On 21 october, the national statistical office published data on the development and sale of real estate throughout the country for the first three quarters, indicating that key indicators of the real estate market were being further explored. In this market environment, the expectation of continued policy easing has fertilized in the market since the 9. 30 new deal。
It is clear that october has become the rescue stage for local governments to “sing me out”. Following ningbo's policy of subsidized housing for university students, on 17 and 19 october, tianjin and tsang fong have launched a housing rescue policy, which has been increasing。
“as we understand, most cities on the 2nd and 3rd line are now in reserve, and many have adjusted their policies, and more cities are expected to introduce similar housing subsidies in the four quarters.” a municipal government official in the capital city of an eastern province said to the journalist。
However, industry analyses suggest that this year the central economy has been set to “new normal”, and GDP growth is expected to slow down, and despite local efforts to save the city, v-type reversals are unlikely in the short term。
More than 20 city-subsidized homes
In accordance with the policy adopted by the municipality, persons who purchase the first home for commodities or second-hand housing of less than 90 square metres are granted 100 per cent of the amount of the tax paid; and individuals who purchase the first home for commodities or second-hand housing of more than 90 square metres and less than 144 square metres, and who buy commercial or office housing of less than 300 square metres for start-up activities, 50 per cent of the amount of the tax paid。
Prior to that, on 8 october, the ningbo municipality officially announced its policy on subsidized housing for university students. According to this policy, between 20 september 2014 and 19 september 2015, regular college graduates who have graduated from ningbo for up to 10 years received subsidies for the purchase of their first flat at a total house price of 0. 75 to 1 per cent。
“housing subsidies, tax waivers are the most common policy of local governments to save the city, as they are the most direct and generous policy within the competence of local governments.” chen guoqiang, vice-president of the china real estate society, said。
According to incomplete surveys carried out by journalists on the basis of public information, in more than 20 cities, such as tianjin, shao xing, hangzhou, suining, meishan, copper mausoleum, shun city, xue lake, changsha, nanjing, shenyang, wuhan, changzhou and zhuishima, subsidies for home purchases and tax credits have been introduced。
“in the light of the policies that have been put in place at the local level, the central easing of the policy to purchase the first flat has been tacit, so that at this stage the local rescue policy no longer considers whether it is necessary to test the bottom line at the central level, but more about how to relax in order to be in the best interests of the local city, and the local government cannot afford to put too much financial pressure on it.” the above-mentioned municipal officials in one of the eastern capitals indicated to journalists。
In fact, for local governments, the policy of control over real estate is mainly a combination of provident fund loans, tax breaks and fiscal subsidies, which, according to industry analyses, have been adjusted by at least half of the cities on the 2nd and 3rd line。
“the expectations of the market for policy easing rose once again after the easing of the credit threshold of the central bank, with tax cuts and home-purchase subsidies becoming the main features of the third wave of municipal rescue.” according to zhang daewei, the chief analyst of china's real estate, local rescue policies are becoming more frequent and the bottom line is lower。
According to chen guoqiang, despite the fact that the market for some of the cities is now getting warmer, local governments are disturbed by the high level of stock, the continued difficulty of selling local land and the sharp decline in real estate investment。
“in the case of local governments, policy adjustments such as housing subsidies, tax breaks, etc., are, on the one hand, an attempt to provide concrete benefits to home buyers in order to facilitate market transactions; but, more importantly, it is to increase developers' confidence in the market so as to ensure that local investment can grow.” an in-house analyst, chen kenbo, indicated。
Re-emergence in 2008
“customs have now eased the credit base of the central bank, and a number of banks have taken action, along with policy measures by local governments in the areas of tax concessions, home purchase subsidies, and the easing of public debt loans。
In 2008, as a result of the financial crisis, the national building market generally found itself in a low valley, with a significant decline in turnover. In response, the central government has also spoken “to allow local governments to save the city themselves”. Soon thereafter, initiatives to save the city began to be launched in xi ' an, wuhu, suzhou and chengdu. In addition to the reduction of the initial payment of the provident fund loan and the easing of the length of the loan, some municipalities have introduced policies such as tax exemptions or direct financial subsidies。
According to the most recent data published by the national institute of statistics, during the first nine months of this year the national investment in real estate development was 68,75. 1 billion yuan, an increase of 12. 5 per cent in nominal terms over the same period, and a decline of 0. 7 per cent in the rate of growth. In addition, the share of real estate investment in fixed assets has rarely fallen by 20 per cent. Real estate development enterprises have been able to access funds, market space for commodity houses and sales at a new low level in the year. At the same time, as at the end of september, there were 5,71. 48 million square metres to be sold in commodity houses, a record high。
“for the time being, although the scale and intensity of the local rescue is largely similar to that of 2008, it is difficult for the central government to introduce a massive stimulus policy, as was the case in 2008, so the situation is different this year from that of 2008。
“macroeconomically, the largest difference between this year and 2008 lies in the central judgement of the new economic situation.” on october 21, the deputy director of the centre for the development of urban and small towns reform and development of china, qiu aiwan, said that, from a new normal perspective, china's economy and urban development were undergoing a series of major and profound changes。
“in a new economic normal, if GDP growth is expected to decline, then the central adjustment to the real estate market will also be contained in certain expectations. Although GDP growth will require real estate pull, the expected downwards in the rate of growth will lead to longer periods of real estate recovery and less reversal than in 2008. A head of the state council development research centre said to the journalists。
Responsible editor: zhang dei
