Since the end of september, when the state offered to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, a series of policies have been put in place. Policies such as special debt collection, monetization and real estate tax adjustment have been introduced at the central level, while at the local level there has been continued optimization in terms of limited purchases and down payment rates. These policies have led to a significant increase in the housing market, with a focus of october 40 urban new house exchanges increasing by 5. 0 per cent and 13 urban used room deals rising by 23. 8 per cent。
In this context, on november 23, chongshin published a study, drawing on international experience, in which 5 overseas housing prices fell by about 20 to 40 per cent in a downward cycle of about 5 to 10 years. Given that chinese housing prices have fallen by almost 15 per cent for three years, it is assumed that chinese housing prices are expected to stabilize again around 2026。
At the same time, in 2025, it is expected that the core cities will be expected to take the lead in stabilizing, with a narrow reduction in key indicators, with a decline in sales space, new start-ups, completed areas and investments of 8. 3 per cent, 17. 9 per cent, 7. 7 per cent and 10. 7 per cent, respectively, and a recommendation to focus on housing companies that have made the transition to new quality productivity, as well as high-quality commercial property companies, to guard against deflation risks。
There is a divergence of views among netizens on this projection. Some netizens shared the view that it was possible to stabilize housing prices in the light of sustained policy momentum and some positive changes in the market. It was mentioned, for example, that recent policies in front-line cities such as the abolition of ordinary and non-ordinary housing standards had indeed brought some good to the market, reduced the cost to buyers, helped to increase market confidence and laid the foundation for stable housing prices。
However, a number of netizens are skeptical. According to netizens, current income expectations and willingness to buy housing are weak, and even with policy support, market demand is unlikely to rise significantly in a short period of time. There are also concerns among netizens that the stock problem in the real estate market remains high, especially in some third- and fourth-line cities, with high levels of pressure to go to stock, which may create some obstacles to the stabilization of housing prices. Moreover, some netizens have questioned whether it is scientifically reasonable to simply refer to overseas experience, after all, china’s real estate market has its own characteristics and complexities, and cannot simply be compared to foreign situations。
On the positive side, policy support is an important force in bringing housing prices back on track. A series of policy measures at the central and local levels, ranging from reducing the cost of housing to optimizing the market environment, have to some extent stimulated market demand and provided strong guarantees for the stable development of the real estate market. Moreover, in terms of market performance, there have been some signs of stability in housing prices in some cities, such as in october, when 7 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a rise in the price of new commercial residential sales, and 8 out of a rise in second-hand residential housing, which in part confirms the trend towards warming。
However, the uncertainties and challenges cannot be ignored. First, the impact of income and expectations on the real estate market is critical. In the current economic situation, population income growth is under pressure, and instability in the job market makes consumers more cautious about future expectations, which may discourage the release of demand for housing。
Second, the regional segmentation of the real estate market is evident, with large differences between the market conditions of the first and second-line cities and the third-line cities. The problems of stock backlogs and population outflows faced by third- and fourth-line cities may make it more difficult to stabilize their housing prices。
In addition, while overseas experience can provide some lessons, the unique characteristics of china’s real estate market, such as land systems, financial policies, demographics, etc., determine the dynamics of domestic housing prices that cannot be judged by the same pattern and experience as abroad。
In short, china’s projections of construction offer a way of thinking, but whether china’s housing prices will stabilize around 2026 will require further observation and analysis of market changes, as well as of the impact of policy implementation. For home buyers, investors and related practitioners, rational decision-making should be based on their own circumstances and market dynamics。
