The recent news that cao dewan had been told by the media that the house price had been cut in 2026, which had been verified on various channels throughout the internet, was false and that cao dewan had not spoken about it in the recent past and was simply a traffic of celebrities. To put aside the rumours, central bank policies and market data show that in 2026, home prices showed three clear signals, affecting not only 41. 5 per cent of households with more than one suite, but also the need to buy a house and keep a common person’s deposit safe in order to understand the trend in order to hold the bag。
First, a high frequency error zone was clarified: “multiple suites must be preserved”. The past era of value-added through hoarding has come to an end, with 7. 3 million sets of second-hand houses registered nationwide, a 20 per cent reduction in the price of large suburban houses still unsuspected, and many housing units may become “cash-flow burdens” and the blind holding can only continue to contain pressure。
Signal 1: house prices have fallen but become more fragmented and the gap between core and peri-urban is widening. In january 2026, the central bank reduced its lpr to 3. 5 per cent for five years or more, and the interest rate on commercial housing was as low as 3. 2 per cent, and the price of the house was still falling despite good policy gains. The price of a 100-city second-hand house fell by 8. 36 per cent in comparison with the same year, the 3rd and 4th-line cities fell by even more than 10 per cent, and the 20 per cent drop in the price of a remote peri-urban house was the norm. Light cases: three small-town owners of a large number of flats, with a 30 per cent reduction in the price of the peri-urban population for three months and no one to watch。
At the policy level, the housing stock has been deepening, and the shanghai and chongqing pilot is expected to expand. Such households are in a dilemma: they want to cash their losses as quickly as possible, and they are afraid of losing too much of their principal at low prices; they have to bear property costs, mortgages, some of the rents on the source are less than 1. 5 per cent, and even interest on the mortgage is not covered. The trend is that peri-urban housing prices on the 3rd and 4th lines or continue to go down, and the first-line core areas are more resistant to falling because they are mature。
Signal ii: interest rates continue to decline and deposits and property gains are double-dip. The interest rate on bank deposits in the first year of 2026 has fallen to 0. 95 per cent, and the central bank has stated that there is still room for a reduction in interest rates, which could converge to 0. 5 per cent in the future, or even near the japanese “zero interest rate” level. By contrast, the interest rate on a one-year deposit fell from 2. 25 per cent to 0. 95 per cent, the interest on a one-year deposit from 22. 25 million to $9,500, and it is no longer realistic to age on the basis of interest。
In a regular case, zhao, who supports his son in opening a seafood cafeteria with $1 million in savings, tried to supplement his old age with earnings, resulting in an external debt of 200,000 for less than a year, owing to insufficient passenger flows and high costs. The market for finance was similarly depressed, with the a share-based loss rate of 81. 1 per cent in january-august 2025, a per capita deficit of 21,000, and an average loss of 20-30 per cent for public funds. Ordinary people find themselves in a dilemma: they are not willing to save their savings at low interest rates, and they are afraid to invest in high-risk financial losses。
At the policy level, the deposit insurance regulations specify that the full amount of compensation up to 500,000 will be paid, with more than that amount to be paid in proportion to liquidation. This means that the concentration of large deposits in a single bank carries a risk of loss of principal, increases losses under interest rates and continues to make preservation of assets more difficult。
Signal three: increased supply and demand imbalances and continued weakening of demand for housing. There are 7. 3 million sets of used rooms nationwide, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand is difficult to change in the short term. At the demographic level, the registration of marriages was only 6. 1 million in 2024, a 20. 5 per cent decrease in the same year, and the demand for married homes fell simultaneously and the desire to enter the municipality had just fallen. At the same time, over the next five years, a national plan is under way to build 6 million housing units, further diverting demand and easing housing stress。
The groups in need are in a difficult position to watch: they want to get back to the car while they are afraid of falling after buying them; they do not buy and are concerned about later price increases in the core areas and missed opportunities. In the light of market trends, price adjustments resulting from the imbalance between supply and demand will continue, and there is just a need to move away from the “no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no。
For different groups of people, landable advice is given: the first line of new housing, the second line of the 8-16 floor in the middle floor, avoid the 1st floor, the top floor, the waist line, and the loan month, which is controlled within 35 per cent of the household's income, gives priority to the use of the provident fund. More than 2 housing units are sold as soon as possible in small, old and small peri-urban areas, with new housing available in the first-line core area; pre-sold housing taxes, property charges, and not dependent on “rent loans”. 3 million+ depositors: 3-4 state-owned or compliance-city comptoirs, single deposit + interest not exceeding 500,000, recognition of deposit insurance labels, no blind start-up, no high-risk management. 4 general depositors (<100,000): state-owned long-term deposits, low-interest, low-cost, low-risk monetary funds available to respond to daily emergencies。
In fact, there is no need for excessive anxiety, and the downside of interest rates and price adjustments are essentially a process of market bubbles. Deposits, though low in interest, are safer than loss of principal; home price adjustments are less in addition to speculative bubbles, the long-term advantage is the need to get in the car and return the house to residential properties. At the core of asset preservation is to avoid high-risk areas and rationalize their allocation according to their own asset size and demand scenario。
