On 9 march, the national institute of statistics published a national consumer price index (cpi) and an industrial producer price index (ppi) for february 2022. The data show that the cpi increased by 0. 9 per cent in february compared to the previous month; the ring ratio rose by 0. 6 per cent, with a slight increase. Ppi increased by 8. 8 per cent and ring by 0. 5 per cent over the same period。
“in february, the overall domestic price level continued to operate smoothly, with a more coordinated upstream and downstream movement.” guo liyan, director of the general situation unit of the china macroeconomic research institute, said。
Pork drops, energy rises, cpi increases generally. Steady
The senior statistician of the urban division of the national statistical office, lixon, stated that in february, the cpi ring increased slightly, with the same year's increase generally stable, as a result of a combination of spring-time factors and international energy price fluctuations。
In terms of ring comparison, cpi increased by 0. 6 per cent, an increase of 0. 2 percentage points over the previous month. According to guo liyan, the price of food items has increased and declined, with 6 per cent, 3 per cent and 4. 8 per cent respectively for fresh vegetables, fresh fruit and aquatic products, affecting a total increase of 0. 29 percentage points for cpi; and 4. 6 per cent and 3. 1 per cent for pork and eggs, respectively. Among non-food items, the price of industrial consumer goods shifted from a flat level last month to an increase of 0. 8 per cent, driven mainly by rising energy prices. The price of services moved from 0. 3 per cent last month to even。
On the same basis, cpi increased by 0. 9 per cent, the same amount as last month. Of these, food prices fell by 3. 9 per cent, an increase of 0. 1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting cpi by about 0. 76 percentage points. Among food products, the price of pork fell by 42. 5 per cent, an increase of 0. 9 percentage points over the previous month. Among non-food items, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3. 1 per cent, an increase of 0. 6 percentage points over the previous month, with petrol and diesel prices rising by 23. 9 per cent and 26. 3 per cent, respectively, increasing from the previous month。
“price running hubs remain stable.” guo li yan indicates. The core cpi, net of food and energy prices, is estimated to have increased by 1. 1 per cent over the previous month by 0. 1 percentage points。
The ppi has fallen four months in a row
The ppi roundup in february was reversed in the same year, influenced, inter alia, by the rise in international commodity prices, such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals。
In terms of ring comparison, ppi declined from 0. 2 per cent last month to 0. 5 per cent. Among them, the price of means of production went from a decline of 0. 2 per cent to an increase of 0. 7 per cent and the price of means of living went from flat to an increase of 0. 1 per cent. International crude oil prices rose sharply, leading to higher prices in domestic oil-related industries, including 13. 5 per cent for oil extraction, 6. 5 per cent for the manufacture of refined petroleum products and 2. 9 per cent for the manufacture of organic chemical materials。
“ppi is again rising after two consecutive months of decline, mainly as a result of rising international commodity prices. As a result of the continuing fermentation of the russian-uu conflict, the combination of limited supplies, panic attacks, speculation factors, etc., has led to recent high prices of energy, metals, and agricultural products.” the leading researcher of china's national bank for life, wing bin, said。
On the same basis, the ppi rose by 8. 8 per cent, which was 0. 3 percentage points lower than last month and fell for four consecutive months. Among them, the price of productive resources rose by 11. 4 per cent, falling by 0. 4 percentage points, and the cost of living by 0. 9 per cent, an increase of 0. 1 percentage points. Of the 40 major industrial categories surveyed, prices rose by 36, the same as last month. The last year's windfall effects of price changes were estimated at about 8. 4 percentage points and the impact of new increases at about 0. 4 percentage points of the 8. 8 per cent increase in the same year in february。
According to guo liyan, in february, the state authorities, using iron ore and coal as the starting point, continued to strengthen the regulation of bulk commodity spot market linkages, which had a positive impact on reducing the volatility of market prices and stabilizing market expectations。
Macro fellow zhou mohua, grand bank financial market department, believes that ppi is expected to continue the downward trend. First, the effects of geo-conflict situations on commodities are twofold. On the one hand, it raises concerns about the rise of large commodities; on the other hand, geo-conflicts can exacerbate the contraction of global demand. Combined with the impact of market supply and demand mechanisms, this will limit the further significant rise in bulk commodities; secondly, the high base effect of last year will be further evident; and thirdly, domestic commodity security measures will be sustained。
Approximately 3 per cent of the cpi expected annual target is achievable
“in the later stages of the outlook, the external environment has become more complex and uncertain, and the impact on our country's input is likely to increase, and the increase in the cpi is likely to increase, but it will continue to remain moderate and volatile at reasonable intervals. Ppi increases are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, but as global supply chains gradually improve, coupled with sustained domestic price stability policies, the year-round downward trend in ppi will not change。
The government's report on its work sets out the desired target of “a rise of about 3 per cent in consumer prices”. Guo liyan stated that the country's economy is resilient, well developed and marketable, with a rich policy toolbox, especially with regard to the year-to-year harvest of food, sufficient capacity to produce pigs, adequate supply of industrial and agricultural products and services, conditions, capacity and confidence to continue to operate at a stable price, and that the cpi target of around 3 per cent per year is fully achievable。
Wing bin argued that the “scissors gap” between ppi and cpi had narrowed further in february and that inflation was still relatively moderate. It is expected that inflation levels in the country will remain within control, under policy regulations such as domestic commodity security and price stability, but will require further attention to future inflation trends. Our economy is at a critical stage of over-grading, with macro-regulation policies formulated and implemented in a manner that insists on “my ownership”, while paying high attention to changes in the external environment and policies and responding to risk shocks。
Letters from daily newspaper/economic newspaper (journalist yurei)
