Unit aThis post is part of our special coverage syria protests 2011Supreme lawSpeak! The reason for the drop is found, and tomorrow we'll have a bigger change
Today, a fell a little bit. The 4,100 points were missed, the 50s fell directly by over 3 per cent, and the entire market fell by almost 4,500 shares. White wine is on the rise, power is on the rise, light is on the rise -- it's all in the safe direction, it's the only wayTechnology unitIn the fall, the semiconductor is the main net outflow of funds exceeding $17 billion。
The first reaction of a lot of the occupant is, "what's going on?" isn't misaki just over a trillion dollars worth? Isn't that 2027? Didn't you just release the law last week? Why is it so good and so good
In particular, the post-execution supreme court has spoken of “promising, as soon as possible, a judicial interpretation of civil damages involving insider trading and market manipulation”. A lot of people are conscious of linking it to today's decline and think it's a “profit coming”。
But you think carefully — how can it be a space for hitting insider trading and protecting small and medium investors? The improvement of the rule of law is the basis for unit a to mature. There is no causal link between today's fall and the highest legal sound, but only a “crash” in time。
I. The real reason for today's fall: it's much higher than space
The fundamental reason for the decline in the science and technology unit was not that fundamentals had gone wrong, but that the short term had indeed gone too far。
At the morgan chase tmc meeting, 13 semiconductor companies confirmed the same calibre: orders were still stacked and storage shortages extended to 2027. Pcb orders are strong, full-time and many companies are expanding their production significantly. Global semiconductor revenues are projected to exceed $1. 3 trillion in 2026, a 64 per cent increase over the same period. Domestic computing demand is still growing explosively, and china's megamodel weekly calls are four consecutive weeks ahead of the united states — none of which points to “industry at the top”. Trouble at the trade level。
The top 5 per cent of the recent turnover was once over 48 per cent of the total a, and funding was too concentrated on the science and technology sector. In april and may, the semiconductor, storage chip, cpo and other plates generally increased by more than 40 per cent, with the primary capital net outflow reaching hundreds of billion in five days. Intensive discount announcements are issued successively with risk tips for abnormally volatile stock prices — too much leverage, too much increase in the short term, and the profit pool is cashed out, and naturally falls。
This is essentially the same thing as the september 2024 wave-back, and it's essentially the same thing as the one in the light module at the beginning of 2025 — not the industrial trend has changed, but the short-term mood needs to be released. The national gold securities state clearly that the ai case is not out of control, although it has a bubble, and that the bottom support is from agenic ai to the autonomous implementation tool. Logically, the outlook is that funds are flowing out for a short period of time only for better entry。
The voice of the supreme law is not just a profit, but a long-term system. The fact that the highest law is rare means that unit a rules of the game are shifting towards “institutionalization, value for money” and long-term protection for the diaspora is increasing. It's actually a good thing。
Ii. The true meaning of the supreme law: the bottom of the long term is firmly established
At today's press conference, the deputy minister-general, deputy chief justice liu qianxiang, of the trial committee of the supreme people's court, made it clear that a judicial interpretation of civil compensation for insider trading and market manipulation would be developed as soon as possible to guarantee the sound functioning of capital markets and to effectively safeguard the legitimate interests of small and medium-sized investors. To strengthen the coordinated management of justice and financial regulation to combat financial crime。
What do you mean? It's literally understood: if a listed company deals in the inside, manipulates the stock price, it can sue, and the court supports it. This is a step that a shares must take towards a mature market. The better the system, the higher the value revaluation of high-quality companies, which is the real base of the a stock of “bows”。
When the underworld of the rule of law is in real time, it's not a day or two, it's the real foundation. The only next question to ask is: who can take the lead in getting financial recognition in a structured window
Will it change tomorrow? The agency says so
Zhang ping noted that unit a was currently at the critical node of “technology rotation + high- and low-funding” and that tomorrow's events would revolve around the 4,100 points of multi-space competition. Many agencies agreed that the change in style was a process and that it would take more time to complete the change。
But there are two possibilities for tomorrow:
First scenario: short-line rebound of the technology unit. Today is the second day after the technological unit has returned, and part of the endboard of the business has already moved back. High-level logic is not fundamentally shaken and there will be a retrieving rebound when emotions are released. Once the technology unit has a short-wire reverse, the risk-shield direction, such as white wine and electricity, shakes, which is the “short-wire reverse direction”。
Second scenario:Style switchDeep. If the main funding continues to be withdrawn from the science and technology unit and moved to defense blocks such as white wine, electricity and coal, the short-term index may continue to be under pressure, but the structural style switch will be a follow-on build-up force。
My judgment is that the bottom logic of technology has not changed in the medium term, but that there is a need for fuller digestion in the short term. If the early-disk technology unit continues its inertial search tomorrow and does not break the 60-day line, the tailboard may be a staged game point. At the same time, for semiconductor equipment, storage chips, advanced seals, the indentation is the window for left-hand observation, provided that the position is controlled, not high, and there is no panic. In the worst case scenario, nothing but a little longer at the bottom。
Iv. Three responses
There are only three ways to cope with the current situation:
• if you look at the bottom logic of ai in the long term: today's fluctuations are not worth cutting. Orders are still on schedule until 2027, the pcb is fully paid, and global capital is raging, as evidenced by trillions of dollars in beauty. There is no news today that can shake that fundamental face. The real multiplicity of heads should not be cut in this position, but should consider time for space. In retrospect, the sharp reversal of each cycle of technology units has proved to be a new surge。
• if the silo is too heavy, it cannot sleep at night: it can be properly lowered and contained within 60 per cent, after the morning drive inertia. Instead of looking at technology, cash is the best asset in an extremely crowded market. It's not because of technology. It's to get you back on the bottom。
• if you do not see the long-term logic of ai at all: today is a signal to gradually switch to high dividends and low-valued defenses while white wine and electricity rebound. But remember -- you shouldn't regret and red when technology goes up. It's your choice。
Last sentence
Despite the sharp decline in the index today, the supreme law gives investors a long-term “mascot”, which is a real long-term benefit for share a ecology. It is not logical for the technology stock to fall, but rather emotional sales due to the overcrowding of short-term chips。
