Analysis of the perennial market performance of the vegetable industry
In recent years, there has been an annual increase in vegetable cultivation and production, and there has been a marked increase in demand for vegetable consumption, with a basic balance between total supply and total demand, steady price increases and fluctuations, and a generally sound market。
The area under vegetable cultivation in the country has been growing steadily in recent years, and vegetable production has been increasing. In the 10-year period 2014-2023, the area under vegetable cultivation increased from 1. 924,000 hectares to 228,844 hectares (projected), with an average annual growth of 17. 6 per cent (figure 1); total vegetable production increased from 649 million to 828 million tons, with an average annual growth of 2. 46 per cent (figure 2)。
Figure 1. Changes in the area under vegetable cultivation and annual growth rates, 2014-2023
Figure 2 changes in total vegetable production and annual growth rates, 2014-2023
In recent years, there has been a marked increase in the intake of vegetables and a significant increase in the proportion of the diet. From 2014 to 2022, annual per capita consumption of vegetables increased from 96. 90 kg to 108. 20 kg, with an average annual increase of 1. 23 per cent, showing a clear upward trend。
Based on an analysis of prices data from the vegetable market for nearly 10 years, the market for vegetables has five main characteristics: supply and demand。
The vegetable market operates with seasonal fluctuations, with monthly prices of vegetables generally showing “w”-type fluctuations over each year, albeit at varying degrees (figure 3)。
Figure 3, average monthly price fluctuations for vegetables 2014-2022
Vegetable market supply is characterized by land conversion
With the creation and regulation of a single large market in the country, the pattern of “eating at latitude” is growing. Vegetable production in the country is divided into six dominant major areas:
Vegetable market prices have unusual shocks
Market prices for vegetables face the dual challenges of natural and economic factors, such as climate, season, temperature change, natural disasters, as well as natural factors such as typhoons, hail, frost and thunderstorms, economic factors such as macroeconomic performance, financial insurance systems, crop efficiency expectations, consumption upgrading, and individual commercial engagements at a given point in time, and capital profit drivers. The high price volatility of vegetables (or a certain variety of vegetables), the sharp rise and fall, the abnormal shock, the difficulty of de-sale sale and the “facility of sale” have not only caused a great waste of natural resources, but have also seriously harmed the economic interests of vegetable farmers and consumers。
Vegetable area is determined by the price of the top dish
In general, when the prices of vegetables (or a vegetable species) are higher, the willingness of vegetable producers to plant vegetables tends to increase, thus increasing the area where vegetables (or a vegetable species) are grown; and vice versa. As a result, vegetable prices tend to become “high this year, low next year”, “high season, low season”, “high and low”. At the same time, according to the practices of vegetable growing areas or varieties, vegetable producers show both the blind adherence to traditional farming practices and the great public mentality of “what is originally grown, what is now being planted, what is being planted”, which often affects the balance of vegetable distribution and leads to fluctuations in market prices for vegetables。
Vegetable production is more than a year old and overstretched
At present, the total demand for vegetables in our country is essentially balanced, with an overall pattern of overstretching over the years. The contradiction between the relative separation between the place of production and the place of sale, the contradiction between the seasonality of production supply and the balance of consumption demand, and the magnification effects of natural and economic factors and their interactions, are the main reasons for the often regional, structural and relatively phased excess. However, given the advantages of better substitution between vegetable varieties in market consumption, shorter production cycles of some vegetable varieties and the abundance of fast-growing vegetable varieties, symmetry and matching of information on the distribution of vegetables, supply demand in the market for vegetables is very resilient, elastic and self-regulating, so that, in general, the relative excess of vegetables lasts for a relatively short period of time。
Analysis of vegetable market operations in 2023 and outlook for 2024
In 2023, the market for vegetables in the country grew twice, and the area of vegetables in the field increased from january to december on a monthly basis; the national wholesale price of 28 vegetables, monitored by the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, averaged 5. 08 yuan/kg per year, the highest in the last 10 years. Overall, vegetable production is well supplied, consumption continues to grow, imports and exports continue to show a trade surplus, and there is an overall balance between supply and demand for vegetables. Total vegetable supply and total demand are expected to be broadly balanced in 2024, with a slight surplus; vegetable prices are lower than in 2023 and still show seasonal fluctuations, but they are larger than in 2023; and regional, phased and structural de-sale difficulties continue to occur。
Vegetable market prices were high and small in 2023
Vegetable cultivation is expected to increase slightly in 2023, from 0. 65 per cent per month to 1. 81 per cent per month (figure 4); vegetable production is based on a higher base of area production and a better supply base. The overall weather conditions in 2023 were favourable, generally favouring vegetable production, higher levels of single-production and a good supply situation in the market for vegetables, with the exception of the july-august cyclone dusure。
Charts 4, 2023 monthly vegetable area and year-on-year growth in the country
Vegetable consumption increased and rose slightly。
Vegetable exports increased and the surplus increased slightly
Between january and december 2023, cumulative vegetable imports decreased by 1. 4 per cent over the same period, and by 1. 4 per cent over the same period, by $989 million. Main source countries or areas: india, 41. 7 per cent of imports; viet nam, 13. 3 per cent. The main categories of imports: peppers and their products accounted for 49. 5 per cent of imports and potatoes and their products for 11. 9 per cent。
Exports increased by 6. 5 per cent over the same period to 13. 2614 million t; exports increased by 0. 3 per cent over the same period to $18. 543 billion. The main exporting countries or regions are: viet nam, 13. 0 per cent of exports, japan, 11. 0 per cent, korea, 9. 5 per cent, malaysia, 8. 4 per cent. Main export categories: garlic and its products account for 17. 0 per cent of vegetable exports, tomatoes and their products for 11. 0 per cent and onions and their products for 8. 9 per cent. The trade surplus was $17,554 million, an increase of 0. 37 per cent over the same period。
Vegetable prices are high and volatile
According to the national wholesale prices of 28 types of vegetables monitored by the ministry of agriculture and rural development, the overall price of vegetables was high in 2023, reaching $5. 08/kg, the highest in the last 10 years. In terms of price volatility, the seasonal pattern of vegetable fluctuations continues to be consistent with the “w” pattern, but the volatility is relatively small and the market is generally smooth (figure 5)。
Figure 5: average national vegetable prices per month and growth rate per year, 2023
From january to december, the maximum monthly average was $5. 83/kg in february. In march, as the weather warms, the market supply of vegetables increased and prices became seasonally low, reaching a lower point of $4. 83/kg by may. Vegetable growth in some of the producing areas was affected by several “spawns” in the spring of 2023, and there was a periodic disruption in the supply of vegetables, with prices rising to 4. 99 yuan/kg in june, the highest in the same period for almost 10 years。
In summer, production of real-estate vegetables increased, prices stabilized and in september largely returned to normal levels during the same period of the year. After autumn, most of the country's vegetable-producing areas experienced near-permanent or high temperatures, increased the supply of vegetables, reaching its lowest level in november 2023 at $4. 59/kg; and in december, the price of vegetables rose to $4. 95/kg。
Supply and demand analysis of vegetables, 2024
(1) in terms of the supply of vegetables, there will be a steady increase in the area under cultivation and a steady increase in the production of vegetables. Total vegetable production is expected to be about 850 million t in 2024。
(2) imports of vegetables are projected at 400,000 t. The country's vegetable imports in 2019-2023 amounted to 50. 18 thousand, 466. 4 thousand, 485. 7 thousand, 35. 8 million t and 35. 33 million t (figure 6), respectively. Using time-series analysis methods, vegetable imports in 2024 were estimated at about 400,000 t。
Figure 6. Changes in vegetable imports and annual growth rates, 2015-2023
(3) a small increase in vegetable demand is projected in terms of per capita consumption of vegetables. Vegetable demand is projected to show a small upward trend in 2024
(4) in terms of vegetable exports, 13 million t are projected. The country's vegetable exports in 2019-2023 were 1. 163 million, 1. 999 million, 11. 11 million, 12. 45 million t and 13. 26 million t, respectively (figure 7), resulting in analytical projections of about 14 million t in 2024。
Figure 7. Changes in vegetable exports and annual growth rates, 2015-2023
In the coming year, the market for vegetables in our country will be somewhat liberal and balanced. Production (field production) is projected at 8,54. 58 million t, of which 6,96. 66 million t of merchandise production, 400,000 t of imports, 67. 97 million t of consumption, 14 million t of exports and 3. 3 million t of vegetable balances。
Vegetable market price studies in 2024: analysis of data and analyses of wholesale prices of 28 vegetables, monitored by the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs over the past 10 years, predicts that vegetable prices in 2024 were lower than in 2023, with a price centre of 5. 0 yuan/kg; price fluctuations continue to show seasonal fluctuations, but are higher than in 2023。
Source: articles taken from chinese vegetables, no. 2, “full market performance studies in our vegetable industry”. Author: anmin, tsao sang, sun wei, kong, hong kong, liu se fang. Unit: agricultural information institute of the chinese academy of agricultural sciences, national agricultural science data centre, institute of agricultural economy and development of the chinese academy of agricultural sciences。
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