The national statistical office will publish the consumer price index (cpi) for august today. Many agencies forecast that, as a result of the fall-off of the tailings factor, the cpi increased or fell to about 2. 1 per cent in august, a rise that will be below four months. The analysis indicates that prices will continue to remain low in the future, with little inflationary pressure throughout the year。
Cpi increased or reached 4 months low in august
After two months of continuous growth of 2. 3 per cent, the cpi increased or will fall in august. Many agencies forecast that, although food prices rose in august, this will be four months lower in the four-month period since april (1. 8 per cent), taking into account the large decline in the latex factor, the cpi increased by 2. 1 per cent in august。
According to monitoring by the ministry of commerce, the market prices of agricultural products consumed in 36 cities and cities across the country (10. 38,0. 09,0. 87 per cent) rose slightly over three consecutive weeks in august, with pork prices increasing by 0. 7 per cent, 2. 1 per cent, 1. 1 per cent and 0. 4 per cent over the previous week, respectively, and eggs by 1. 6 per cent, 2 per cent, 3 per cent and 1. 8 per cent over the previous week。
The chief economist of the transport bank (4. 31, -0. 03, -0. 69 per cent) stated that while food prices had continued to rise in august, the cpi was expected to increase by about 2. 0 per cent to 2. 2 per cent in august, with a median value of 2. 1 per cent, owing to a fall in the tail factor of about 0. 5 percentage points from july。
Institutions such as galaxy securities (11. 05, -0. 11, -0. 99 per cent), xin gwyn gwan [webbo], silver forest usa and others similarly projected a 2. 1 per cent increase in the cpi in august; state-owned securities, macro-source securities (12. 15,0. 06, 0. 50 per cent), etc., with slightly higher growth of 2. 3 per cent; and silver securities, with slightly lower growth of 2. 0 per cent。
The agency expects little inflationary pressure throughout the year
Looking ahead to future price trends, multiple projections suggest that prices will remain low in the second half of the year, with little inflationary pressure throughout the year。
Analysis of luang securities (9. 14, 0. 11, - 1. 19 per cent) indicates that while the recent rebound in pork prices has pushed up the food ring over the last two weeks, in the longer term the kinetic energy of food price increases is still quite limited, and cpi is expected to remain low and the cpi increase in september will be further low。
The report of the analysis of syndicate indicates that the price of pork needs to be addressed in the future. Although there was a small increase in the amount of raw pigs in july, the number of able-bodied pigs continued to decline, and continued contraction of supplies would provide further space for the price of pigs to rise。
The report notes, however, that the cpi is expected to rise by 2. 4 per cent throughout the year without inflationary pressure, taking into account the fact that industrial producers ' out-of-plant prices (ppi) are still in a tight state and that real estate adjustments will lead to a fall in residential prices. This will be far below the annual regulatory target of 3. 5 per cent. (concluded)
Responsible editor: zhang dei
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