# i'm going to the best-chosen-people writing contest #
Today, international spot gold stations have stabilized at $4460/ounces, domestic gold has touched $983/g, and retail prices at gold stores have fallen simultaneously to $1345/g. Most people have classified their behavior as risk avoidance and interest loss, while ignoring the nature of their round of cattle markets: gold is completing its identity transition from a tool to a new global moor. This is not short-term speculation. It is a 100-year revaluation of assets。
I. The truth on the face of the day: the three-tier price-fixing error behind the rise and fall
The international upswing is steady, stemming from the middle east's geo-pricing and central banks, and the funds are not ready to leave
Small fluctuations in domestic gold prices, synchronous shocks with international plates, no unilateral stand-alone movements
The price reduction at the gold store lags behind the big roll, and it's the contraction of the brand premium and the prior-period increase, not the reversal
In the current market, speculative capital is on the short run, central bank funds are locked in the long run, ordinary investors are falling behind the wind, and three tiers of the fund are dislocated, creating a pattern of high-level shocks。
Ii. Subversive perception: the core of the gold rise is not interest rate reduction, but credit collapse
Over the past decade, the price of the gold has been dancing with the fed interest rate; now the logic is completely reversed。
1. Central bank purchases are already in demand
For 16 consecutive years, the world’s central bank has been net buying, and the central bank of china has continued to grow. When the $3. 7 trillion debt peaks, gold is no longer an optional configuration, but a national wealth security floor. It's the power to weld the gold price to the bottom。
2. The ultimate reversal of currency overhang
The continued watering of french currency and the scarcity of physical assets have been highlighted. Gold minerals, with only about 2 per cent of annual supply, are not able to keep pace with global monetary expansion. The devaluation of the currency and the taking of power over the gold are more sustainable drivers of increase than interest rates。
3. Geohazard risk from pulses to normal
Past conflicts have resulted in short-term surges, a reshaping of global patterns and the persistence of risk premiums. The risk avoidance properties of gold have been based on an “incident-driven” escalation-based pricing factor。
Iii. In-depth insight: the core gap between ordinary people and institutions, recognizing in cycles
The organization sees 10 years of cattle, and it is the day-to-day gain or loss that is the problem in the diaspora。
Short-term: increased high-level shocks, high-profile disturbances, high-speed pursuits
What? Medium term: downfall + continued central bank buys money, shock is the main tone
Long-term: the monetary system is reconstituted and the pricing hub for gold will continue to move upwards
The real opportunity is never to go up and down, but to fight short-term fluctuations with long-term logic。
Iv. Recommendations for hands-on work: denial of chicken soup and a plan of action for your landing
Investment category (inflation resistance, asset allocation)
Warehouse position: total assets 10-15 per cent, no heavy storage, no bar bar
Varieties: bank investment gold bars + gold etf dominated, circumventing high premium gold
Rhythms: turn back to the batch layouts and check down 5% of the silos and not pick up
Consumer category (marriage, gifts)
The price of the gold store's retail has fallen, and we just need to get started
Avoid the price, the price, the price
Risk alert
Watch out for leverage transactions. High-level fluctuations can trigger peace
Don't believe in "twice" head. Gold is slow, not speculative
V. Conclusion: the gold cow market, is the text of the time
The price of this round of gold has never been more a matter of merchandise, but a reshuffle of the global wealth order. As currency credits continue to be diluted, gold holds the bottom line of wealth with the constant scarcity of a millennium。
It is more important to understand the logic of money than to focus on the k-line. Long-term configuration is the best way for ordinary people to cross the cycle。
