[investigations] the school district collapsed at 600,000? Look at the status of the house prices in shanghai under the new deal
People's network poster reporter
From the continuation of the real estate tax to the restricted purchase of legal premises; from joint interviews with housing companies in the “six sectors” to the substantial investment of public rental housing; and from the tightening of the bank's mortgage policy to the roll-out of the new “ten articles”, a series of policies introduced in shanghai have been called “the strongest in history”. On 17 march, the shanghai education commission released the " measures for the implementation of the shanghai high school admission reform " , which, like the same thunderbolt, once again shook the shanghai real estate market。
“from the moment the fence was erected in the school district, the children were segregated into two levels, which were not only unfair to education, but also an important factor in the rise in the price of housing.” zhang shinmin, a high school teacher in shanghai, said that the new deal was inevitable. According to netizens, shanghai's famous old + double-degree district, the price of the may garden house fell instantly, pre-new deal property was assessed at $4. 3 million, post-new deal house prices became 3. 7 million and prices dropped by 600,000 overnight..
House prices in the school district have risen by 43% in five months
Public data show that the average commercialized price of new commercial housing in shanghai was $55994 per square metre in 2020, a 2. 5 per cent increase over the same period. For example, in the last year's school district, where more of the top three forest blocks (including the front beach) were fired, the average value of the new commercial housing stock was $99359 per square metre in 2020, an increase of 17. 7 per cent over the same period. At the same time, housing prices in the shanghai school district rose sharply。
In may 2020, the shanghai school complex, following the “dominator rock” policy, had an old and small public housing complex, the price of which had risen directly from $100,000/m2 to $250,000/m2. The surge began in october, with an increase of 43 per cent in less than five months。
In shanghai, the second-hand room situation was high, driven by a mad rise in school buildings. According to the data, 24,000 sets - 445,000 sets of monthly maturities were maintained for 10 consecutive months from april 2020 to january 2021, with the highest peak in january 2021。
“even if prices rise, the school district will be hard to reach. For children attending school, the school district is a watershed in educational resources, and no matter how old the house is, no matter how expensive it is, the buyers continue to struggle. For families with money, they can buy a house, and for families with near terms, they are blocked by high house prices. The sharp rise in housing prices in the school district will naturally drive the price of the surrounding house.” liu yu, a housing firm consultant, said。
By january 2021, the trend in housing prices in the shanghai school district had continued to increase, even though several regional school buildings had been referred to as “the price of the day”. According to the data, in mid-december 2020, a 30-square-square-square-square-square double-school house was contracted in a small area of the area, at a price of $4. 1 million. In january 2021, the price of houses in the same area increased by more than 800,000 yuan, and the landlord's name was set at 5. 05 million yuan, with a final deal of 4. 98 million yuan, an increase of more than 20 per cent between january。
“the hottest regions of huangpo, pudong, jian an and zhang jiang are not only high prices, but also high rates of school house demolitions. Since june last year, housing prices have increased, making it difficult to find a room.” a market analyst from a real estate enterprise in huangpo district, shanghai, described rapid increases in the short term as a manifestation of high prices, which, when price jumps, are fatal risk challenges for investors。
In the middle school, the new deal will be reformed
On 16 march, the shanghai city council published the " implementation of the shanghai high school admission reform " . From 2022 onwards, admissions to the city's upper secondary school level have been divided into three categories: self-employed admissions, a comprehensive evaluation of the allocation of places and uniform admissions. The recently published implementation scheme further refines the percentage of self-employed enrolments, the distribution of places, the comprehensive evaluation of admission procedures, etc。
Specific requirements for the allocation of quotas are specified in the implementation scheme: the pilot municipal quota allocation scheme for high schools accounts for 65 per cent of the total number of their enrolment plans; the quota allocation scheme for district-based pilot high schools must be no less than 20 per cent, on a balanced and random basis, to non-selective secondary schools; the quota allocation scheme for district-based pilot high schools accounts for 50-65 per cent of the total number of enrolment plans; the district enrolment scheme accounts for approximately 30 per cent of the total allocation plan for local schools; and the quota allocation scheme for school-based students is about 70 per cent。
Quotas for district-based pilot model high schools are allocated to the school enrolment scheme, which in principle is based on the proportion of enrolments in non-chosen secondary schools in the district as a proportion of the total number of enrolments in the district's secondary schools in this category, and is allocated to each non-selective secondary school in the district, with full coverage. The document states that the branch or school district of the municipal experimental model high school is, in principle, implemented in accordance with the regional experimental model high school admission policy。
Following the introduction of a comprehensive quota evaluation of the admission reform, the selection agency will combine the total results of the livelihood sub-section with the total results of the comprehensive examination (50 points, with a separate methodology). The main examination was the completion of the comprehensive qualifications report and the development of the integrated qualifications of students. At the same time, the review process and results will be ensured in a fair and impartial manner through a system of safeguards such as a full-time video and a double-blind matching。
In this regard, professor zhou bin of the university of teacher training in huadong believes that the current mid-level reform has resulted in the allocation of most of the places for municipal experimental model high schools directly to every non-selective secondary school, which means that graduates of all types of lower secondary schools will have the opportunity to move to high-quality high schools. “students can see hope as long as they work, regardless of region or school. This is therefore a significant benefit for parents of students facing compulsory school enrolment, contributing to a firm choice of the confidence to enrol near a school at the door of their home and reducing school anxiety.”
“this means that there will be a significant increase in the number of students entering high-quality high schools from the general lower secondary school, which would be tantamount to giving each child a relatively level playing field.” according to zhang xianmin, “the majority of families who were close to living in conditions before then would have to choose private primary schools of poor quality because they did not have a school district. The introduction of the new deal has coincided with a change in this pattern, which has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of gold in the school district. Similarly, this effect may gradually extend to quality primary schools.”
There's only one example of a collapse in house prices
As a result of the new deal, the prices of houses in the famous double-degree district of mei park in shanghai began to fall sharply, with online friends claiming that 4. 3 million properties had been assessed prior to the announcement of the new deal, and that the post-new deal home price had fallen to 3. 7 million and 600,000 overnight. At the same time, the housing agency posted information showing that a 32m2 school block in the 2nd street of mae park had registered 7. 2 million prior to the new deal and had been revised to 6. 99 million since the new deal; and that the 3rd street of mae park, a house of nearly 47 square metres, had an average of $8. 25 million and an average of $180,000 per square metre。
Journalists have learned from the pacific, chainers, etc. That, in addition to plum gardens, there are other school districts where house prices have jumped. “the reduction to 5 per cent or even to 10 per cent on an individual basis, and the introduction of the new deal has affected not only the prices but also the volume of the deal, with one property falling below 7 million, from 7. 5 million a year ago, and 11 visits, but only 3 bids. “a presentation by a consultant for pacific house, “but only one example, there is no major collapse”
In random interviews with housing sales and intermediaries, such as xuxiang and poshan, journalists have been informed that the new deal is now in its early stages, that most homeowners and home buyers are waiting, that there have been cases of a “crash down” on the internet, or that there has been an urgent need to spend money on behalf of individual homeowners, which has led to substantial price reductions. There are also homeowners who appear to have adjusted prices at a much higher level, in fact simply adjusting the prices that were borrowed upwards last year。
“there is a landlord who hangs the house, but the price is not cheap, and it is also observed at this stage. The new deal was announced several years ago, so most people are watching. Landlords have also said that it will take a year and two years since the new deal was launched to see the real impact, so they are not in a hurry to do so. But for parents, whether they were in school or not, the house or just needed it, the desire to buy it was strong.” the business manager of poshan one housing company claimed。
According to lee yang, a well-known real estate broker in xu seok, there is currently no significant decrease in the price of the school house in this area, but the situation in the school room has subsided, “it will not drop or increase, but it will stay there when the property is traded in small quantities. Most landlords are reluctant to sell at reduced prices if they are not rushing to use money or change their houses. It's just that there's been a reduction in the number of firehouses, and after all, it's just a rise and fall."
In response, shanghai market analyst lu wenzei argued that the buying and selling of both parties was still in the process. “the price has not changed because the market is not closed, and the owners who are already listed may not be in a hurry to sell, and buyers and sellers are in the game stage. However, the market is expected to decline for the school district, which should then enter a process of return that is worthy of itself.”
In the analysis of housing price hotspots conducted by the institute for evictions, the relative stability of the schools in the hwangura district was explained by the introduction of a school-to-school-to-school education policy in the huangura district during the primary stage, and by the “house-to-house” policy in the pudong region, which “means the purchase of the corresponding junior secondary school wards and the uneven distribution of educational resources which makes local housing prices hot”。
Self-regulation initiatives by industry associations
On the afternoon of 19 march, the shanghai city association of real estate brokers launched a self-regulatory initiative to regulate the listing of housing sources and the dissemination of information to all housing brokers in shanghai. The initiative focuses on irregular publication of information on housing sources in the area of real estate intermediaries, false publicity by “school houses”, low-priced high-level social and civic concerns。
Chainers, pacific, nakahara, i love my home, q housenet, 21st century houses, syndicate houses, macalon houses, chiyo houses, jisaku houses, 58 residents, house searches, roommates, hashiuri, etc. Responded to the initiative and signed a letter of commitment on the spot。
The statements of commitment include, inter alia, the publication of information on the use of the terms “school house” promotion or misleading home buyers in the name of “school house”, the use of terms such as “upgrading rate” “opportunity” to describe schools in the vicinity of housing sources, the publication of unverified and priced housing sources, and the introduction of “heat ranking” “investment potential” as four elements of house prices。
According to data for the third week of march 2021 in shanghai city, the price of second-hand rooms in shanghai city has been reduced from $52,588, to $52,571, falling from $17 per week to $17 per week, and the number of second-hand rooms sold in shanghai city for nearly three weeks is 36133, 37504 and 37903, which continues to increase. Experts estimate that the number of second-hand rooms to be sold in shanghai this week will exceed 38,000。
Netizens have indicated that, as a result of the implementation of the “ten circles”, the city of shanghai is now experiencing a silent decline in heat. After spring, many buyers slowed down and began to follow the new deal. Now that the new education policy has been introduced, overheating housing prices have been severely affected. “as a combination of considerations, the total house price in shanghai may be set back and forth, the extent of which is not yet known, but at least it will not be in a hurry to purchase.”
The director of research at the centre for think tanks of the institute of evictions has made a major leap forward and believes that this time shanghai is a new deal for reform, which will allocate high-quality high school resources in a quota manner. All types of schools can be followed up with more equitable admissions, which naturally reduces the phenomenon of “hot spots” and contributes to the smooth and healthy development of the shanghai real estate market by cooling overheating primary and lower secondary schools。
The overall decline in housing prices is not significant
According to zhang bo, director of the house of directors of the institute of housing and evictions, the new deal is certainly not conducive to schools, but the current policy adjustment is not particularly significant, and the price impact on housing in the short term will not be significant and will have a more psychological impact on the population. “as a result of future adjustments and a step-by-step equalization of educational resources, the traditional school house concept may be broken. But from now on, the impact is not that great."
“the new policy, from the point of view of the balance of educational resources, allows parents to rationally choose their schools and businesses, and it is true that some of the hotspots follow up with cooling or a slight decline in their strong position. This is also reflected in lower premiums for subscriptions and lower costs for related home purchases.” experts have suggested that under correctional policies, parents and home buyers should rationally choose the school and the business。
According to mr. Zhang, the new policy is a long-term trend towards the equalization of educational resources and the removal of the price of a degree, so that the difference between the school and non-school buildings will become smaller and the house will return to the value of the dwelling. “but in terms of current prices, the overall decline is not clear.”
“it is also hoped that the government will step up its efforts to bring home prices back to normal, as they are now beyond the reach of many who need them. The reform of the education policy may have contained the school buildings and the housing market as a whole, but it has yet to regulate the expected prices, and it is hoped that, through a series of new deals, the real house will be used for housing, not for fire.” ms. Lee, who had recently been searching for suitable housing sources, said that she looked forward to a return to normal housing prices。
