Jim rogers received and received an interview on the internet
On 31 january, jim. Rogers, a special professor at boja's business school, said to the internet symposium that the fed would not raise interest rates in the short term and that the united states had begun to go down after the appreciation of the dollar. In recent years, the renminbi has suffered some setbacks against the dollar, but it has appreciated for other currencies, and in the long run it is now the best investment target and has expressed its willingness to take over the renminbi。
Jim rogers, a renowned international investor and finance professor, is known as the wall street myth with buffet, soros and the three leading global financial giants。
During the 10 trading days from 16 to 29 january, the renminbi depreciated by 1 per cent against the united states dollar and market prices were close to the daily minimum. It was not the first time that the renminbi had so much shock, which had experienced similar fluctuations in early 2014 and late 2014, but this led the market to speculate whether the renminbi would be diverted to a devaluation path. According to morgan chase, the chief economist of china, zhu haibin, the renminbi will not continue to depreciate. First, the impact of the devaluation on export industries may be limited. First, too small a depreciation would not be very helpful for exports. If the renminbi declines significantly against the united states dollar, exports can theoretically be supported, but in practice it is difficult to implement, as china's trade surplus reached a record high in the second half of 2014, while the current account surplus rose. The apparent devaluation of the renminbi against the united states dollar is more likely to lead other countries to follow the example of competitive devaluations, which would offset the original purpose of devaluation to support exports。
Second, there are concerns about the double expectations of higher interest rates and devaluation of the renminbi in the united states, as well as the risk that capital outflows may increase. According to morgan chase estimates, capital outflows have not so far been a cause for concern, and to some extent central banks welcome this trend, as it reflects the transfer of foreign exchange assets from central banks to private holdings. However, if the renminbi were to depreciate significantly, policymakers would fear that further capital outflows might lead to a significant decline in external reserves。
Why, then, did people withdraw money in the process
According to rogers, it is simply the insurance of capital, not the investment option. This phenomenon will disappear when future capital flows become fuller and the rmb liberalization expands. “there will certainly be some financial problems and even instability in the next two or three years, and if there are financial problems, many will choose to hold the dollar, because they think it is a secure currency or a harbour, but not at this point, i think that the dollar is a less secure option, because the united states is now the world’s largest debtor, and the accumulation of debt is likely to cause problems in the future. One must understand the fact that there will certainly be a short period in the future in which the renminbi may depreciate, but eventually it will become the only currency that can compete with the dollar. I'd be happy to buy it if anyone wanted to dump it now.”
Zhu haibin also believes that the chinese government is committed to the process of internationalizing the renminbi this year and that discussions are under way this year on whether the renminbi will be included in the imf special drawing rights basket. Under such circumstances, it is unlikely that the chinese official will contribute to the devaluation of the renminbi, which could hinder the process of its internationalization。
From a technical point of view, zhu haibin believes that there is less possibility of further expansion of the renminbi against the united states dollar in the near future, as the spread tends to occur when exchange rate market prices are relatively close to the median, a condition that is not met by current market conditions。
Responsible editor: zhang dei
