This month, when you're brushing your cell phone, you probably get two completely unconnected news stories: the first is the opening of the sea scene, which started in shenzhen at a total cost of 50 million, which was sold directly on the same day, at a unit price of nearly 400,000 per person; the second is the distribution of friends by intermediaries in your home county, where 8,000 peri-urbans are now paying first 20,000 dollars in return for 10 years of property, and a six-month-old second-hand room without even a telephone call。
You used to feel like, "it's as if the city's cold and hot in different places." it's not an illusion。
What's the difference you can get directly
If you're looking at houses in a front-line city like shanghai or shenzhen, you'll find a clear change in the recent visit to the intermediary store: the first hot new room in the system was signed off three days ago, the landlord was willing to give you 10% of the bargaining space, and now the jump price is 5-8%。
According to the may 2026 statistics of the central institute, the price of new housing in the first-line cities rose by 0. 26 per cent in relation to the ring, and the stock of residential stock in the core areas was demined for only six to eight months, to the extent that, in white, it was not enough to sell a good house that met the demand。
If you're in a second-line city like chengdu and wuhan, and you're going to see the broker for the improvement last week, you'll probably be called this week and say, "the house you were looking at has been taken away." in may, the second-hand room was handed over on a single-month basis in an area of 2. 14 million flats, directly to all cities in the country, with a 33 per cent increase over the same period。
But if you live in 3rd and 4th-line cities like kunshan, quintao, you've been under your building for almost five years, and now half of your house is empty. Local prices for new housing have fallen by 2. 6 per cent over the same period, the average stock of new housing in the three or four cities in the sample has reached 30. 3 months, and the evaporation cycle in quinshan has exceeded 62 months — at the current rate of sale, cleaning up all new houses in their hands, more than five years。
Ninety per cent of the cities in which the country's 100-city house prices fell are on three or four lines. Three years ago, you came from your home to buy the first-paying fares, and now you can't find even one who asks。
It's all in your everyday choices
You can feel itPolicy supportStrength is completely different from the beginning. The first-line city you're waiting for this year has been able to raise the amount of the provident fund loan line directly, with shanghai family provident fund lending a maximum of $3. 24 million, which is equivalent to buying an improved house, which is worth thousands of dollars a month。
But in your home county, you've already let go of all the credit limits in 2024, and you've run out all the subsidies and interest rates you can afford to buy, and you can't draw out any new stimulus, and you're out of cards。
In the first quarter of 2026, 90 per cent of the country's net net inflow of 1. 86 million people went to the top 20 cities, with shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou, hangzhou and chengdu alone absorbing more than 62 per cent of the country's new inflow。
Nine out of ten young people from your hometown who have just graduated have gone to the provincial capital or to the first-line city to find work, can't even stay, without a new new entry wheel, and the basics of the house are empty。
The gap between supply and demand is even more evident: the first-line cities have this year reduced their supply base by 58. 06 per cent directly compared to the guangzhou housing supply plan, which will only become smaller and smaller later. In your home county, in the far suburbs, there's still a lot of unoccupied land that's not fully developed, and new houses are as tall as mountains and cannot be sold。
In shenzhen, you get 4. 5 million dollars a year for an ai-related job, the average monthly salary in your home county is over 3,000, and the purchasing power has been many times lower from the start。
Your most realistic judgment has changed
The easy-to-be dinzu has made it clear that there is no universal rebound in the present-day market and that only core assets, current houses and high-yielding projects can sustain heat. In the past, no matter which city you were in, you could wait for the era of appreciation to come to an end in may 2026。
If you're holding a small, poorly stocked house on the outskirts of three or four-line cities, you'll be able to take the lead when you meet the right handler. If you have a demand for replacements in the near future, just keep an eye on the core of your city, with mature improvements, and don't come in here for the sake of greed。
This pattern of fragmentation will not change for a long time to come。
