In the last few years, walnuts have become the pets of the manga collection. It has been reported in the media that when the walnuts were the hottest in the last two years, the shopkeepers who played in the market for cherries in beijing earned nearly ten thousand dollars a day, and the most expensive walnuts in a pair could even sell to 3. 4 million。
However, this scene has not been sustained, and since 2015 prices for walnuts have fallen sharply. What's the reason for that? How should merchants, growers and collectors make rational choices
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The supply is too much, and the price of walnuts is falling
Ms. Wu, a shopkeeper who had been playing walnuts for many years at the tianjin cultural market in beijing, said that business had become increasingly difficult since the previous year and sometimes would not open for one day. In retrospect, her profits from the walnut business here were still very substantial. Today's price decline is not due to the poor quality of walnuts, but rather to the growing number of big and good walnuts。
Ms. Wu: when it's big, when it's cheap, he thinks it's worthless。
In addition, according to ms. Wu, today the production of walnuts has increased dramatically, making farmers less profitable。
Ms. Wu: one tree used to sell hundreds of thousands of trees, one family planted several trees, 10 eight trees sold hundreds of thousands to millions, and now it's 100,000 200,000, much worse than before。
Many of the traders who run walnuts like ms. Wu are having a hard time today. The impact of the sharp increase in walnut production and the fall in prices for the last two years has indeed been felt by the walnut growers of hebei water at the primary production site. Growers are also less optimistic about future prices because of planting walnuts。
The situation is just a rational return to the price of goods
In the arts world, the price booms and drops in recent years are much more than walnuts. For example, at the peak of 2013, the price of a gold-snake wood in the market had already gone from the initial tens of thousands of dollars to tens of millions of dollars. But when it's over, it's over. At the end of 2014, the market suddenly began to cool down as a whole, from $80,000 per ton to $230,000 a ton。
The industry believes that any oversupply is bound to bring about a fall in prices, and that the situation today is simply a rational return to the prices of goods。
Gigi is the head of a company that specializes in the cultivation of walnuts, with an area of more than 800 acres and 10,000 walnut trees. According to gigi, since 2013, the market for walnuts has shown excess。
Old g: the hottest time was between 2009 and 2011, when prices were highest and demand was highest. By 2013 and 2014, it had begun to show up, and the ten river, pan's home had left. There must have been no such information down there, and the trees were being razed, causing the price to drop five to ten times last year。
It is estimated that almost 45,000 acres of walnuts are grown throughout the tung shui district, and that the income generated by this large area to growers is above ground compared to earlier。
Gl: if it's good, it's 100,000 to 200,000. It was worth up to $2,000 and $4,500 the previous year. Not last year, 50 or 100。
Manning walnuts will be out of the mainstream, but they can't be completely out of the market
In the view of a writer, the walnut game is not strictly a collection。
Yu hong goose: none of the collections we're talking about are long in the land, but they're limited in production, for example, a peak art level that a craftsman can achieve at a given time, like a painting. And walnuts are infinity, which means that, while we put them in writing, they're not collectors, they're agricultural products, and they're actually mistaken for collections。
Yu liu described the fact that most of the walnuts used to play before were wild walnuts, and that with the advances in modern agricultural technology, a large number of better walnuts entered the market after 2000 with the maturity of such means as marriage. Today, the price of walnut-playing walnuts has fallen and is linked to a number of factors, in addition to planting piles。
Yu hong goose: wen is used to blind play, and they do not have a macro-plan. It's hard to predict because it's been automatically regulated since ancient times. The buddha replaced it, the string replaced it, overplanted it, and destroyed it, so walnuts will be out of the mainstream in the future, but they cannot be completely out of the market。
There is a “unseen hand” in a market economy, when a commodity price rises rapidly, followed by an increase in supply, which inevitably leads to oversupply, followed by a fall in prices, not just walnuts, but also for many commodities, with risks inherent in the seemingly hot market. Whether it be a business player or a farmer with a walnut, it should be risk-aware and should not be in the mood. Only then can the situation be seen and losses avoided before the market surge。
