner murphy, with 60,000 fans, said that his fans had jumped by 20,000, and that he was consulted every day by 20 or 30 “unknown” newcomers about the mining of bitcoin, and many did not even know what the block chains were and how the mining mechanism was making money。
Interfacing news analysis by industry sources indicates that the current influx generally captures current gains and expected returns to the current cycle. For mining machine investors, the most direct influence on investment decisions is the return days of the mine. That is to say, when the bitcoin proceeds from mining can exceed the cost of the rigs spent, as well as the cost of mining electricity, and thus enter the profit period。
Mint claims that, in general, new mineral opportunities return in about a year. According to f2pool data, for example, in the case of ants19 pro, at the price of bitcoin on 22 january, the daily cost of electricity was 103. 41 yuan per day at 0. 34 yuan/degree, the daily cost of electricity was 26. 52 yuan per day, and the net gain was 76. 89 yuan, a reduction of one third to 102 days for the return date。
At the same time, total net miners ' incomes are rising. According to the data published by glassnode on 29 december 2020, the income of the bitcoin miners has reached $1 million per hour, the highest stage of the award since july 2019 and an 85 per cent increase since may 2020, when bitcoin was halved。
Data collected by theblock show that, as at 20 january, revenue from mining in bitcoin ($727. 1 million) in january 2021 had exceeded total income in december ($692 million) and reached its highest level since january 2018。
Bitcoin miners earn more than $1 million an hour
However, in the face of hundreds of new people coming to consult on mining, murphy’s heart largely discourages it. “the price of a mainstream mine is now over 50,000, and ordinary people actually need a financial threshold to invest. At the same time, the industry itself is complex, requiring the identification of a reliable mine partner, together with the fact that it is directly affected by price fluctuations in bitcoin, and that new people who know nothing and who cannot take the risk are in fact vulnerable to loss.”
An in-house analysis of interface journalists suggests that the bulk is now largely unaffordable and that, against the backdrop of the increasing difficulty of mining, it is easy to get out of the game in the extremes and in the growth of computing power. Large-scale institutions, which may use mining as a long-term investment in asset reserves, may be more appropriate for them for a four-year cycle, but seek only a one-year paper return, in fact with many questions。
If the value of the bitcoin collapses, it means that the revenues from mining will also decline rapidly and even with the value of the mine, but the electricity bill and the cost of the established mine will still be spent, and if the costs cannot be covered, the machine will be shut down, even if the miners will have to sell the mine equipment to recover the costs from the time the mine equipment is sold。
Wang hong (alias) now remembers the scene of 2017, which is similar to today's when the ether and bitcoin both made a breakthrough, “almost everyone on the road talking about bitcoin”. And so he was impulsive, and he paid over $100,000 to buy seven machines and start digging。
Soon, however, currency prices fell sharply and unexpectedly, from a peak of $20,000 at the end of 2017 to around $4,000 at the end of 2018, with more than 80 per cent of the dollar being withdrawn。
Like many “mine workers”, wang hong was unable to make enough of the crash and ended up selling his mining equipment at very low prices. He's done it. It's over 200,000。
Returning to today's bitcoin market, after a breakthrough of $40,000, bitcoin began to shake down and even fell straight on 22 january。
A group of people started to be vigilant and linked to the old mine shadow, “when the mine came at all costs, the mine came, who could not bear it, and who left was king.” a miner said。
In the face of a collapse, murphy was relieved that “the price line for mining should be around $6,000 against the value of bitcoin, that is, even if it is now down to $20,000, it is actually profitable to dig”
In murphy's description, most of the old miners he was exposed to were determined viewers: “the price of $340,000, many people don't even want to sell the money, let alone the machine, is probably about $100,000
In the eyes of william, the chief analyst at the okex institute, the current bitcoin situation is already a period of panic in the bubble cycle, “speculation in the bitcoin market has become the dominant factor, and the market has accumulated a great deal of risk, creating a huge bubble, with only one fuse to detonate”
In the last few months, wang hong has discovered that more than two years after the 17-year-old mine in his hands, the crowd of unspoken people has become active again. On social platforms, he described himself as a coin-cooked cabbage, and after 17 years of his experience with a “high-altitude switch”, he advised you not to buy a mine or a bitcoin。
Remembering the old miner friends who had been washed out of the “312 mine crash” earlier this year, the ceo mint of the wondrous mine was a little boozy, “even in this round of bitcoin, they didn't come back because there was no money.”
(i'm a reporter on the interface news tracking block chain. If you have any thoughts on this paper, welcome to add my tweet: jingl-)
