Hot one
Target for economic growth in 2002: a consensus on practical inter-regional values
The year 2026 marks the beginning of the “fifty-fifty-fifty” programme, and the way in which economic growth goals are set is of great interest to all. The setting of targets as inter-temporal values (e. G. 4. 5-5 per cent) was considered to be both positive and pragmatic。
In the “1455” period, the country's total economy rose to 1. 1 trillion yuan, 1. 2 trillion yuan, 1. 3 trillion yuan and 140 trillion yuan, respectively. However, as the current difficult economic performances are intertwined with positive trends, setting economic growth targets requires active pragmatism。
In the medium- and long-term perspective, considering that the total population is expected to decline by about 0. 20 per cent per annum by 2035 and that GDP will need to grow by 4. 17 per cent per annum in the “fifty-five” and “sixty-five” periods, in line with the long-term goal of more than $20,000 per capita GDP by 2035 and doubling from 2020 (in constant terms by 2020). The president of the shanghai university of finance and economics, liu yuanchun, stated that, according to the pattern of “pre- and post-low” economic growth, and in the interest of solid foundations, the “155” period saw an economic growth rate of about 4. 5 per cent. However, if higher standards are to be pursued (e. G., $26,000 per capita GDP), the rate of growth needs to be maintained at around 5 per cent。
The china securities institute reports that the national target is more likely to be set at 4. 5-5 per cent and that the “fifty-five” five-year target is likely to be consistent and set as a spatial value in relation to published local targets。
Globally, while several international organizations, such as the international monetary fund and the world bank, have consistently raised their growth expectations for china in 2026 in their latest forecasts, the world bank and oecd are predicting a slowdown in global economic growth in 2026. In this context, setting targets in a more robust and sustainable zone helps to guide markets towards stable and pragmatic expectations。
It needs to be seen that achieving the goals still requires more active macro-policies. The central economic work conference made it clear that in 2026, “continue to pursue more active fiscal policies” “continue to implement moderate monetary policies” “to enhance macroeconomic policy coherence and effectiveness”. Several experts noted that strong and effective macroeconomic policies would sustain economic growth. Liu xiaogang, vice-president of the national institute for development and strategic studies of the people's university of china and a leading member of china's macroeconomic forum, believes that a more active macro-policy response is needed this year。
In addition to the economic acceleration target, mitigating the “temperature differential” between macro-data and micro-perceptions became a common concern of the experts interviewed. According to pong, a senior researcher hired by the national laboratory of finance and development, the recent movement of cpi and ppi shows that the country's economy is working well, with a gradual recovery on the demand side and a steady improvement in supply-side structures. The cpi target for 2026 remains at around 2 per cent, both at a steady price threshold and commensurate with the current pace of demand recovery. Several experts noted that, in 2026, “temperature differentials” or marginal improvements between macro-data and micro-perceptions had improved with the moderate restoration of ppi and cpi。
Hot two
Long-lasting mechanisms to induce synergies between consumption and investment
“assisting on domestic demand ownership and building strong domestic markets” was the focus of the central economy in 2026. How to break the gap between supply and demand, promote synergies between consumption and investment, and activate new qualitative productivity is expected to be the focus of discussions at this year's two national meetings。
“the two national conferences in 2026 will focus on building systematic, long-lasting mechanisms for domestic demand growth.” the director of the policy simulation laboratory of the national information centre of the national commission for development and reform (ndrc), researcher shaw, said to the times of securities journalists that the discussions were either hot or focused on three levels. The first is how short-term stimulus policies can be translated into long-term institutional arrangements to identify concrete pathways to programmes to scale up domestic demand strategies between 2026 and 2030; the second is how fiscal and monetary policy can be more dynamic and synergistic, including deficit-rate arrangements, interest-rate erosion spaces and the use of new policy financial instruments; and the third is how to stabilize the population's expectations by reforming income-sharing mechanisms and optimizing social safety nets, which will fundamentally address the issue of “capable, aggressive, willing to consume”。
Breaking the gap between supply and demand requires a two-way approach. On the supply side, consumer goods have been renewed by the old-for-new policy, and consumer goods have been further enhanced in terms of availability and demand. An ambitious analysis is expected to deepen this year's consumption upgrading from a simple “incentive for new” to a deeper “directed buy-in” and to focus on improving the suitability of supply and demand. Specifically, on the one hand, the coverage of preferential purchases is expected to extend from consumption of goods to consumption of services; on the other hand, the consumption landscape will expand from “single trade” to “smuggling experience”, with the start-up economy, the race economy and “artificial intelligence + consumption” becoming trends. On this basis, it was considered possible to promote the “vote economy” model, which would allow a single ticket chain to reach the full chain of “eat and enjoy” and achieve the depth of the value of consumption。
On the demand side, the burning of the spring holiday consumer market has revealed the enormous potential of domestic demand. It was argued that the “people-centred” approach should be maintained to unleash consumption dynamics, such as the scientific and orderly promotion of the civilization of agricultural transfer populations, enhanced protection of workers' rights and interests, guarantees of double weekend and statutory holidays “shall be taken”, an appropriate increase in statutory holidays, and the release of service consumption potentials tied to scene experience and leisure time。
Building on the proposal of the “fifty-five” plan, shao ruoxi, deputy researcher, office of development strategies and planning, national information centre of the national development reform commission, believes that this year the two national councils are expected to set up a policy framework of “long-term integration, both symptoms and treatment” that will both stabilize the short-term demand chassis and drive the shift in domestic demand growth from expansion to qualitative improvement, ensuring that the expansion of domestic demand becomes a lasting dynamic during the “fifty-five” period。
At the structural level of long-term excellence, policies will focus on endogenous growth mechanisms that “consumer-upgrading, effective investment support, and institutional innovation”. Choo roo-suk indicated that, on the one hand, the upgrading of consumption could lead to investment, and on the other hand, the deepening of income distribution reforms could lead to a leap in consumption towards service and development, leading to capital investment in emerging areas such as high-quality old age, digital entertainment and so forth, while, on the other hand, effective investments could be made to create new consumption scenarios, such as the simultaneous improvement of recharge poles, nursery facilities and the release of space for new energy and “old and old” consumption。
Hot three
Building on high-quality innovation and self-reliance
Science and technology innovationIt will be the focus of both sessions this year. The “fifty-five” planning proposal proposes to accelerate high-level technological self-reliance and lead to the development of new qualitative productivity. The central economic work conference also made it clear when it deployed its 2026 focus, maintaining innovation as a driving force and intensifying the development of new dynamics。
The founder of the national institute for research and development in the new economy, zukli, said to the securities times reporter that this year, as the year of the 15th century, the two national congresses will certainly place the acceleration of high-level technological self-reliance at the forefront of macro-policy deployments, with systematic initiatives to improve the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system。
In particular, the policy level will strengthen the integration of strategic science and technology, optimize the synergistic configuration of national laboratories, research institutes, universities and leading science and technology enterprises, promote the concentration of innovative resources in key areas and priorities, and enhance the organization and synergy of innovation systems. Policies such as finance, finance, industry, talent, etc. Will also form a combination of instruments that will steadily increase the intensity of r & d inputs, improve long-term mechanisms such as the deduction of r & d costs and the sharing of technological and financial risks, and provide a stable and predictable institutional environment for innovation。
Jukli states that this year’s two sessions will also focus on improving the efficiency of the entire chain of innovation, improving the system of critical links such as scientific and technological evaluation, results transformation, intellectual property protection, and international cooperation, and overcoming institutional barriers to the free flow and efficient deployment of constraints. Strengthening linkages and sectoral synergies through sound cross-sectoral, cross-regional and cross-curricular synergy mechanisms, promoting the integration of innovation chains, industrial chains, financial chains, and deep talent chains, and enabling national innovation systems to leapfrog from scale to effectiveness, supporting the development of new quality productivity with high-quality innovative supplies。
Basic research is a source of innovation and, according to a number of experts in the industry, will focus this year on improving basic research support mechanisms. Against the backdrop of our record high share of basic research funding, the policy will increase long-term stable support for basic subjects such as mathematics and physics, leading to “0 to 1” original innovation for researchers. At the same time, basic research and industrial transformation are linked, and the entire chain from basic research to technology capture to the industrialization of results is being improved, with the creation of cross-platforms, joint conversion funds and a chinese pilot base to accelerate the breakthrough of original innovation。
The integration of education, science and technology, and human resources development will be the focus of the two sessions. According to joukli, the top-level design will also establish a higher level of coherence and coordination mechanisms to address sectoral fragmentation and resource fragmentation. In particular, it will integrate focus on the integration of science and industry, optimize professional adjustment mechanisms for higher education disciplines, expand the supply of scarce talent in priority areas, build institutions of modern industry and future technology, improve incentives for the development of innovative talent, and open channels for the flow of productive research and development to support innovation and industrial chains。
Fostering the growth of new and emerging industries, with forward-looking future industries, is central to the development of new quality productivity. The chukli analysis suggests that this year's two national meetings will further clarify the priorities and policy focus of the track and promote efficient pooling and orderly development of resources. Policies will prioritize new energy sources, low-altitude economies, and new and strategic industries such as artificial intelligence, with the advantage and application of scale, to accelerate the formation of world-class clusters of industries, with scaled-up applications leading to technology overlay and cost reduction, and to real growth dynamics。
The subsequent policies for future industries such as quantum science and technology, bio-manufacturing, sixth generation mobile communications and brain interfaces are also expected to enhance the opening of scenes, fund orientation, financial support and international cooperation to promote the concentration of innovative resources in niche areas and high-quality enterprises, with the aim of building up new industries and future industries。
Hot four
It's a job, it's a job, it's a job, it's a job
From the clear orientation of the central economic work conference “to keep people alive” to the local and intensely released human-policy signals, the national assembly will continue to focus on the plight of the population in 2026, with a view to perfecting and repairing the people's short floorsHuman securityNet。
Employment, which is a source of livelihood, is expected to be a primary concern for the livelihood of the two communities this year. At present, the number of graduates of higher education institutions continues to be high, with new forms of employment flourishing, and overall employment pressures coexisting with structures. For the first time, the central economic work conference systematically proposed “the implementation of stabilization and expansion actions”. In many places, policy signals have also been released in advance: guangdong has proposed more than 1. 1 million new jobs in towns and cities by 2026; hubei and guizhou, among others, have made it clear that they will continue to increase the level of security of services for new employment groups, such as sellers and car drivers。
At present, the construction of social security systems for flexible employment groups lags behind the development of employment patterns, and new forms of employment, the protection of workers in the economic sector in areas such as old-age pension, medical care, unemployment, injury at work, among other issues, continue to be marked by inadequate coverage and poor institutional connectivity, which are clearly short-cuts for the livelihood of this group. Jiang zheng, vice-president of the school of economics and business administration of beijing teacher training university, said to the securities times journalist that priority employment policies needed to be continuously strengthened with a focus on upgrading the job skills of workers and promoting quality employment. (c) to ensure that the income level and job stability of workers are improved and that the employment base for the population is firmly established through the implementation of accurate employment support programmes and the strengthening of vocational skills training tailored to market demand。
The “old and old” guarantee, which is directly related to the well-being of thousands of families, is expected to be the focus of discussions in the area of livelihood for this year. Jiang jing stated that the combination of child-care benefits and old-age support policies would create a two-way depression for families, effectively reduce the burden of rigid expenditure on old age and child-rearing in families, and establish a life-cycle protection line for families。
Sha yijin, a researcher at the experimental tax research centre of the people's university of china, also told journalists that the current network of old-age services in the counties and rural areas, the inclusive care system, the low coverage of long-term care insurance, and the absence of a unified national institutional framework still exist. This year it is expected that the focus will be on promoting the system's expansion in order to achieve a two-way escort of sunset and sunset。
Improved health coverage and the introduction of social security standards will also be important in the deployment of the two communities this year. Currently, the problems of unequal distribution of health resources between urban and rural areas, weak capacity for primary health care and heavy burden of health care for some groups remain to be addressed, and many initiatives such as the construction of health-care links, the sub-doctors, and the extension of health-care facilities have continued. The director of the china institute for reform and development (hainan) pointed out that the issue of overburdening individuals with basic health insurance in urban and rural areas should be given high priority, and that financial resources should be increased in order to supplement the health-care system in rural areas。
In response to the problems of inadequate parity in public services and weak security for low-income groups, sarjin indicated that there was a need to further improve the accuracy and predictability of central transfers and to implement regular and institutionalized support for areas with a heavy population burden and a weak financial base. This year, it is expected that the health-care system will continue to be optimized, social coverage will be expanded and bottom-up coverage will be increased for disadvantaged groups, with a view to improving the security of life。
Hot five
Urban renewal and “good houses” as potential new dynamics
One head is linked to the other, the other to the other, and real estate is the focus of attention twice a year. The central economic work session emphasized “investing in stability”Real estate marketThis year, the ministry of housing, urban and rural construction will focus on the following areas: businesses interviewed by the securities times reporters believe that urban renewal and “good house building” are two potential new dynamics for stabilizing the real estate market and will also be a hot spot for attention this year。
A number of positive changes are taking place in the real estate market, supported by a number of policies, in particular the recent warming of the used house market. The director of the china institute of housing and real estate, zhejiang university of industry, yu xiaofan, told journalists that despite the existence of local bright spots in the market, the indicators of investment in real estate development, sales and so on are still declining, and how to further stabilize the real estate market will remain a hot spot for this year。
Since the beginning of this year, the new city policy has been announced in hunan, chongqing, guangdong and other places, and the recent easing of the purchase restrictions in shanghai has set off positive signals for stabilizing the real estate market. The chinese vice-president of the institute, yoga, predicts that the “stable-building” policy will continue to fall, focusing in the short term on demand promotion and supply optimization, including the continued reduction of interest rates on mortgages, the reduction of intermediation costs, the increase in tax credits on mortgages, the increase in subsidies for home purchases, and the continued increase in the collection of stock of commodity houses and idle land. In the medium to long term, efforts will continue to focus on improving basic systems, optimizing the provision of secure housing and building “good houses”。
“cities renewal and `good house building' are two of the most important potential new dynamics in the real estate sector and will also be a hot spot for attention this year.” wu xinlong, director of the centre for real estate research at the university of qinghua, told journalists that institutional exploration and pilot projects would be carried forward throughout the year。
The chairman of the wise and wise group and co-chairman of the csig, zing zhu zhu zhu zhu zheng, also believe that urban renewal brings together population groups on the side of the new demand for urbanization, optimizes supply through stock-sharing and upgrading of facilities, directs investment and consumption and aligns with high-quality real estate development. Urban renewal, through the construction of good houses, good neighbourhoods, good neighbourhoods and “fours”, not only meets the high quality of life needs of the population, but also provides a space vehicle for the development of new industries in new forms of business, promotes the transformation of real estate enterprises from traditional development sales to the holding of operational services, and helps build new models of real estate development。
The institute expects that new urban renewal mechanisms will be further accelerated this year and that accompanying financial, fiscal, land and other support policies will be expected to gradually subside, thus improving the efficiency of urban renewal and improving the combined efficiency of urban renewal and investment and consumption。
Previously, the ministry of housing stressed that the quality of real estate development was ultimately about “good houses” for the people, and that building “good houses” would be the new course for industrial transformation and development, further clarifying the importance of “good houses” construction. Last year, the ministry of housing has fully deployed the construction of “good houses” and this year will guide local efforts。
Ding zuzu believes that this year's “good house” policy will be further strengthened, with greater coverage and coverage, not only for the development of new homes, but also for the further integration of urban renewal and the release of greater space for industrial development. The “good house” will be the central industrial policy that deserves the greatest attention in our real estate in 2026 and the next decade。
This article was originally published in the securities times on march 3rd
