International gold prices dropped by more than 4 per cent a day, on 3 march, rebounded at the bottom on 4 march, entered high-level shocks and, on 5 march, market sentiment shifted from panic to watching. By 8. 30 a. M. On 5 march, domestic gold prices were running out of line and the price differentials between raw materials, investment funds and jewellery gold were clear. This paper provides a complete judgement in the light of the latest developments, the inverse logic, the scenario decision-making and operational discipline, and helps ordinary consumers and investors avoid mistakes and rational decision-making。
I. Updated 5 march gold prices (8. 30 a. M. As at 5 march)
The gold price system is divided into four main tiers, each of which corresponds to different costs and uses, so that the price differentials can be recognized in order not to be unjust。
1. Large domestic stock prices for raw materials (pricing benchmark)
Au9999: $1143-1146/g
Gold t+d: $1143. 42/g, drop 0. 66 per cent daily
The main company: $114,4. 2/g, falling 0. 23 per cent daily
This is the cost threshold for all gold products, and banks, gold stores and recycling are priced against this benchmark. Ordinary consumers cannot buy directly at this price, but it is the core rule that judge the price of all gold products, and any product above this price is a higher premium。
2. Bank investment gold bars (prior to pure investment)
Work like gold bars: $161. 27/g
Bank investments: $1161. 50/g
Medium gold bars: $162. 10/g
Peace bank: $1169. 40/g
Banco pufa: $1204/g
A premium of only $18-61/g, close to the big offer, supported buy-backs, with no brand name and high pay premium, is the best option for preserving investments. Bank gold bars are highly mobile, repurchase channels are regulated and suitable for long-term configuration and preservation needs, with value for money far higher than gold shop jewellery。
3. Branded gold store fulls (excluding work costs)
Zhou dafu/daifu: $1599/g, 3. 21% daily
Fengxiang: $1587/g, 3. 35 per cent daily
Weekly: $1596/g, 3. 27% daily
Gold to the top: $1597/g, 3. 21 per cent daily
The premium for raw materials is more than $450/g, which includes brand premiums, door-to-door rents, labour costs, taxes and basic works, and is suitable only for consumption and not for investment. When added to the process fees, the actual hand price is generally over $1650/g, and the premium is fully lost at the time of recovery。
4. Gold recovery prices (harmonized standards)
Mainstream recovery: $1135-1145/g
Banks/professional institutions: $1110-1120/g
Recovery is based only on purity and gravity, regardless of brand, style, purchase channel, and the price of the gold store's high jewellery is lost in full on the price and cost. This price reminds consumers that buying gold is consumption and buying gold bars is investment and that the two cannot be confused。
Ii. One-night reversal: 3-5 march logical breakdown
The deep v reversal of this round is not an accident, but the result of a multi-factor resonance that understands the logic behind it in order to judge the subsequent course of action。
1. 3 march: breaking fire
The profit pool is closed: the cumulative increase in the opening year's value is nearly 28 per cent, a record high, a short-term build-up of a large amount of revenue, a large-scale drop-off of funds, and a trigger for “skilling” steps。
The expected cooling of interest rates: 275,000 new non-farmers in the united states in february, strong data, enhanced "high interest rates" longer, a rebound in the dollar index, rising returns on us debt and suppressing interest-free gold. The price of gold is negative and the higher the interest rate, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold。
Avoidance has receded: the situation in the middle east has not escalated, the signs of conflict defusing have been released, the inflow of hedge funds has been rapidly withdrawn and the gold has lost its vital support by shifting to assets such as the united states dollar and the united states debt。
Technological fragmentation: international gold prices fell by $5,100/ounce key support, procedural cut-off sheets were activated, resulting in negative feedback of "minus-cut-accelerated" and further magnified。
March 4-5: touchdown and shock
Bottom-up entry: the price of gold fell to $5050-5100 per ounce, with long-term funding, and central bank demand for money entering the field, with strong support. The global central bank has been buying net for many years and has become the price stabilizer。
Market sentiment recovery: panic eased after the crash, plenty of space entered the game and domestic gold prices stabilized between $1130 and $1150/g without falling unilaterally。
Core findings: short-term unilateral rises in favour of high-level shocks, increased volatility but unbroken long-term support, and unaltered cattle market patterns。
Iii. Are we going to make a deal now? Needs-specific decision-making
Buying gold presupposes demand, consumption and investment logic are completely different, and one-size-fits-all decision-making is inevitable。
1. Just-to-exceed consumption (marriage/gift/day wear)
Conclusions: cost-effective, available
The price of the gold shop fell by 70-100 dollars/g at a higher point than in the preceding period, and 30 grams of bracelets saved 2,000+ dollars, resulting in a significant decrease in costs. The core of consumption is the use and emotional value, which is more secure when it comes to low-intensity without the need to bet the lowest。
Recommendations:
1 priority is given to g-based gold, avoiding a single price, 3d hard money, 5g gold, and high-cost old-fat gold, which has a premium of over $200/g and a significant recovery loss。
2 a fee of $5-20/g can be cut down further by selecting low-cost, marketable outlets compared to many gold shops。
3 buys on demand, does not blindly hoard, avoids overconsumption and treats gold as ornaments rather than assets。
2. Investment preservation (gold bar/cumulate/gold etf)
️ conclusions: no sooja, low-suction, steady configuration
Gold prices remain historically high, with high short-term volatility and high one-time risk of full storage. Ordinary investors should be guided by the principle of "share-building, position-control, long-term holding"。
Core policy:
1 1130-1140 yuan/g (large capitalization): small silo test water, 30% of total budget。
2 breaking $1,100/g: increase the warehouse position with an additional 30-40 per cent budget。
3 the remaining funds are kept on standby, high and low, and the cost of holding a warehouse is smooth。
4 family gold is allocated to 10 per cent of total assets, gold is a "vailed stone" and not a "battle earner's power" and over-representation reduces overall returns。
Optimal types: bank investment gold bars, bank deposits, gold etf, low rates, high liquidity, close to large capitalization, best value-saving。
3. Short-term speculation (discount, band)
Conclusion: inappropriate, extremely risky
Short-term gold prices are influenced by the united states dollar, interest-rate expectations, geology, and financial sentiment, with fluctuations of up to 20-30 yuan/g in the daytime, with no precision for ordinary bulkers. Short-lines require expertise, time for eye-talking, high-risk tolerance and 90 per cent of ordinary people suffer losses as a result of high-strength killings. It is important to stay away from leverage, futures and external gold and to avoid substantial losses of principal, which is more important than profit。
Iv. Iron discipline in gold operations (mandatory)
Consumption and investment, together with discipline, can avoid 90 per cent of pits。
(b) non-stalking, non-substantiation, bulk purchasing, position control: unsatisfied at any time, unsuspecting, disciplined risk management。
Consumer jewellery, investment gold bar/etf: distinction of use, not treating gold shop jewellery as an investment item, and not spending an unfair premium。
Recovery depends only on purity and gw: the brand is not premiumed and the recovery price is uniform at feedstock prices without having to pay for the brand。
Investments are made only with idle money: no loans, no misappropriation of living expenses, no leverage, and no pressure on liquidity to be forced to cut。
Long-term holding of winning short-term games: the core value of gold is anti-inflation, hedge risk, with a holding cycle of at least one to three years, while short-term increases and declines are ignored in order to reflect value in the long term。
V. Trends after 5 march
Combined with the basics and the technical aspects, the subsequent trends can be divided into two dimensions, short and medium。
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks)
Trends: high-level concussion dominated, with a domestic support position of $1130-1150 and a resistance position of 1200。
Logic: break-in, bottom-up, multi-spaced balance, high innovation and sharp collapse, dominated by inter-temporal shocks。
2. Medium term (3-6 months)
Cow patterns remain unchanged, convulsions go up, low points rise。
Support: the core elements of the continued global central bank buy-in, the persistence of geo-conflicts, inflationary resilience, and the fed’s probability of falling interest rates by over 90 per cent in june have not disappeared, and there is still an upward trend in gold prices。
Key observations: the fed's interest rate reduction rhythm, the united states dollar index, the situation in the middle east, domestic demand in kind, and four major factors determine the direction of the medium-term gold price。
Summary
After a sharp reversal in gold prices on 5 march, the market returned to rationality and did not rise unilaterally. Just-to-exceed consumption is now cost-effective, investment preservation is low in batches, and short-line speculation is strongly abandoned。
The essence of buying gold is to provide security for family assets rather than a tool for overnight prosperity. The price hierarchy, the distinction between consumption and investment, the discipline of operations and the control of the percentage of positions, whether price increases or declines, can be easily met and wealth protected。
