The fundamentals of futures and the rise and fall factor
Assuming that a client believes that the soybean price is going to rise, the first-hand futures contract is bought at $3,000 per ton (10 tons per soybean, with a margin of about 10 per cent) and then the price actually falls to $3,300 per ton, and the client buys a hand-in-hand to settle and completes a transaction。
Futures trend judgement method
I judge trends in futures transactions, mainly through indicators. My own medium- and low-frequency strategy, for example, is mainly tracked through turtle trading systems。
The direction of the trend is to be judged by the dayline or weekly pattern of the species. When investors open up a chart of trends for any one species, they first need to know what their trend is: upward, downward or horizontal。
In futures markets, some investors follow the k-line trend closely in order to be able to make a good judgement of futures market trends。
What is the basis for futures price fluctuations
1 psychological factors: it is also important that investors have confidence in the market. The price of a commodity will rise if it is preferred, even if there is no element of benefit, and when it is downgraded, there will be no downside。
In short, the price rises and falls in futures are a supply-and-demand relationship, and the balance of supply and demand between money and futures is the futures price. Money, the force to push up; futures, the force to press down. There are many theories, indicators, etc. In the technical analysis。
3. The united states dollar and exchange rates, which influence commodity price factors, show a negative correlation between the united states dollar exchange rate and large commodities, and the positive correlation between the united states dollar exchange rate and large commodities takes place mostly at a time of dollar appreciation。
The factors affecting futures prices are as follows: for all durable commodities, carry-over stocks are an important influencing factor, and carry-over stocks represent the amount of goods remaining at the end of a sales year. The size of the carry-over stock can indicate supply shortages。
Immediate prices for futures commodities vary according to open competition among many buyers and sellers. Futures goods must be those that have many buyers and sellers。
6. The market economy is the product of price changes that are influenced by market supply and demand. Futures prices fall when supply exceeds demand; vice versa, futures prices rise。
How to use opening prices for futures prices to determine trends
I judge trends in futures transactions, mainly through indicators. My own medium- and low-frequency strategy, for example, is mainly tracked through turtle trading systems。
Therefore, the analysis of the changes in the three would facilitate the correct prediction of futures price trends. First, the volume of the transaction and the amount of holding stock increased with price increases, suggesting that the number of contracts bought and sold by new entrants exceeded the level of the original traders and that the buyer's strength prevailed over the seller。
As a rule, futures in the nearest month are higher than in the forward months. However, if such shortages disappear, they revert to the premium market。
