There are very few countries in the world with precise cyclone warnings, such as the united states and canada. Where are the monitoring forecasts for cyclones? On 24 june, the china meteorological service stated that three factors made forecasting more difficult。
It was explained that most countries, including china, currently make early warning forecasts of cyclones to some extent by forecasting strong current weather. The united states tornado alert was achieved with the deployment of the doppler weather radar network, but could only be released a few minutes to ten minutes earlier, with a high rate of air reporting. There have been tragic incidents in the united states where successful warnings of cyclones have resulted in hundreds of casualties。
With regard to the difficulty of monitoring the predictions of cyclones, the china meteorological service indicated that three factors affected the predictions of cyclones。
First, it is “small”, i. E., tornados are a very destructive, small-scale weather phenomenon, typically less than 100 metres in diameter, with strong tornados ranging from a few hundred metres to a mile or so. In contrast to the “big pieces” of these weather systems, typhoons are definitely “small”. At present, our weather stations are not so dense that tornados often avoid the “eyes” of meteorological monitoring。
Secondly, it is “short lives”. Tornadoes tend to clash with current weather in a sudden fashion and affect a relatively short period of time in a given area, with the “life history” ranging from 10 minutes to hours, sometimes even minutes. As a result, it is difficult to forecast strong weather in local areas 24 or 48 hours in advance。
Moreover, its “born” environment is complex. The generation and development of strong convective weather, such as tornados, requires the measurement of integrated atmospheric conditions, which are often unpredictable and imprecise, and which, combined with different topographic factors between regions, further complicate accurate monitoring and forecasting。
