In the first half of 2026, the city of front-line urban buildings was extremely divided: low gross prices were active with tens of millions of high-end houses, while middle-price housing sources were trapped in circulation, and the market was characterized by a clear “dumbell” recovery. This division is not short-term fluctuations, but a structural shift in population, policy and asset revaluation. # low total priceJust need a room: the policy-driven “snatch-to-buy” is now concentrating its purchasing power on low-cost sources. In may 2026,** the shanghai second-hand room network signed 2,8023 units**, which is a new high for the same period in almost six years. The composition of the transactional structure is highly concentrated: ** the percentage of transactions under $3 million in beijing is 78 per cent,** and 70 per cent in shanghai. (blockview://markdown-image-tos-cn-i-tt/9f4f979d95d65eb4f9a62aa8f306e6a) - ** price-diplomatic resuscitation demand**: after two years of adjustment, old sub-house prices in the center of the city generally fell and the value of the value of the performance was prominent. The shanghai micro-house type (a large house with a total value of more than $50 million in the shanghai ring) has grown sharply from 20 per cent in 2023 to 83 per cent in the first four months of 2026. The shenzhen mansion market is equally hot. In may 2026,** a project in shenzhen bay added 78 large seascape layers at a total cost of 51. 5 million, which was sold half an hour**, of which a top floor unit price was nearly $400,000 per square metre. Purchasing power comes from a wide range of sources, including local high net value groups, new industrialists and even 100 hong kong residents visiting the houses. Against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, scarce properties in the core sector are considered the most reliable “pressure rock” assets. # intermediate price housing: the “blocking points” on the replacement chain are in sharp contrast to the heat of fire at both ends, and the flow of intermediate housing sources is severely hampered at a total price of between 3 and 10 million districts. ** long transaction cycle**: in the first quarter of 2026,** the average second-hand house in key cities nationwide lasted 187 days**. ** the replacement chain is broken **: approximately 60 per cent of the country's replacement owners** need to sell old houses for new ones, ** 30 per cent of which will eventually abandon the improvement plan because they cannot sell them.** - ** market share decline**: in shanghai, 3-5 million houses account for 22 per cent of the april deal, well below 3 million. Such sources of housing, usually of old age, non-core, or household-type hard-on condition, are caught in an awkward situation of “failure to buy, improve” and form a critical link in market mobility. # behind the divide: behind the divide between the “dum bell” of the city of population, policy and asset revaluation is a recasting of multiple bottom logics. ** the continued concentration of population and industry in high-energy cities** reinforces the value of core assets. The policy is characterized by a hierarchy of support: one end releases high-end demand through the build-up fund, storage bottom demand, and the other by untying the core area. However, the policy transmission effect of intermediate demand for improvement has not been evident. The market is experiencing a profound ** revalue of assets**. The era of boom ended and property values returned to “areas, resources, productive power” itself. The agency reported that 2026 was the year in which the “negative cycle” of real estate was broken and that it was expected that the “second tier” of priority urban housing prices would be positive but that the recovery was structural. (blockview://markdown-image-tos-cn-i-t/2d790b66c204674ab555b09776f9a52)# # future outlook: structural recovery to normal market segmentation is expected to continue in the long term. The chinese securities forecast,** the 2027 front-line cities and those partially benefiting from the development of new and emerging industries are expected to lead to a “first-class” shift in home prices**. However, three- and four-line cities still face a long inventory clearance process. For home buyers, decision-making must give up the illusion of a return to residential properties and the possession of core resources. There is just a need to focus on the small core areas highlighted by the value for money; the time and financial costs of improving the actuarial chain of replacement for households; and investors to stay away from intermediate housing sources that lack core advantages. The future of the city belongs to those assets that provide certainty。
