Recently, commodity-based funds have erupted collectively. Since the beginning of the year, 34 out of 35 commodity-based funds (excluding qdii) in the whole market have achieved positive returns, of which the country's silver and silver futures a increased by 27. 46 per cent, surpassing the gold etf list。
However, a high-level shock is unfolding following a sharp rise in commodities. Several fund managers stated that market volatility may be more emotional, and that precious metals still have assigned value in the long run, but that ordinary investors need to manage their finances。
The silver futures fund
Wind data show that, as of 24 may, the bsw futures a year saw an increase of 27. 46 per cent, ranking first in 35 commodity-based funds (excluding qdii) in the whole market. According to the fund's bulletin, the fund's investment objectives are achieved mainly through the holding of a lead contract for silver futures. The fund manager will make a reasonable selection of the subject-matter contract and the timing of the contract, depending on the duration structure of the silver futures and the liquidity of the contracts. Where conditions permit, the fund may also participate appropriately in the non-maintenance contract for silver futures。
Since this year, the price of silver futures has continued to rise, rising by more than 30 per cent during the year, as in the case of the silver futures master contract, and peaking at $873/kg on 21 may. However, with the new height, the main futures contract for silver was significantly adjusted, falling by 4. 99 per cent on 23 may and reporting $7997/kg as at 24 may。
In response, zhao jian, manager, silver futures fund of the state bank, stated that short-term sharp increases would increase the volatility of silver. Taking into account the potential geopolitical disturbances, the demand elasticity of the rebound in manufacturing, and monetary policy expectations, it was suggested that attention be given to long-term investment opportunities for precious metals such as silver。
According to zhao jian, the movement of precious metals, such as silver, against the united states dollar (or the interest rate on dollar debts) has been negative in the long run, i. E., the united states dollar's declining environment is relatively favourable to the performance of precious metals, such as silver. If the fed declines interest rates in the course of the year, it may still be beneficial for silver prices to go up. In addition, the recovery in global manufacturing will also increase demand for upstream resource and industrial goods, taking into account that capital spending in the vast majority of upstream resource industries has been at historically low levels over the past few years and that many commodity prices have shown significant upward elasticity。
The manager of the 800 coloured fund, as confirmed by chongsing, has stated that silver has historically been more volatile because of its financial and industrial combination. In terms of financial attributes, silver is similar to gold, which usually has a demand for supplementation; in terms of industrial demand, silver is used in many areas, such as electronics, photovoltaics and, in recent years, stocks have declined as the demand for silver applications in photovoltaics has increased. In terms of performance over the past two months, the return of gold and silver has become more evident with both the expected reduction of interest rates and the logic of the replenishment, and the latter-market price elasticity may still be greater。
The bean futures etf is approaching history
In addition, it is a matter of concern that agricultural futures etf, represented by etf, is strongly rebounded. As of 24 may, the net value of the fund, 2. 3432, had reached its historical peak of 2. 3728 on 29 august 2023。
It is known that the wachha soybean future etf was one of the first commodities in the country, and the first agricultural future etf. According to the fund's bulletin, the index tracked by the fund is the soybean futures price index of the company's commodity exchange, which can reflect the pattern of investment returns that are consistently invested in soybean futures contracts at large。
Over the past three years, the above-mentioned soybeans have increased by more than 85 per cent. At the same time, the etf share has continued to rise, with the fund's share having increased more than fivefold over the past three years, from 170 million in may 2021 to the latest 705 million。
The price of beans is mainly affected by two factors: on the supply side, mainly by the international soybean price boom and fall; and on the demand side, by the domestic farming sector. Since the second quarter of this year, extreme rainfall has continued in southern brazil, with international soybean prices soaring。
However, investment in commodity futures funds still requires risk attention. The manager of the waqf vegetables futures etf fund had previously stated that, when investing in the commodity futures class etf, investors needed to understand the volatility and potential risks of different commodity prices and make a rational decision on the share of etf funds invested in commodities in personal assets。
Fund managers still value precious metals
More than 90 per cent of the current 35 commodity-type funds (excluding qdii) are for precious metals. Precious metals, represented by gold, silver and copper, have continued to grow since this year, with wind data showing an increase of 18. 4 per cent in futures of large, non-ferrous metals as at 24 may, and an increase of more than 14 per cent in gold etf, etf, etf, etf, etf, etf, ex-sealine gold and etf。
And just over the past week, many gold etfs have experienced a high level of shock, with a sharp reversal after a new net value on monday。
In response, kf indicated that the fed had published the minutes of the policy meeting from 30 april to 1 may, re-placing the eagle. The minutes of the meeting showed that a number of policymakers, concerned about insufficient progress in falling inflation, felt that it would take more time to be confident about falling interest rates, suggesting that the prospect of maintaining high interest rates should continue for longer, and that officials argued that if inflation risks continued to rise, they would not rule out further interest rates. As a result, spot prices for gold and silver have jumped significantly. However, the unanimous expectation of the current market is still one or two interest cuts by the end of 2024, which has not changed with the publication of the proceedings of the current meeting, so market volatility may be more emotional, with asset pricing not necessarily adjusted significantly before. The current level of inflation in the united states is still far from the fed's target of 2 per cent。
According to yellowish, in the future, the fed's interest rate reduction remains an approximate event, overseas liquidity remains relaxed and downward interest rates are expected to boost prices for precious metals. Historically, the opportunity to invest in gold has been of greater concern during the period when the fed's interest rate hike stopped to the expected decline. In the long run, the global central banks’ asset allocation position for gold is rising, central banks are growing their purchases and precious metals are still valued for their configuration。
In the long term, the reasons behind this round's increase in precious metals are, in fact, closely related to the downturn in globalization, the rise of the new energy revolution and the rise in interest rates on united states treasury debt, according to the nwf index and the general manager of the quantified investment department. In the case of gold, for example, inflation in the united states is the leading indicator of international gold prices, which have risen by more than 70 per cent in one to two years, after two high inflation points in the united states over the past two decades. The currency of the united states is currently at its highest level in nearly two decades, with inflation in the united states rising as a result of the new coronary epidemic, and the potential for gold to rise remains high。
However, wang xian, the manager of the gold etf fund at bott, suggested risks. He stated that, while we recognized the overall cattle-market process for large commodities, any asset rise would not be smooth, especially since the recent geo-situation disturbances had somewhat magnified the volatility of commodities, and investors should be involved in trend trading while managing funds。
