Hello, everyone
After the fall, changes in the domestic energy market have been a major concern for ordinary households and business users. The supply and demand, and price movements in the gas market are subject to a clear wave of fluctuations before the annual autumn and winter heating season. In the next month and a half, the natural gas market is likely to revert to the pattern of previous years, taking into account the pattern of market operations over the years and the current supply and demand fundamentals。
A lot of people wonder why this is the next month and a half. Time nodes are not based on speculation. In general, starting in october of each year, temperatures in the north are gradually declining, heating preparations are under way and national demand for gas consumption will rise. A month and a half from the time of the current calculation coincides with the beginning of the peak period of air use in autumn and winter. Looking back at the market conditions of the past many years, every time at this time window there has been a rapid surge in demand, a tightening of the supply side and a consequent change in market conditions, which is also an objective market pattern brought about by seasonal shifts and is not a sudden anomaly。
The first is to clarify the perception that natural gas prices will not skyrocket unbridled, that we have a classification mechanism for natural gas prices, that the population has policy guarantees for gas use, and that business and industry use gas to adjust to market fluctuations. It is not strict to say that many of the news that is circulating online prefers a general increase in gas. The cost of air for daily cooking and burning of water does not suddenly rise significantly, and livelihood security is always paramount。
Real volatility is felt mainly in the business sector, including processing plants, catering outlets, heating enterprises, etc. As temperatures fall, the size of gas used by the central heating companies in the north increases exponentially, while many manufacturing firms increase their energy use and the total amount of gas used in the market as a whole increases rapidly. The sources of domestic supply of natural gas are national gas, imported pipeline gas and imported lng gas. Domestic gas production has been increasing steadily over the years, but the rate of increase in capacity has been relatively stable and cannot be amplified indefinitely in a short period of time; imported pipeline gas is delivered steadily under long-term contracts; and a significant portion of lng is required to take into account the current state of the international market。
Every time the gas gap widens by autumn and winter, domestic lng spot purchases are added to fill the gap. International gas spot prices are vulnerable to fluctuations in the international geo-situation situation, overseas weather and global demand for energy purchases. Once multiple overseas regions enter the heating season simultaneously, the number of buyers of global natural gas purchases increases, spot-to-load costs rise, and transport to the home, putting down the cost of purchasing gas for business and industry, a market situation that has been regularly unfolding over the past autumn and winter, and a central logic that we say or will repeat in history。
But that does not mean that there will be a situation of stress. Over the years, the relevant sectors and gas-supply enterprises have been in the pipeline for several months. The subsurface gas reservoirs are expected to complete their gas reserves during a period of high temperatures and low use of gas in the summer and autumn, and to store sufficient natural gas until the peak of the autumn and winter is released to replenish it; the long pipeline overhauls are all scheduled to be completed during the non-heating season to ensure that the gas route is fully operational; and the long-coalt imported gas supply is locked in advance to minimize reliance on high-cost spot goods. A series of pre-positions were designed to keep the bottom line fully supplied with gas。
Ordinary household users do not have to suffer from excessive anxiety or high domestic prices, but there are some practical preparations that can be made in advance. First, the home gas stoves, water heaters and gas pipelines are checked. The high frequency of gas used in autumn and winter, the ageing of the hoses, the looseness of the interface, and the vulnerability to security risks, allow for self-checking whether the hoses are cracking hard, changing in a timely manner beyond the useful life, the smoothness of the valve switch, the discovery of abnormally connected gas companies, and the security always rank first。
Second, to develop a habit of reasonable use of gas. Many families use gas heaters for long periods of bathing in autumn and winter, and empty stoves cause unnecessary consumption. There is no need to be aggressive, to avoid unnecessary waste, or to indirectly reduce overall pressure. Households in a position to do so may check the sealing of doors and windows, keep them warm, reduce the load of water heaters, heating equipment and indirectly reduce gas consumption。
For business users such as individual traders and small-scale processing plants, the market changes in this round are closely linked to their own operating costs, and advance planning is recommended. The first step is to take a proactive approach to local gas providers, to learn about the gas supply programme for the current fall and winter, to confirm their own supply levels, to check the supply contracts in advance, and to find out the ratio of competitive and floating gas. If there has been an increase in costs during peak periods in previous years, budgetary provisions can be made in advance to avoid subsequent cost changes disrupting the business plan。
Second, equipment overhaul and maintenance. Boilers, gas production equipment are pre-maintenanced to ensure the heat efficiency of the equipment, and equipment age failure not only wastes gas but also poses safety risks. If possible, other energy options could be used as buffers, and production programmes could be mismanaged to avoid as much as possible increased capacity at peak gas times and to reduce cost pressures. Don't trust all sorts of small news on the network, don't be misled by exaggerated market rumours, and all official information on prices, gas supplies will be published by gas companies and the rehabilitation sector。
Looking objectively at seasonal fluctuations in the gas market, we want to understand that this is a widespread phenomenon in the global energy sector. The natural gas industry is inherently characterized by summer storage, winter consumption and demand rising and falling with the season. Over the years, we have continued to improve the construction of our gas storage facilities, intensifying domestic hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation, and expanding the diversification of gas sources, with the aim of continuously reducing the price and supply volatility associated with the season. In recent years, the volatility of the natural gas market in autumn and winter has continued to shrink and the system of insurance has been improving。
Of course, the risk points are equally objective. In the event of extreme cooling weather, higher-than-anticipated demand for heating and unusually high international spot prices will continue to pose a considerable challenge to securing supplies. It is on the basis of these realities that we are reminded of the need to be psychologically prepared in advance, not to create panic, but to promote rational premeditation, advance planning, whether home or business, without panic。
Part of the internet is based on the media's preference for “natural gas to boom” and “gas floods”, which are mostly headings that magnify extreme possibilities to capture traffic. At the practical level, the priority of the population's security of life is a rigid principle that does not lead to the lack of security of the population. When we look at the energy market, we should not just look at fragmentary short video messages, focus more on official supply and demand announcements, and rationally distinguish rumours。
In sum, in the coming month and a half, the natural gas rate is likely to re-establish the trajectory of the previous fall and winter: fast-onset demand for gas, full-scale start-up coverage, the possibility of up-front gas costs for business and industry, generally stable gas prices for residents, and a solid overall supply base. Early recognition of this trend, the focus of households on gas safety screening, and the preparation of costs and gas supplies for business and industry will allow them to cope with the autumn and winter seasons。
Topic: what do you think will happen to the gas market this autumn and winter? At home or in the business, have you prepared for winter gas? You are welcome to share your views in the comment area, as well as concerns and the ongoing sharing of useful life information。
