At this point on may 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20, 20th, 20, 20th, 20, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th, 20th you think the bag is tight and your eyes are staring at the house price? A lot of people are saying that the second-line city's "ying chun" is not a replica of that big cow town in 2015
We have to figure it out. The truth is always in the numbers. The rent rate of return in 50 major cities across the country is 2. 6 per cent higher and the 30-year national debt rate is even lower, with rent returns even reaching 5 per cent in vulnerable secondary cities such as harbin. What concept? The house is an antique, and the cash flow properties have won the national debt. It's time to buy a house. It's no longer a game of playing the drums, and the scales are even in the minds of the wage earners. The sum of 3 million will be calculated by anyone who takes down 5 million previous houses, offers and rents. In beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen, the data for march were very good, with the new house going up and falling for 11 months. The shanghai used room was sold for 31,000 units, five years high; beijing was close to 20,000 units, the highest in 15 months; and hangzhou was strong, close to 10,000 units, double the ring. In 20 key cities, the second-hand rooms have reached 17 million square metres and have come up in volume, at prices that have not yet moved, and have only just had to sweep and stare at the “old”。
Why is it the "old and small"? For simple and harsh reasons, rentals are lower than there, prices are broken down and the threshold is lower. The landlords who had been on high guard in earlier years could not stand up and cut themselves off, and the price fell. This combination of punches, combined with the peak of the rolls, has been smoothed down in beijing in previous years. The main force that entered the wave was not a house changer, but just needed it. What does that mean? That means the simplest fundamentals are back。
In turn, the bottom line is often not broken by rich people. At the time of the second quarter of 2025, improvements had been made, resulting in a sharp drop in housing prices in a quarter, which had broken people's hearts. Now, this view is healthy. Overseas experience suggests that the bubbles in the building market have collapsed, with the median falling in a six-year cycle, and we peaked in 2021, extrapolating to the bottom around 2027, with a tight line of cities that could land in 2026. Even goldman sachs is placing the bottom of shenzhen in shanghai at the end of this year, predicting a cumulative increase of 15 per cent by 2028. These institutions can only listen, but there is consensus that price adjustments are in place. In 2025, the price of second-hand houses in the 30-city focus fell by 39 per cent compared to historical peaks, with first-line cities falling by an average of 37 per cent, and old and small prices reverted directly to 2016。
It must be time to ask if, since we can go to stock in 2015, can we copy the big, big deal now? At this point in time, it was the monetization of the sheds, the opening of the central bank, the opening of the water, the opening of the bank, the flow of money into the house of demolition, and the sale of the building, which was the urbanization dividend, the deleveraging of the demographic dividend, and the twisting of the three forces into a rope. And now? The urbanization has culminated, the population has grown negatively, and the flood loads have become impossible. Over the years, the next cycle has been long, well beyond the 2014 wave, and the policy radius clearly covers only the first and second-line core zone。
The old experience of rising house prices has failed and the rationale has changed in valuation. In the past, housing had grown like a growing stock, income had risen by 10 per cent a year, and housing prices had risen even more sharply, betting on the high growth of the next decade. Now the house has become a value unit, depending on the current cash flow, the basics have to go down the stairs and the valuation has to be pressed again, which is how double-killing occurs. The policy is one, the market is cold, and that is marginal decline. The game of real estate, the role changed. The share of GDP has slipped from a peak of more than 30 per cent to less than 20 per cent, with new energy, electricity, artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing taking over the flag. In 2025, national investment in real estate development was 82,788 million yuan, a decline of 17. 2 per cent, which is still incomplete。
The flow of inter-urban flows is also reshuffled according to industry logic, with long triangles, beads, strangulations and loss of blood in small towns in the north-east and central-western regions. However, the population was less poor than expected, the mortgage rate was lower, savings were rising and there was no united states-japan-type depletion. The manufacturing sector is clean, and the most difficult is local government land finance. Since the beginning of this year, the policy has changed, with a parallel approach between commodity housing and secure housing, and the acquisition of stock by the government as a guarantee house and a talent house, both to digest stocks and to feed the population。
See? The same toolbox can't produce exactly the same results. The year 2015 was one of leverage plus dividends, and 2026 was only one of “concentrating houses in the core areas” and the three and four lines had to be grounded. At this point in time, ordinary people don't gamble in the country's big bulls, they have to see where their assets are. The scarcity of land, combined with the return of cash flows, is the true anchor of wealth after the end of the wheel. Real estate is returning to its source, a test of holding income and no longer a rich machine。
