On thursday (26 march), the global precious metals market suddenly turned its face, and after two consecutive trading days of rebounding, cash gold and silver were hit by " brakes " , with a drop of about 2 per cent within the spot gold day, which is now reported to be in the vicinity of $4440; and cash and silver, which led to a fall of 3 per cent in the day, and a failure of 69 dollars. Meanwhile, domestic futures contracts for precious metals have continued their downward trend, with platinum and platinum futures contracts falling by more than 5 per cent, and silver and gold falling simultaneously。
"seize"
1. Russia sacrificed the " financial iron curtain " : russian president putin signed a decree prohibiting the export from russia of gold strips exceeding 100 grams from 1 may. The act contains exceptions and does not apply to commercial banks. The decree also limits the amount of cash rubles to be carried from russia to the eurasian economic union from 1 april, not exceeding $100,000。
Singapore gold etf official listing: the singapore exchange's first official listing on thursday was only an etf-lionglobal in kind gold etf, which tracks gold from domestic vaults, designed to expand opportunities for retail investors to invest in precious metals. About four months earlier, the fund had conducted off-site transactions for retail and institutional investors on some of singapore's financial service platforms. According to xinjiang, the public listing was an important step in increasing the inclusion of gold in the portfolio of retail investors. The fund is supported in kind by investment-level gold bars of not less than 99. 5 per cent purity。
3. Iran proposes five conditions for an end to the war: an end to the enemy's " aggression and assassination " , the establishment of a mechanism to prevent the recurrence of war, clear compensation for war losses, a ceasefire within all fronts and associated resistance groups, and guarantees of iran's sovereignty over its jurisdiction over the strait of hormuz. Iran has made it clear that the ceasefire presupposes acceptance of all conditions, without prior negotiations. The iranian military has indicated that it is continuously monitoring the movement of the enemy and that if the enemy acts on the ground in iranian territory or increases its defence costs through activities in the persian gulf and the gulf of oman, it will open up a new front to respond; iran has the capacity and willingness to threaten the strait of mande and is fully prepared to escalate the situation。
[line resolution]
Cash gold: the dayline level shows that the price of gold rebounded after touching the 200-day mean line at around $4,100, but was under strong pressure near $4,600 to form the stage top. The current price is in the form of a case shock of $4400-$4600, with a high level of play. The flat-line bonding intersects with the mcd indicator, presages the proximity of the direction selection. If the gold price falls by $4,400, the next round is targeted or pointed at $4300; if the $4,600 is recovered, it is expected that the offensive will resume。
Cash and silver: silver prices continue to attempt to break the 71. 00-72. 00 resistance position. If the spot money can break 72. 00 dollars, it will move towards the next resistance position of 78. 00-79. 00 dollars. Relatively strong and weak indicators are in the medium range, and therefore there is still a significant increase in kinetic energy in the short term。
Cash platinum: the platinum price tried to rise back to the top of the 1980 dollar, but it lost momentum and fell around $1900. If platinum is to gain momentum in the short term, it must remain above the $1880-1900 resistance level. If we can break the 1980 dollar, platinum will go to the next resistance position of $2040-2060. On the support side, if the price of platinum falls by $1880, then it will open the way for testing the nearest holding position of $1785-1805。
Institutional perspective
Silver: the current situation may cause global economic growth to slow down, but on the contrary reduce some of the constraints on gold prices. Rather than viewing the fall as a loss of value for gold, it should be seen as a reversal in the long-term upward trajectory. Gold continues to play an important role in hedge and diversification. Although gold prices may continue to decline, the current level is attractive to long-line investors based on the expectation that prices will eventually rise, with a target of $5900 per ounce at the beginning of 2027。
Goldman sachs: the previous round of gold booms had to some extent deviated from the basics, and the recent revisions therefore also reflected a process of " normalization " of markets. The medium- and long-term maintenance depends on judgement. Gold prices are expected to rise to $5,400 by the end of the year。
Five mineral futures: the current geo-conflict situation has become a central focus of the market, and the trend in gold prices has been significantly disturbed by the information. The recent fall in oil prices has helped to ease global inflationary pressures and, to some extent, the market's concern about the fed's further interest rate hike. The subsequent easing of geo-conflict, high energy prices and supply chain disturbances will gradually ease the pressure on the global economy, and the probability of higher interest rates by central banks is expected to decrease, or gold will be picked up again to raise momentum. However, inflation expectations resulting from high oil prices have not yet been fully reduced, and the fed has been unable to obtain data to support a clear fall in inflation in the short term, adding to earlier cautious statements by central banks that precious metals will continue to face valuation pressures in the short term。
Positive futures: overall, while the signal of conflict mitigation is now being released to the market, the market still has high inflation expectations, pressures on the fed's interest rate reduction policy, and prices of precious metals continue to operate in a weak state of shock. Most of the gold lows continue to be held in silos, and the silos wait patiently. The silver bank was cautious, tried more after the market had collapsed and ended up benefiting from the boom. Precious metals have long been dominated by many。
Futures: the united states recently released a negotiated ceasefire signal, market sentiment eased and gold and silver stabilized. In the short term, the price of gold and silver or the maintenance of volatility, policy expectations, risk avoidance and liquidity competition will continue to dominate this phase, requiring close observation of energy prices, policy expectations and the key supporting positions of the gold and silver. In the medium to long term, the core support, such as high global debt, geo-risks and structural shortages of silver and silver, remains unchanged, and it is expected that, as energy prices fall, there will still be prospects for the future。
Light futures: u. S.-iraq negotiations and the course of conflict are still fraught with uncertainty, which means that gold prices, or in high volatility, can continue to be watched by robust investors, and aggressive investor tactics suggest a low-buy-in-possession configuration. The current movement of silver stingers follows upwards and downwards of gold, making it more difficult to operate, and gold plays a significant role as a precious metal " ballast " , with concerns as to when the price of gold will return to the upward route, waiting for the timing。
In the short term, attention needs to be paid to the course of the middle east war and to the stability of the global stock market, if the war expands, if the global stock market is hit again, if the money and silver are to be disturbed again, if the war is stable, if the global stock market is stable, if the gold and silver are to rebound。
